If you're a Clinton supporter, how would you describe your mood about the polls?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I'd like to compare the Atlas hacks with those who is following Nate Silver

[Maxwell]

Nervous. But since bumps fade and now its a 3-4 point race, I'm hopeful that Clinton can hold on and finish strong as she has in previous races.

[JA]

Relaxed, but not complacent. Defeating Trump is essential and no one should pretend like we're safe from the possibility of a Trump presidency until Clinton clears 270.

[Xing]

A bit nervous, but not overly worried. She's still ahead, and while the tipping point state, PA, is a bit closer than it was a month ago, her lead is still outside of the margin of error.

[Modernity has failed us]

I'm 100% sure she will win. Still, I'm not excited about it.

[Fusionmunster]

As i've said, Hillary had a bad week. I expect her to recover this week into next but you never know.

[Pandaguineapig]

Nervous. But since bumps fade and now its a 3-4 point race, I'm hopeful that Clinton can hold on and finish strong as she has in previous races.

I don't think you can use her other races as a good estimate for how this race closes out, in 2000 Lazio imploded and she was always personally popular and 2006 wasn't really contested

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Wondering about the sanity of the American people.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Nervous. But since bumps fade and now its a 3-4 point race, I'm hopeful that Clinton can hold on and finish strong as she has in previous races.

I don't think you can use her other races as a good estimate for how this race closes out, in 2000 Lazio imploded and she was always personally popular and 2006 wasn't really contested

Are you seriously comparing New York senate races to a presidential one?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Honestly, Hillary has just been really lucky throughout her career of running for public office. I mean look at it:

2000: Hillary was supposed to face Rudy Giuliani, who would have been a very strong opponent. However, he dropped out of the race for health reasons, leaving her with the far weaker Rick Lazio, who put his foot in his mouth in a debate. Even then, she significantly underperformed Gore.

2006: YUGE Democratic Wave. Republicans were preoccupied with just trying to just hold on to the chamber, and Hillary was allowed to run basically unopposed.

2008 Primary: Hillary's only serious challenge. She loses.

2016 Primary: Prominent democrats endorse Hillary very early on, donating large chunks of money to her campaign to scare away a serious challenger. Her most notable challenger is a self-declared independent socialist from Vermont who nobody had ever heard of before. The DNC limited debate, took away Bernie's Voter Database until he sued them over it, gave her extra help behind the scenes, and got her several hundred superdelegate endorsements before a single vote was cast. But when the actual elections happened, Hillary hobbled through the first three contests. She then built up an insurmountable lead through victories in the South and Northeast on the backs of the black vote, but Bernie continued to maintain a significant presence and surprise people - the michigan miracle, nearly winning Obama-loving Illinois, winning every contest except Arizona that was held between March 16th and April 18th (including Democrats Abroad), and winning every caucus held in March or later. In the end, Hillary didn't clinch the nomination until June, and Sanders got several notable concessions in terms of the platform and redesigning the primary rules for 2020.

2016 General: Hillary's running against the worst out of the entire 17 candidate republican field and she's just barely ahead. Yeah, it's a polarized country. But she could still get 53,54,55 percent of the vote. Instead she just can't put Trump away, and is bleeding significant numbers of votes to Gary Johnson and Jill Stein.

Hillary is just a lucky candidate. She's not a good candidate. Against Kasich, Rubio, Christie, Pataki, Paul, Walker, Jebra, or Graham, she'd be toast.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Relaxed. Would be sh*ting myself if it was Clinton/Kaine vs Rubio/Kasich.

[NeverAgain]

Panicked, but in a good way. I just hope polls like these keep popping up so that we can get as many as possible to GOTV and volunteer.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Relaxed but not complacent.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

They should be at least nervous. I think Trump is going to vastly outperform the polls; I think we'll see that there are a lot of Trump voters out there who weren't willing to admit to supporting Trump to pollsters but will do so in the secrecy of the voting booth.

[Maxwell]

They should be at least nervous. I think Trump is going to vastly outperform the polls; I think we'll see that there are a lot of Trump voters out there who weren't willing to admit to supporting Trump to pollsters but will do so in the secrecy of the voting booth.

thus far there has been no evidence of that. Only evidence of the opposite: people who are saying they'll vote for Trump, but as soon as they get in that voting booth, reconsider that choice. And admittedly, even evidence of that is scant.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

They should be at least nervous. I think Trump is going to vastly outperform the polls; I think we'll see that there are a lot of Trump voters out there who weren't willing to admit to supporting Trump to pollsters but will do so in the secrecy of the voting booth.

thus far there has been no evidence of that. Only evidence of the opposite: people who are saying they'll vote for Trump, but as soon as they get in that voting booth, reconsider that choice. And admittedly, even evidence of that is scant.

