FL-PPP (2018): Nelson beats Scott by 4
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  FL-PPP (2018): Nelson beats Scott by 4
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Author Topic: FL-PPP (2018): Nelson beats Scott by 4  (Read 1011 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: September 07, 2016, 09:51:04 AM »

Bill Nelson (D, inc.): 45%
Rick Scott (R): 41%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_FL_90716.pdf
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #1 on: September 07, 2016, 11:26:49 AM »

Nelson's races always appear to be close in the beginning, then he wins by a million votes.
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Vosem
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« Reply #2 on: September 07, 2016, 11:37:34 AM »

Nelson's races always appear to be close in the beginning, then he wins by a million votes.

To be fair, he's gotten very lucky both with the national environment and with attracting seemingly-strong but actually quite weak opponents.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #3 on: September 07, 2016, 01:53:05 PM »

Nelson's races always appear to be close in the beginning, then he wins by a million votes.

To be fair, he's gotten very lucky both with the national environment and with attracting seemingly-strong but actually quite weak opponents.
Very true. A strong candidate like Tom Rooney or Jeff Atwater would beat him.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #4 on: September 07, 2016, 07:08:22 PM »

Nelson's races always appear to be close in the beginning, then he wins by a million votes.

To be fair, he's gotten very lucky both with the national environment and with attracting seemingly-strong but actually quite weak opponents.
Very true. A strong candidate like Tom Rooney or Jeff Atwater would beat him.
Not to mention his last two elections were Democrat waves: 2006, 2012
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #5 on: September 07, 2016, 07:41:06 PM »

Nelson's races always appear to be close in the beginning, then he wins by a million votes.

To be fair, he's gotten very lucky both with the national environment and with attracting seemingly-strong but actually quite weak opponents.
Very true. A strong candidate like Tom Rooney or Jeff Atwater would beat him.
Not to mention his last two elections were Democrat waves: 2006, 2012
Connie Mack IV is the perfect example of a "seemingly strong but actually weak" opponent. On paper he was the perfect candidate, but in reality he turned out to be deeply flawed and incompetent. His 2006 opponent (in an even bigger wave than 2012), Katherine Harris was also a very controversial figure, while popular with her base she was deeply unpopular with many swing voters and Democrats in the anti-Bush year of 2006 due to her role in the controversial recount. In addition to the two I first mentioned, David Jolly and Carlos Curbelo are also good candidates (if they win reelection).
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #6 on: September 08, 2016, 12:01:02 AM »

Nelson's races always appear to be close in the beginning, then he wins by a million votes.

To be fair, he's gotten very lucky both with the national environment and with attracting seemingly-strong but actually quite weak opponents.
Very true. A strong candidate like Tom Rooney or Jeff Atwater would beat him.
Not to mention his last two elections were Democrat waves: 2006, 2012
Unless Ron DeSantis runs, I can't see anyone beating Nelson.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #7 on: September 08, 2016, 12:27:50 AM »

Nelson's races always appear to be close in the beginning, then he wins by a million votes.

To be fair, he's gotten very lucky both with the national environment and with attracting seemingly-strong but actually quite weak opponents.
Very true. A strong candidate like Tom Rooney or Jeff Atwater would beat him.
Not to mention his last two elections were Democrat waves: 2006, 2012
Unless Ron DeSantis runs, I can't see anyone beating Nelson.
Totally forgot about DeSantis for a bit. He is another strong candidate, and a great fundraiser. But I also heard rumors that he is thinking about running for Attorney General. It seems like Rick Scott is really trying to get the field cleared for him to run in 2018, ugh. When his term expires, I think he should go back to the private sector, where he belongs.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #8 on: September 08, 2016, 09:13:29 AM »

Nelson's races always appear to be close in the beginning, then he wins by a million votes.

To be fair, he's gotten very lucky both with the national environment and with attracting seemingly-strong but actually quite weak opponents.
Very true. A strong candidate like Tom Rooney or Jeff Atwater would beat him.
Not to mention his last two elections were Democrat waves: 2006, 2012

I wouldn't call 2012 a Democrat wave.
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Skye
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« Reply #9 on: September 08, 2016, 02:02:57 PM »

Yeah, Scott's numbers are quite impressive. His approvals are always under water.
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progressive85
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« Reply #10 on: September 08, 2016, 03:18:21 PM »

I'm a bit worried about this seat, but I think Rick Scott is really quite none.  I never understood his appeal.  The Rs should go with -- hmm, maybe Florida Republicans don't have that much of a bench after all?
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #11 on: September 08, 2016, 04:56:32 PM »

I'm a bit worried about this seat, but I think Rick Scott is really quite none.  I never understood his appeal.  The Rs should go with -- hmm, maybe Florida Republicans don't have that much of a bench after all?
Congressmen Tom Rooney and Ron DeSantis are strong candidates. So is CFO Jeff Atwater. David Jolly and Carlos Curbelo are other possibilities, but first they have to win reelection in their tough seats.
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Skye
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« Reply #12 on: September 08, 2016, 05:23:13 PM »

I'm a bit worried about this seat, but I think Rick Scott is really quite none.  I never understood his appeal.  The Rs should go with -- hmm, maybe Florida Republicans don't have that much of a bench after all?
What, millions of dollars in fortune for self-funding aren't enough for you?
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #13 on: September 09, 2016, 12:18:11 PM »

I'm a bit worried about this seat, but I think Rick Scott is really quite none.  I never understood his appeal.  The Rs should go with -- hmm, maybe Florida Republicans don't have that much of a bench after all?
Bill Nelson is probably the only political figure in Florida who transcends politics to remain (relatively) popular among Floridians. He really is our only "old guard" figure left who has clout in Washington and has made it clear that he holds no national ambitions. He always appears vulnerable but either draws weak opponents (Mack '12) or wins in a wave year (Harris '06). The bench of the Florida Republican Party is strong, but Nelson is the only major Democrat in Florida who can hold his own against it. Hence why people like Putnam, Atwater, DeSantis, CLC, etc, are looking at the Governors mansion or the row offices whereas only Rick Scott is seriously interested in the Senate seat.

Personally, I think Atwater and Putnam go for Governor (Putnam wins easily) while DeSantis goes either for AG or for the Senate (more likely the former), CLC to Atwater's position as CFO, while Bondi likely sits out the cycle all together in the hopes of eventually getting into Congress or some other form of elected office.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #14 on: September 09, 2016, 12:24:29 PM »

Bold prediction: Nelson looks unbeatable in 2017 so the only "major" candidate who runs is Carlos Beruff. However, Clinton is so unpopular and the upcoming wave is so large that Beruff surges in August of 2018 and rides the 2018 GOP national landslide to victory.
Beruff won't run against Scott, though. Scott actually praised Beruff repeatedly throughout the campaign and while not endorsing him, he made it clear where his loyalties were. Otherwise, I'd say your prediction is actually very close to what could happen.
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