Doomed to Fail - The 2024 Democratic Primaries

[LLR]

Introducing... DOOMED TO FAIL

The basic premise of this TL is to be a look at the 2024 democratic primaries, with a very mathematical approach to delegate allocation. I'll pay attention to every congressional district, perhaps even every superdelegate. The results will not be predetermined - soon, I'll create the Iowa results and the primaries will continue from them, but I won't know much more than you will.

The Candidates (The Doomed Seven):

Sen. Kamala Harris (CA) 18%
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (MN) 15%
Gov. Seth Moulton (MA) 12%
Gov. Gavin Newsom (CA) 12%
Sen. Cory Booker (NJ) 10%
Rep. Joaquin Castro (TX) 7%
Gov. Tulsi Gabbard (HI) 6%


"Harris, Klobuchar Take Lead In Unprecedented Diverse Field"


Thanks for reading! Please comment !

[GoTfan]

Introducing... DOOMED TO FAIL

The basic premise of this TL is to be a look at the 2024 democratic primaries, with a very mathematical approach to delegate allocation. I'll pay attention to every congressional district, perhaps even every superdelegate. The results will not be predetermined - soon, I'll create the Iowa results and the primaries will continue from them, but I won't know much more than you will.

The Candidates (The Doomed Seven):

Sen. Kamala Harris (CA) 18%
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (MN) 15%
Gov. Seth Moulton (MA) 12%
Gov. Gavin Newsom (CA) 12%
Sen. Cory Booker (NJ) 10%
Rep. Joaquin Castro (TX) 7%
Gov. Tulsi Gabbard (HI) 6%


"Harris, Klobuchar Take Lead In Unprecedented Diverse Field"


Thanks for reading! Please comment !

Why isn't  Tim Kaine running?

[LLR]

First, some background:

2016

Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 369 EVs, 48.5%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence 169 EVs, 43%
Gary Johnson/William Weld 0 EVs, 6%
Others 2.5%


2020

Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 285 EVs, 50.3%
"Little" Marco Rubio/Cory Gardner 253 EVs, 48%
Others 1.7%


2024 Electoral Map

[LLR]

Why isn't  Tim Kaine running?

66-year-old VP Kaine felt he was too old, but in reality he knew there was no chance of winning a fifth straight term, and decided to retire rather than commit political suicide.

[LLR]

2024 Iowa Democratic Caucuses

47 Delegates will be allocated tonight.

Results

Klobuchar 25%
Harris 20%
Newsom 16%
Booker 14%
Moulton 10%
Gabbard 9%
Castro 6%


At-Large delegates:

Klobuchar 7
Harris 6
Newsom 5
Booker 4
Moulton 3

CD delegates:

IA-1: Klobuchar 3, Harris 2, Booker 1
IA-2: Klobuchar 2, Harris 2, Newsom 1, Moulton 1
IA-3: Harris 2, Klobuchar 1, Newsom 1, Booker 1
IA-4: Klobuchar 3, Harris 1, Gabbard 1


Delegate count:

Amy Klobuchar 16
Kamala Harris 13
Gavin Newsom 7
Cory Booker 6
Seth Moulton 4
Tulsi Gabbard 1



Thanks for reading! Please comment!

[/]

Great job! I'd like to see Klobuchar do well.

What's happening on the GOP side?

[LLR]

Great job! I'd like to see Klobuchar do well.

What's happening on the GOP side?

I'll get to the GOP side later, this is a democratic timeline dammit

[Pyro]

C'mon Tulsi! Let's go!

[LLR]

2024 New Hampshire Democratic Primary

22 delegates will be allocated tonight.

Results

Booker 23%
Klobuchar 20%
Moulton 18%
Harris 14%
Gabbard 11%
Castro 9%
Newsom 5%


At-Large delegates:

Booker 3
Klobuchar 3
Moulton 2
Harris 2
Gabbard 1

CD delegates:

NH-1: Klobuchar 2, Booker 1, Harris 1, Moulton 1
NH-2: Moulton 2, Booker 2, Klobuchar 1, Gabbard 1


CASTRO DROPS OUT

After failing to meet the 10% threshold in both Iowa and New Hampshire, Joaquin Castro has decided to drop out. Seth Moulton and Gavin Newsom both said they'd continue their fights, despite disappointing results so far.


