Will Johnson and Stein's percents in November be lower or higher than the polls?
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  Will Johnson and Stein's percents in November be lower or higher than the polls?
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Question: Will Johnson and Stein's support go up or down by election day?
#1
Johnson: Higher
 
#2
Johnson: About the Same
 
#3
Johnson: Lower
 
#4
Stein: Higher
 
#5
Stein: About the Same
 
#6
Stein: Lower
 
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Author Topic: Will Johnson and Stein's percents in November be lower or higher than the polls?  (Read 1373 times)
Sorenroy
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« on: September 08, 2016, 01:50:03 PM »

Currently RCP has Johnson at 9% and Stein at 3.3% on their national four way average. Do you think these numbers will hold, increase, or decrease by election day?

Personally, I think they will go down as people start taking the closeness of the race seriously. I don't want to imagine what would happen in third parties got a combined 10-15 percent in a close race. Their would be riots on the streets.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #1 on: September 08, 2016, 01:51:39 PM »

Johnson will probably drop down to about 4-5, and Stein down to about 1-2.
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Spark
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« Reply #2 on: September 08, 2016, 01:52:02 PM »

I think they will decrease.

Johnson 4%
Stein 2%
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angus
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« Reply #3 on: September 08, 2016, 02:16:10 PM »

Now that he knows what a leppo is, Johnson is going to kick ass and take names.  Higher.

Morton County, North Dakota issued an arrest warrant for Jill Stein today for vandalism, and I think that won't play well for her.  I know Green Party activists like to get arrested, but usually it's for real hero stuff such as chaining themselves to trees or dangerously boarding oil tankers from inflatable rafts in the Bay of Alaska.  She was just spraypainting a bulldozer.  It looks corny.  Lower.  
 
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Enduro
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« Reply #4 on: September 08, 2016, 02:52:03 PM »

For Johnson, I think it depends on how the rest of the campaign goes. I'm leaning towards higher.

Stein, I'd be surprised if she got half of her current numbers.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #5 on: September 08, 2016, 02:53:19 PM »

Both will be lower, Johnson likely more so but then again he's polling a lot higher than Stein and has more to lose.
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kyc0705
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« Reply #6 on: September 08, 2016, 03:40:10 PM »

Johnson will likely get anywhere from 5-7% of the vote, Stein will end up with maybe 2% or slightly less.
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OwlRhetoric
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« Reply #7 on: September 08, 2016, 03:53:53 PM »

I'm predicting lower with neither getting in the debates or having major national exposure. Some of their base will hold their nose for Hillary or Trump in the end, as happens with most third parties when election day actually comes. Others may not show up at all for a protest vote.

The third party vote will be abnormally high this year compared to the last few cycles, though. Just a question of how high.
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Steak Mountain Steak Hill Snake Snake
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« Reply #8 on: September 08, 2016, 03:57:00 PM »

Johnson will get about 5.99% and Stein will get about 1.38%, so lower for the two major third party folks (I'll add that Trump will get 41.84% and Clinton will get about 50.57%).
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Wells
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« Reply #9 on: September 08, 2016, 03:58:15 PM »

Since they probably won't make it into the debates, lower.
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #10 on: September 08, 2016, 04:10:03 PM »

Johnson: unclear, though I'd lean toward the low side since he's not handling the increased media coverage well so far

Stein: lower
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Vosem
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« Reply #11 on: September 08, 2016, 04:27:21 PM »

Stein will definitely be lower, though I do think there's maybe 50/50 odds on her crossing Nader's 2.78%. As for Johnson, if he makes it into the debates (unlikely but possible) it'll be higher, and if he doesn't make it into the debates it'll be lower, though I'm convinced he'll remain above 5%.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #12 on: September 08, 2016, 04:33:49 PM »

Both will be significantly lower because very few people are supporting them because they are them. People supported Ross Perot because he was Ross Perot, and that's why his numbers held. Right now most people who are supporting Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are doing so because meh I liked Bernie Sanders or someone else and I don't like Clinton or Trump. If they aren't supporting Johnson or Stein for strong reasons their numbers will disappear.

I suspect Johnson gets around 2.5-3% and Stein gets around 1%.
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Lachi
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« Reply #13 on: September 08, 2016, 05:03:43 PM »

I think that Johnson will be a bit lower, but I wouldn't be surprised if he goes above 10%. It doesn't really matter with Johnson as he'll almost certainly get a record amount of votes for the Libertarian party.

As for stein, she'll be lower, probably 3% at best.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #14 on: September 08, 2016, 06:40:18 PM »

Of course, both will be lower.
The closer the election is come election day, the more people who thought they would vote third-party, will choose to actually vote for one of the two major candidates instead.
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Intergalactic
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« Reply #15 on: September 08, 2016, 11:20:37 PM »

They'll both get less than their percentages in the polls, but still end up doing a lot better in 2016 than they did in 2012.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #16 on: September 08, 2016, 11:20:52 PM »

I think they will decrease.

Johnson 4%
Stein 2%
That sounds about right.
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DoctorWinstonOBoogie
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« Reply #17 on: September 08, 2016, 11:27:18 PM »

After the debates people will finally realize that the only people with a chance to become President are Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

Johnson 6%
Stein 2%
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ursulahx
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« Reply #18 on: September 09, 2016, 08:31:28 AM »

Stein: lower, that's a given.

Johnson: I've taken a gamble and gone for "about the same". I think he's done very well at getting traction, and he remains a popular choice for the Plague On Both Your Houses crowd (which is much bigger this year than usual). But his vote will be very unevenly spread, nationwide (eg much higher in NM, CO and UT than elsewhere).
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #19 on: September 09, 2016, 10:15:51 AM »

And what is polling?
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Mercenary
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« Reply #20 on: September 09, 2016, 10:53:15 AM »

Stein is a nut and Johnson is a poor campaigner. Lower.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #21 on: September 09, 2016, 10:57:02 AM »

Both will be lower. And as the last 24 hours have shown, more media coverage won't necessarily help.
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Badger
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« Reply #22 on: September 09, 2016, 12:27:29 PM »

both much lower, obviously.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #23 on: September 09, 2016, 12:42:46 PM »

Johnson will drop to about 6-7%
Stein will drop to about 1%
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