How would these places vote?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just as a little experiment, I'd like your opinions on how the following places would vote if they were in the U.S. I've changed their names to make it easier. Just base any guesses on the information I give about each place.

Just four to start with...

Wainwright County

Upland textiles area with a growing amount of commuters and retirees. Mostly small towns but with a large-ish suburban area (mostly middle class to upper middle class) in the northeast of the county. Large Evangelical population. Traditionally a modestly affluent area.

Armstrong County

A collection of small and very working class old coal towns with a large and remote rural area that used to be a metal mining centre. Large Evangelical population.

Maudling County

An affluent area made up mostly of oldish middle suburbs. Has a fairly large Jewish population in parts but isn't an especially religious area on the whole.

Spa Township

A very rich town surrounded by rich agricultural areas. Increasingly a base for affluent commuters and has no real industrial base.

[minionofmidas]

Wainwright County

Upland textiles area with a growing amount of commuters and retirees. Mostly small towns but with a large-ish suburban area (mostly middle class to upper middle class) in the northeast of the county. Large Evangelical population. Traditionally a modestly affluent area.

Republican, silly. Ever more so.

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Traditionally very Democrat. Either still very Democrat, or (perhaps less likely) not Democrat in presidential elections anymore, but still very much so in local elections. Oh, and the few elected Republicans might well be Tom Coburn clones.

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Democrat for President, mixed, perhaps even Rep-dominated (Depends on traditions) further below.

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Republican.

[Blue Rectangle]

I have no knowledge of these, other than what you provided, but here's a shot:

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Sounds like New Hampshire, so borderline.

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Sounds like West Virginia, but with more evangelicals, so strong Rep.

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Sounds like Long Island, strong Dem.

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Sounds like Boston, strong Dem.

[angus]

Just as a little experiment, I'd like your opinions on how the following places would vote if they were in the U.S. I've changed their names to make it easier. Just base any guesses on the information I give about each place.

Just four to start with...

Wainwright County

Upland textiles area with a growing amount of commuters and retirees. Mostly small towns but with a large-ish suburban area (mostly middle class to upper middle class) in the northeast of the county. Large Evangelical population. Traditionally a modestly affluent area.

Armstrong County

A collection of small and very working class old coal towns with a large and remote rural area that used to be a metal mining centre. Large Evangelical population.

Maudling County

An affluent area made up mostly of oldish middle suburbs. Has a fairly large Jewish population in parts but isn't an especially religious area on the whole.

Spa Township

A very rich town surrounded by rich agricultural areas. Increasingly a base for affluent commuters and has no real industrial base.

1.  60/40 Bush, I'd guess.  And republican congress.

2.  52/48 Bush, but with a democrat congressman.

3.  53/47 Kerry.  Republican congressman.

4.  hard call on pres, though, since the yuppies don't follow the old trends.  even between Kerry and Bush, I'd guess, with decent 3rd party support.  maybe Badnarik breaks 5% here.  As for congress, there'd be a democrat probably.

[WMS]

Wainwright County

Upland textiles area with a growing amount of commuters and retirees. Mostly small towns but with a large-ish suburban area (mostly middle class to upper middle class) in the northeast of the county. Large Evangelical population. Traditionally a modestly affluent area.

Mix of ancestral Democrats and incoming Republicans, but more competitive on the local level than on statewide/national level, where it votes strongly Republican.

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Locally Democratic, state/nationally exactly the type of area the Dems have lost since the late 1960s although still capable of voting for the right Democratic candidates.

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Ancestrally Republican area, may still be so on local level, but on state/national levels increasingly voting Democratic.

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Definitely Republican on local levels. I'd need more information on religious/cultural stats there to determine if they're strongly Republican or merely mostly Republican.

Your Mileage May Vary.

[minionofmidas]

Spa Township

A very rich town surrounded by rich agricultural areas. Increasingly a base for affluent commuters and has no real industrial base.

Sounds like Boston, strong Dem.

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No...except arguably for the "rich town" bit this sounds very un-Bostonish.
More like...say...Lancaster PA.