Delegate Count

Amy Klobuchar 22
Kamala Harris 16
Cory Booker 12
Seth Moulton 9
Gavin Newsom 7
Tulsi Gabbard 3



Maps

States by Popular Vote

States by % of Delegates won by Winner

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[LLR]

Nevada and South Carolina 2024 Primaries

Yeah, they're on the same day this year. A total of 103 delegates will be allocated, 38 from Nevada and 65 from South Carolina.

South Carolina

Cory Booker 32%
Kamala Harris 25%
Amy Klobuchar 17%
Tulsi Gabbard 12%
Seth Moulton 8%
Gavin Newsom 6%


At-Large:
Booker 14
Harris 11
Klobuchar 8

CD:
SC-1: Booker 2, Harris 2
SC-2: Klobuchar 2, Booker 1, Harris 1
SC-3: Booker 2, Klobuchar 2
SC-4: Harris 2, Booker 1, Klobuchar 1
SC-5: Booker 2, Harris 2, Klobuchar 1
SC-6: Harris 3, Booker 2, Gabbard 1
SC-7: Klobuchar 2, Booker 2, Harris 1


Nevada
Kamala Harris 25%
Tulsi Gabbard 19%
Cory Booker 17%
Amy Klobuchar 16%
Gavin Newsom 13%
Seth Moulton 10%


At-Large:
Harris 5
Gabbard 4
Booker 4
Klobuchar 3

CDs:
NV-1: Booker 2, Harris 2, Gabbard 1, Klobuchar 1
NV-2: Harris 2, Gabbard 2, Newsom 1
NV-3: Harris 2, Booker 1, Gabbard 1, Klobuchar 1
NV-4: Gabbard 2, Harris 2, Klobuchar 2

Delegate Count:
Kamala Harris 51
Cory Booker 45
Amy Klobuchar 45
Tulsi Gabbard 14
Seth Moulton 9
Gavin Newsom 8



NEWSOM, MOULTON WITHDRAW

Following disappointing losses, both Gavin Newsom of California and Seth Moulton of Massachusetts decided to drop out.


Maps

States by Popular Vote

States by % of Delegates won by Winner

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[Progressive]

Surprised to see Newsom and Harris running in the same primary. Curios who the NY Democrats are backing. I would assume Booker? Either way, well done.

[LLR]

2024 Maine Primary

The candidates' last chance to prove themselves before Super Tuesday comes in rural, white Maine.

Results:

Amy Klobuchar 33%
Cory Booker 27%
Kamala Harris 24%
Tulsi Gabbard 16%

At-Large:
Klobuchar 3
Booker 3
Harris 3
Gabbard 2

CD:
ME-1: Booker 2, Klobuchar 2, Harris 2
ME-2: Klobuchar 2, Harris 2, Booker 1, Gabbard 1

Delegate Count:

Kamala Harris 58
Amy Klobuchar 52
Cory Booker 51
Tulsi Gabbard 17
Seth Moulton 9
Gavin Newsom 8


Maps

States by Popular Vote

States by % of Delegates won by Winner[/b]

Thanks for reading! Please comment !

[LLR]

I really liked this, but it's unfortunately no longer relevant

2016

Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 369 EVs, 48.5%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence 169 EVs, 43%
Gary Johnson/William Weld 0 EVs, 6%
Others 2.5%

Any interest? And I mean it this time!

[Devout Centrist]

I really liked this, but it's unfortunately no longer relevant

2016

Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 369 EVs, 48.5%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence 169 EVs, 43%
Gary Johnson/William Weld 0 EVs, 6%
Others 2.5%

Any interest? And I mean it this time!

You always have my support, baby.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Yes! Let's just imagine for this timeline that Hillary won. It's not like it's any different from imagining the future, anyway

[GlobeSoc]

10/10 want more!