Trump +2 in CNN/ORC National Poll
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  Trump +2 in CNN/ORC National Poll
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Author Topic: Trump +2 in CNN/ORC National Poll  (Read 5576 times)
uti2
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« Reply #50 on: September 06, 2016, 09:02:21 AM »

HRC is the worst candidate in modern history? Who in her circle is giving her such bad advice? and the worst part I can't tell if she is concerned at all if people perceive as honest or trustworthy.


Her advisers are people like Kagan and Romney donors, neocons who are telling her to reach out to republicans at the expensive of the left, which as a consequence is exactly what is irritating the actual Democratic base.
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #51 on: September 06, 2016, 09:13:31 AM »

The first major poll to show trump with a lead since the DNC, right? Very disappointing...


white non-college grad:
Trump 66%
Clinton 23%
Johnson 6%
Stein 1%

Man, that's awful. This is heavily mirroring the Brexit vote, no? The lesser educated masses standing together and making their voices heard. Idk how Clinton can make inroads with this group, they seem very attracted to Trump and his reaction-ism.


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Does this imply a trump lead in Wisconsin and MI? Who would've thought the south would be a tossup and the midwest solid R. Maybe the map is changing this year after all? It's just one poll, but I guess we'll see.

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Pretty even on the favorable ratings...I thought Trump would lose the election based on his personality, but it's looking far from certain on that front.
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Beezer
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« Reply #52 on: September 06, 2016, 09:15:41 AM »

What a surprise. Who'd have thought taking August off to wine and dine your big donors could have a negative effect on poll numbers.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #53 on: September 06, 2016, 09:18:08 AM »

What a surprise. Who'd have thought taking August off to wine and dine your big donors could have a negative effect on poll numbers.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #54 on: September 06, 2016, 09:58:15 AM »

CNN wants to keep the horse race going, which explains this poll.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #55 on: September 06, 2016, 10:01:09 AM »

CNN wants to keep the horse race going, which explains this poll.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #56 on: September 06, 2016, 10:07:50 AM »

CNN did this "shock" routine right after the RNC showing Trump with a lead while the cross tabs then were all wacky with HRC underperforming with blacks and latinos.

Now we get another "shock" poll with just as wacky cross tabs. The white electorate reverts back to election 2000 and the percentage of non college educated significantly increases.

I'll say the same thing as the last shock CNN poll - there next poll will revert to more sensible cross tabs and show a comfortable Clinton lead.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #57 on: September 06, 2016, 10:16:01 AM »

The incredibly biased media does it again!
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #58 on: September 06, 2016, 10:29:45 AM »

F**k the media! They are disgusting!
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #59 on: September 06, 2016, 10:40:15 AM »

This poll doesn't make much sense in light of, well, every other poll. It seems like an outlier even though CNN is reputable.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #60 on: September 06, 2016, 10:42:06 AM »

It's 44-41-9-3 to Clinton on RV rather than LV. Modelling who's actually going to vote (see Reuters) is causing much of the divergence in national polls.
Nate Silver about this issue.

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Let's hope Smiley
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #61 on: September 06, 2016, 10:49:59 AM »

Trump is at 55-34 among whites as a whole. That's nearing Romney's showing.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #62 on: September 06, 2016, 12:27:01 PM »

What a surprise. Who'd have thought taking August off to wine and dine your big donors could have a negative effect on poll numbers.

Or maybe it has something to do with the neverending trickle of FBI-related stuff combined with Trump not putting his foot in his mouth as bigly as he usually does, which usually takes the attention away from Clinton. She has still been advertising, and her not being on the trail as much isn't going to represent such a drop.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #63 on: September 06, 2016, 12:28:06 PM »

Not sure what America you are polling to end up with a R+4 sample.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #64 on: September 06, 2016, 12:29:04 PM »

yikes - not gonna try to unskew, just hope this is an outlier.

The margin for whites sounds about right for a Republican win - 21 points is better than Romney's 20.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #65 on: September 06, 2016, 12:34:02 PM »

Not sure what America you are polling to end up with a R+4 sample.

They polled over a holiday weekend.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #66 on: September 06, 2016, 12:38:19 PM »

What a surprise. Who'd have thought taking August off to wine and dine your big donors could have a negative effect on poll numbers.

Or maybe it has something to do with the neverending trickle of FBI-related stuff combined with Trump not putting his foot in his mouth as bigly as he usually does, which usually takes the attention away from Clinton. She has still been advertising, and her not being on the trail as much isn't going to represent such a drop.
No offence, but it is sad, if it is enough to revert the race from Clinton +10 to tie...
Actually, I'd panic if it was enough and I was you...

She've outperformed him 15 to 1 in ads so far...
Just saying Smiley
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #67 on: September 06, 2016, 12:38:56 PM »

Not sure what America you are polling to end up with a R+4 sample.

They polled over a holiday weekend.
Is it R-friendly period?
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DrScholl
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« Reply #68 on: September 06, 2016, 12:39:57 PM »

CNN polled over the weekend because they knew that it would probably produce a result that would feed into the horse race narrative. But the few Trump supporters that exist needs to something to be excited about and we have to let every dog have it's day.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #69 on: September 06, 2016, 12:48:17 PM »
« Edited: September 06, 2016, 12:53:33 PM by Fusionmunster »

So CNN has a habit of polling over Labor Day weekend:

2008 - They released a poll taken during 8/29 - 8/31 showing Obama up +1.
2012 - They release a poll taken between 8/31 - 9/3 and showed a tied race.
2016 - We have this R-heavy poll taken over Labor Day weekend.

Edit: If someone wants to tell me they are not doing this on purpose then by all means.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #70 on: September 06, 2016, 12:50:07 PM »

i mean, Trump is winning whites without a college education by 44 points. If he keeps up that margin and pumps up turnout a win is not inconceivable.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #71 on: September 06, 2016, 01:01:26 PM »
« Edited: September 06, 2016, 01:04:19 PM by LittleBigOctopus »

Have you missed other A national polls?
AUG. 9-16   Pew Research Center                 Clinton+4 (-5)
AUG. 18-24 QU                                         Clinton+7 (+5)
AUG. 25-28 Monmouth University               Clinton+7 (-6)
AUG. 28-30   Fox News                          Clinton+2 (-7)
AUG. 26-SEP. 1   IBD/TIPP                          Tie            (-4)
SEP. 1-4   CNN/Opinion Research Corp.      Trump+2   (-10)

Average:                                                   Clinton+3  (-4.33)

Clearly change of race in QU is an outlier. Even CNN might be an outlier.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #72 on: September 06, 2016, 01:03:10 PM »

So CNN has a habit of polling over Labor Day weekend:

2008 - They released a poll taken during 8/29 - 8/31 showing Obama up +1.
2012 - They release a poll taken between 8/31 - 9/3 and showed a tied race.
2016 - We have this R-heavy poll taken over Labor Day weekend.

Edit: If someone wants to tell me they are not doing this on purpose then by all means.

Well, in fairness, McCain was in the lead on aggregate right about now.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #73 on: September 06, 2016, 01:03:40 PM »

i mean, Trump is winning whites without a college education by 44 points. If he keeps up that margin and pumps up turnout a win is not inconceivable.
I was saying it in month Smiley

It is a real possibility.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #74 on: September 06, 2016, 01:12:27 PM »

i mean, Trump is winning whites without a college education by 44 points. If he keeps up that margin and pumps up turnout a win is not inconceivable.

That's going to be hard considering he has such a weak ground game, and less education is correlated pretty strongly with weaker turnout.
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