[angus]

these things are hard to call, Al.  one of your peeves (and mine) is this blue/red crap.  And greenfield, matthews, et al, are always calling manhattan the "bluest of the blues".  Yet, right now, the governor and the mayor are republicans.  As was the former mayor.  Remember, also, that americans don't vote for parties, and vote splitting is quite common, and we don't split along truly liberal/conservative lines, and social issues are big here unlike in the UK, and, most importantly, we separate our legislative and executive branches, so your question is difficult to translate.  That said, informed americans will answer as if those places are in the US, and separate local, national exec, and national leg offices, and consider not only left/right issues, but also the "social" issues for a complete picture.

spa didn't strike me very bostonian either, by the way.  no place strikes me very bostonian except boston.  weird mix of puritans setting laws, and activist courts forcing their hands.  I think you'd be hard-pressed to find such moralism outside the eastern Bay State.  Remember, this was a place where you couldn't even get a tattoo till, gee... when was it.  Well, musta been around 2000.  I remember how excited all the youngster facial-jewelery crowd was when a court overturned that rule.  The leg was among the last not to pull its anti-sodomy rules from the books, but the first where an unelected court said two men can marry.  (not that I'm against justices being appointed rather than elected, just observing.)  Harvard wouldn't allow jews or catholics to attend for the first 300 years of its existence ("dogs and irishmen stay off grass"), now most of the whites at harvard are either catholic or jew.  There goes the neighborhood!  Strange mix, indeed.  I second the thought:  Spa doesn't sound bostonian.  It merely sounds Spa.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

these things are hard to call, Al.

True; mainly because they're all real places

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...and until NY's relative population decline got rid of it, one of Manhatten's Congressional Districts used to vote for a Republican congressman...

Good rant, btw

[TeePee4Prez]

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Sounds like the suburban South. Republican, but may have conservative Dems at the local level.

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West Virginia, Kentucky. parts of PA(though we're mostly Catholic).  Populist Dem in Congress, split for President because of social issues.

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Montgomery County, PA namely Ambler, Abington, Upper Dublin Twp.- libertarian-leaning liberal.  EMILY's List's cashcow, solidly Democrat with a tinge of "Enterpriser" Republicanism due to the fact some people really love their tax cuts.

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Not sure exactly.  I'm guessing Republican.

[12th Doctor]

Wainwright County

Upland textiles area with a growing amount of commuters and retirees. Mostly small towns but with a large-ish suburban area (mostly middle class to upper middle class) in the northeast of the county. Large Evangelical population. Traditionally a modestly affluent area.

Probably lean Republican, but they would go for a Bill Clinton type.  This acctually sounds quite a bit like central North Carolina.

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Traditionally strongly Democrat and probably still so on a local level, but they have recently handed decent margins to GOP national candidates.

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Safely Dem, but they might vote for some local GOP candidates.

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Sounds like CT.  Safe Dem, though, like the last one, they might vote for some local GOPers.

P.S.  Couldn't you find a more original name than "Spa" when talking about "Bath"? 

[Dave from Michigan]

Just as a little experiment, I'd like your opinions on how the following places would vote if they were in the U.S. I've changed their names to make it easier. Just base any guesses on the information I give about each place.

Just four to start with...

Wainwright County

Upland textiles area with a growing amount of commuters and retirees. Mostly small towns but with a large-ish suburban area (mostly middle class to upper middle class) in the northeast of the county. Large Evangelical population. Traditionally a modestly affluent area.

Armstrong County

A collection of small and very working class old coal towns with a large and remote rural area that used to be a metal mining centre. Large Evangelical population.

Maudling County

An affluent area made up mostly of oldish middle suburbs. Has a fairly large Jewish population in parts but isn't an especially religious area on the whole.

Spa Township

A very rich town surrounded by rich agricultural areas. Increasingly a base for affluent commuters and has no real industrial base.

1  republican
2 republican
3  Democratic
4 republican

[Rob]

Wainwright County

Upland textiles area with a growing amount of commuters and retirees. Mostly small towns but with a large-ish suburban area (mostly middle class to upper middle class) in the northeast of the county. Large Evangelical population. Traditionally a modestly affluent area.

Historically, Wainwright was a swing county with a Republican lean. Since the '70s, the GOP has cemented its control on the county, thanks primarily to religious conservatism but also to the economic conservatism of commuters. In 2004, Wainwright gave George W. Bush 71 percent of the vote.