Well there can't be any definitive evidence for it (or against it for that matter) until the results of the election are in. But we do have some circumstantial evidence that supports my concern, and that is that Trump does better I online polls than in live polls.

[Maxwell]

They should be at least nervous. I think Trump is going to vastly outperform the polls; I think we'll see that there are a lot of Trump voters out there who weren't willing to admit to supporting Trump to pollsters but will do so in the secrecy of the voting booth.

thus far there has been no evidence of that. Only evidence of the opposite: people who are saying they'll vote for Trump, but as soon as they get in that voting booth, reconsider that choice. And admittedly, even evidence of that is scant.

Well there can't be any definitive evidence for it (or against it for that matter) until the results of the election are in. But we do have some circumstantial evidence that supports my concern, and that is that Trump does better I online polls than in live polls.

do you mean legit online polls or online polls where it's like "vote 15 times for Trump"?

Because the NBC Survey Monkey poll does show Clinton up 6 as opposed to CNN (which I believe is live) showing Trump up by 2.

[Smash255]

Not excited, but not worried or nervous either, and certainly not after Trump's debacle tonight.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

They should be at least nervous. I think Trump is going to vastly outperform the polls; I think we'll see that there are a lot of Trump voters out there who weren't willing to admit to supporting Trump to pollsters but will do so in the secrecy of the voting booth.

thus far there has been no evidence of that. Only evidence of the opposite: people who are saying they'll vote for Trump, but as soon as they get in that voting booth, reconsider that choice. And admittedly, even evidence of that is scant.

Well there can't be any definitive evidence for it (or against it for that matter) until the results of the election are in. But we do have some circumstantial evidence that supports my concern, and that is that Trump does better I online polls than in live polls.

538 did a piece on this... Trump actually underperformed his polls by about a point during the primaries. Now, 1 point isn't a significant difference, and it may well have been noise, but it definitely doesn't point to a "Shy Trump effect".

[Ronnie]

I have little reason to be anything other than pleased.  Trump can't win if he continues to have such massive deficits among minorities and college educated white women, and he has done nothing to build bridges with those demographics.  If anything, he's burned them down.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

They should be at least nervous. I think Trump is going to vastly outperform the polls; I think we'll see that there are a lot of Trump voters out there who weren't willing to admit to supporting Trump to pollsters but will do so in the secrecy of the voting booth.

thus far there has been no evidence of that. Only evidence of the opposite: people who are saying they'll vote for Trump, but as soon as they get in that voting booth, reconsider that choice. And admittedly, even evidence of that is scant.

Well there can't be any definitive evidence for it (or against it for that matter) until the results of the election are in. But we do have some circumstantial evidence that supports my concern, and that is that Trump does better I online polls than in live polls.

do you mean legit online polls or online polls where it's like "vote 15 times for Trump"?

Because the NBC Survey Monkey poll does show Clinton up 6 as opposed to CNN (which I believe is live) showing Trump up by 2.

I mean legit online polls.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

They should be at least nervous. I think Trump is going to vastly outperform the polls; I think we'll see that there are a lot of Trump voters out there who weren't willing to admit to supporting Trump to pollsters but will do so in the secrecy of the voting booth.

thus far there has been no evidence of that. Only evidence of the opposite: people who are saying they'll vote for Trump, but as soon as they get in that voting booth, reconsider that choice. And admittedly, even evidence of that is scant.

People who were planning to/open to voting for Trump but made a different decision at the booth definitely do exist - even in primaries he won convincingly, I don't remember Trump ever winning among late deciders according to exit polls, and I almost always watched the network coverage.

[Rand]

Unphased.  Hillary is still going to win--nothing is going to change that.  She may win by a smaller margin, though.  I am more amused by Trump supporters gloating about the very same polls that a month ago were dismissed as phony or caused by the "shy Trump voter" exclusion.

[KingSweden]

I'm honestly more concerned about the GOP holding the Senate

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

They should be at least nervous. I think Trump is going to vastly outperform the polls; I think we'll see that there are a lot of Trump voters out there who weren't willing to admit to supporting Trump to pollsters but will do so in the secrecy of the voting booth.

thus far there has been no evidence of that. Only evidence of the opposite: people who are saying they'll vote for Trump, but as soon as they get in that voting booth, reconsider that choice. And admittedly, even evidence of that is scant.

People who were planning to/open to voting for Trump but made a different decision at the booth definitely do exist - even in primaries he won convincingly, I don't remember Trump ever winning among late deciders according to exit polls, and I almost always watched the network coverage.

That's a very good point.  There was a well-documented Shy Anti-Trump effect in the primaries until NY, so we actually have more evidence in favor of that than we do in favor of a Shy Trump effect.  In light of this, I'm surprised the Shy Trump idea's gotten so much traction in the first place.  When in doubt, I would assume the polls are accurate in aggregate.

Um, what examples do we have of Trump regularly over-performing polling pre-NY?