Lichtman has obviously falsified the second and almost certainly the fourth key (Johnson and Stein will almost certainly have more than 5% together and they take more votes from Clinton than from Trump). But to his defense, his model has no way to react to the challenger party losing an easily winnable election because they nominated a terrible candidate, which is not surprising when you consider it hasn't happened any time recently (1948 is probably the last time it happened, considering that the Republicans should have won by the Lichtman keys).