Armstrong County

A collection of small and very working class old coal towns with a large and remote rural area that used to be a metal mining centre. Large Evangelical population.

Desperately poor, Armstong has been a Democratic stronghold since the New Deal. However, the GOP has lately made sizable inroads due to "wedge" issues such as abortion and gun control. In 2004, Armstrong voted for John Kerry, but with only 55 percent of the vote- a steep decline from even 2000, which also was a bad Democratic year here.

Maudling County

An affluent area made up mostly of oldish middle suburbs. Has a fairly large Jewish population in parts but isn't an especially religious area on the whole.

Maulding has a strong Democratic lean. It hasn't voted for a Republican since 1988, and Kerry won solidly.

Spa Township

A very rich town surrounded by rich agricultural areas. Increasingly a base for affluent commuters and has no real industrial base.

Historically ultra-Republican, voting for Hoover, Landon, and Goldwater, Spa surprised everyone by voting for Bill Clinton in 1996. Bush carried it in both 2000 and 2004, but his margins were underwhelming and the township is clearly moving toward the Democrats.

[Alcon]

Wainwright County

Upland textiles area with a growing amount of commuters and retirees. Mostly small towns but with a large-ish suburban area (mostly middle class to upper middle class) in the northeast of the county. Large Evangelical population. Traditionally a modestly affluent area.

Wainright County would be a historically Republican-leaning county that voted solidly Republican in 2004, probably with around 65% of the vote.

Armstrong County

A collection of small and very working class old coal towns with a large and remote rural area that used to be a metal mining centre. Large Evangelical population.

Historically an extremely Democratic County, Armstrong County would have been a swing county in 2004.

Maudling County

An affluent area made up mostly of oldish middle suburbs. Has a fairly large Jewish population in parts but isn't an especially religious area on the whole.

John Kerry would have received upwards of 55%, maybe 60%.

Spa Township

A very rich town surrounded by rich agricultural areas. Increasingly a base for affluent commuters and has no real industrial base.

Bush received 53% of the vote here in 2000, the closest election since surprising wins for Bill Clinton in 1996 and 1992, thanks to a strongly performing Perot.  (I'm not exactly sure what a rich agricultural area is.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some interesting responses so far; I'll stick some more places up soon

[Smash255]

1.  Republican & trneding more GOP

2.  Slight lean Dem, but trending GOP

3.  Use to be heavily Republican, now Dem & trending more Dem

4.  Lean GOP, slight Dem trend

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Two more...

Worstedopolis

At the heart of a textiles producing region, Worstedopolis has suffered severely from the decline of that industry and is now one of the poorest cities in the nation.
The city has a large minority population in parts (especially in the west) and there's been tension between it and the white majority, although things appear to have cooled down in the past year or so. The city has a large Evangelical population (especially towards the south) and unions are strong.

Cobblers City

A former minor industrial centre, Cobblers is now a high growth area on the edge of exurbia with thousands of new homes going up every year.

[Rob]

Worstedopolis

At the heart of a textiles producing region, Worstedopolis has suffered severely from the decline of that industry and is now one of the poorest cities in the nation.
The city has a large minority population in parts (especially in the west) and there's been tension between it and the white majority, although things appear to have cooled down in the past year or so. The city has a large Evangelical population (especially towards the south) and unions are strong.

Traditionally extremely Democratic, there has been some movement toward the GOP in recent years. However, John Kerry won with a solid 60 percent.

Cobblers City

A former minor industrial centre, Cobblers is now a high growth area on the edge of exurbia with thousands of new homes going up every year.

Formerly a Democratic-leaning area, Cobblers is now a Republican stronghold. Bush crushed Kerry with 75 percent of the vote here.

[WMS]

Worstedopolis

At the heart of a textiles producing region, Worstedopolis has suffered severely from the decline of that industry and is now one of the poorest cities in the nation.
The city has a large minority population in parts (especially in the west) and there's been tension between it and the white majority, although things appear to have cooled down in the past year or so. The city has a large Evangelical population (especially towards the south) and unions are strong.

Democratic, at all levels, although I bet much closer at the national/state levels than at the local level.

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Probably Republican, fairly strongly, although not for everything - local races are probably much closer. This kinda reminds me of the West Side of Albuquerque, which is a swing area.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wainwright County - pretty Republican
Armstrong County - mixed on the federal level, heavily Democrat with more socially conservative democrats locally
Maudling County - Heavily Dem in presidential elections. Less so locally, possibly even Republican
Spa Township - slightly GOP, trending Dem
Worstedopolis - Heavily Dem on the local level, moves GOP but still fairly strong Dem nationally
Cobblers City - heavily Republican and trending so

[tarheel-leftist85]

Wainwright County--Strong Rep.
Armstrong Country--Use to vote Dem., but trending Rep.
Maulding County--Strong Dem.
Spa Township--Medium Republican (perhaps voting for social liberals be they Rep. or Dem.)
Worstedopolis--Strong Dem., but will trend Rep.
Cobblers city--Use to be Dem., but now strong Rep.

[socaldem]

Wainwright County

Upland textiles area with a growing amount of commuters and retirees. Mostly small towns but with a large-ish suburban area (mostly middle class to upper middle class) in the northeast of the county. Large Evangelical population. Traditionally a modestly affluent area.

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I agree with those who suggest this sounds like NH, except for the "strongly evangelical" part... If the middle class/upper middle class suburbanites moving in are evangelicals, then it probably votes strongly Republican on all levels like exurban Georgia...if the newcomers are social moderates and the evangelical population is composed of textile workers, then the area is lean Republican on the federal level like New Hampshire, though still heavily Republican in state/congressional elections...  Since I'm supposing its more like exurban Georgia:

63/37-Bush

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Others have covered this pretty well: its like West Virginia/western PA... its important to note, however, that though West Virginia is now leaning strongly Republican, the coal counties are still voting for Democrats on all levels.  So, I think this area would stil be Democratic on all levels, though with rapidly diminishing presidential numbers....

53/47- Kerry

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As others have noted, this describes Long Island/Montgomery County/parts of Los Angeles' San Fernando Valley.  Though historically Republican, it has recently become strongly Democratic in both Presidential and Congressional elections.  The areas may tend Republican, however, in statewide, and, especially, municipal/county races...

56/44-Kerry

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Okay, I don't know how anyone gets Boston or Connecticut from this...those areas are not rich agricultural regions!  I'm thinking that parts of exurban Kansas might qualify.  But perhaps a county near Fresno that has few Hispanics would fit this description best... Hence, strongly Republican.  Moreover, it seems to me that (with the exception of New Englanders who aren't in a rich agricultural region and where there is some industrial base) suburbanites commuting from distant affluent suburbs with a rural, "small town" feel are going to tend to be highly Republican... rich suburban Democrats gravitate towards older suburbs...

65/35-Bush

[socaldem]

Worstedopolis

At the heart of a textiles producing region, Worstedopolis has suffered severely from the decline of that industry and is now one of the poorest cities in the nation.
The city has a large minority population in parts (especially in the west) and there's been tension between it and the white majority, although things appear to have cooled down in the past year or so. The city has a large Evangelical population (especially towards the south) and unions are strong.

If it weren't for the strong unions, I'd place this town in the South in say North Carolina and would suggest that it votes Republican with voting splitting along racial lines... however, if there are strong unions, perhaps its in Ohio... in that case, I would suggest that the region may be strongly Democratic on the national level, with Democratic congressmen in racially gerrymandered districts...and a stronger than normal Democratic votge in the last election because of the economic collapse, but with white voters favoring Republicans on the local/state level...

58-42 Kerry

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From somewhat moderately republcian with perhaps a populist democratic congressman to more and more republican as exurbia grows...

60-40 Bush

[minionofmidas]

Worstedopolis sorta depends on its traditions...might be like Cincy or Memphis, very polarized along racial lines at all levels. Or might be like Philly, ultra heavily Dem on the federal level, much much less so (but still a Dem lead) on the local level.
Cobblers is heavily Rep. The older core might still be voting Democrat.

[Platypus]

Wainwright-GOP
Armstrong-Presidential GOP, otherwise D.
Maudling-Democrat; if it's in the northeast, Repubclican for some state-level stuff.
Spa-formerly strong GOP, now moderate D.

[Platypus]

Worsted-Buffalo.

Cobblers-GOP, but D at a local level?