Politico article: GOP strategists think Trump is toast in CO, VA, NH

[dspNY]

Some highlights:

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This finding is in line with Clinton's lack of ad spending in VA and CO, and Priorities USA saving their most powerful anti-Trump ads for only 5 states (NV, IA, FL, OH, NC).

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Hat tip to TNVolunteer on this one.

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Apparently Trump's I heart the Rust Belt pablum isn't well-received in MI...

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Another GOP strategist in Colorado thinks that it is not a swing state on the presidential level.

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If the private polling actually matched what we are seeing from Marquette, Trump would be spending on ads there. Instead everyone involved in both parties and campaigns are finding a solid lead for Clinton, which is the reason why neither campaign has gone up on the air in WI.

Essentially, Trump's path to 270 is like a high wire act

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/donald-trump-swing-state-227869

[Xing]

This has been true for a while now. Trump has to win Pennsylvania, and polls just aren't showing that to be happening. CO, VA, WI, MI, and NH (and NV, of course) are gone for Trump.

[LLR]

Wait, Trump is toast in NH? B-b-b-but I thought his unique appeal in this elastic state would make it a Tossup or even lean R!!1! #NHWomen4Trump

B-b-b-b-but I thought Flawless Beautiful Marco would be overperforming Trump by double digits and that this race was Safe R!

Clearly I'M the only one who always uses strawmen

Classic TNVol, contradicting himself all the time

[angus]

GOP strategists think Trump is toast in CO, VA, NH

and since all available evidence suggests that GOP strategists are a group of brilliant and effective people, it must be true.

[Stockdale for Veep]

Even though it is the gold standard. That Marquette poll is the equivalent of when Marquette changed its nickname to "Gold" for like 5 days.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Classic TNVol, contradicting himself all the time

I mean, many people here DID think NH would be a Tossup this year. Also, let's dispel with this fiction that Kasich or Rubio would have won NH this year, lol.

Kasich would have won NH as he would have beaten Hillary in the popular vote by 8-10 points

[Classic Conservative]

Kasich would have won NH as he would have beaten Hillary in the popular vote by 8-10 points

I can't think of a single Obama/Kasich or Shaheen/Kasich voter in NH. Keep chasing that fool's gold, though.

I know some, a lot actually

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

The reality is Co, Va and NH are likely solid democrat. This makes it next to impossible for mr.blowhard to win.

[Devils30]

The media doesn't seem to understand this but Trump is cooked without one of Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.

[Dr. Arch]

The media doesn't seem to understand this but Trump is cooked without one of Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.

And he's not getting either.

[Adam Griffin]

So they're basically admitting defeat; if those states aren't falling, then neither are any of the states that are more naturally Democratic. That's 272 EVs. I'd argue that it's really 278 since NV is all but safe as well, but then I wouldn't be able to refer to the 272 freiwal.

[ProudModerate2]

I agree.
Also MN, WI and MI are more than likely out of reach for trump.
And there is a small chance, but more than likely not, that the orange-haired clown can win PA.
With all these states (CO, VA, NH, MN, WI, MI and PA) in Hillary's column, the election is over .... Hillary wins.
Even if trump can win FL, OH, NC, IA, NV, NE02 and ME02 it's still not enough ... he has lost.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Classic TNVol, contradicting himself all the time

I mean, many people here DID think NH would be a Tossup this year. Also, let's dispel with this fiction that Kasich or Rubio would have won NH this year, lol.

Kasich would have won NH as he would have beaten Hillary in the popular vote by 8-10 points

If Obama can't beat Trump by that margin then I don't see why Kasich would beat Clinton.
Enough with the deification of failed candidates.

[Nyvin]

The election is pretty much over then, where is it realistic that Trump can break this?

[MT Treasurer]

^I think WI is his "best" chance, followed by PA. Quite difficult, but not totally impossible.

[Heisenberg]

RIP Virginia. Amazing how much the state has changed compared to just 12 years ago.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

This has been true for a while now. Trump has to win Pennsylvania, and polls just aren't showing that to be happening. CO, VA, WI, MI, and NH (and NV, of course) are gone for Trump.

stop

[ProudModerate2]

The election is pretty much over then, where is it realistic that Trump can break this?

I agree.
Also MN, WI and MI are more than likely out of reach for trump.
And there is a small chance, but more than likely not, that the orange-haired clown can win PA.
With all these states (CO, VA, NH, MN, WI, MI and PA) in Hillary's column, the election is over .... Hillary wins.
Even if trump can win FL, OH, NC, IA, NV, NE02 and ME02 it's still not enough ... he has lost.

Yep.
That's the exact map I have, that matches my previous post/comment (I re-quoted it above).
I don't see him getting past this.
And remember, getting trump to just 266 (as the map above displays) means that he must win all the toss-up/close states (FL, OH, NC, IA, NV, NE02 and ME02). So if he fails with any of these, then he is just in the hole that much more. And if Hillary can take just one electoral-rich toss-up state like FL or OH (and holds PA of course), then forget it ..... trump is done ..... and the orange-haired clown goes back to the circus for a job.

[Xing]

This has been true for a while now. Trump has to win Pennsylvania, and polls just aren't showing that to be happening. CO, VA, WI, MI, and NH (and NV, of course) are gone for Trump.

stop

If people stop claiming that NV is a toss-up, I'll happily never bring it up again, unless it's the specific topic of discussion.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

The election is pretty much over then, where is it realistic that Trump can break this?

I agree.
Also MN, WI and MI are more than likely out of reach for trump.
And there is a small chance, but more than likely not, that the orange-haired clown can win PA.
With all these states (CO, VA, NH, MN, WI, MI and PA) in Hillary's column, the election is over .... Hillary wins.
Even if trump can win FL, OH, NC, IA, NV, NE02 and ME02 it's still not enough ... he has lost.

Yep.
That's the exact map I have, that matches my previous post/comment (I re-quoted it above).
I don't see him getting past this.
And remember, getting trump to just 266 (as the map above displays) means that he must win all the toss-up/close states (FL, OH, NC, IA, NV, NE02 and ME02). So if he fails with any of these, then he is just in the hole that much more. And if Hillary can take just one electoral-rich toss-up state like FL or OH (and holds PA of course), then forget it ..... trump is done ..... and the orange-haired clown goes back to the circus for a job.

You're right, but I still think it's important for someone as divisive as Hillary to win with something that at least resembles a clear mandate.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

This has been true for a while now. Trump has to win Pennsylvania, and polls just aren't showing that to be happening. CO, VA, WI, MI, and NH (and NV, of course) are gone for Trump.

stop

If people stop claiming that NV is a toss-up, I'll happily never bring it up again, unless it's the specific topic of discussion.

We will stop calling it a tossup when everyone accept that it is, at most, Tilt D.

[Nyvin]

The election is pretty much over then, where is it realistic that Trump can break this?

I agree.
Also MN, WI and MI are more than likely out of reach for trump.
And there is a small chance, but more than likely not, that the orange-haired clown can win PA.
With all these states (CO, VA, NH, MN, WI, MI and PA) in Hillary's column, the election is over .... Hillary wins.
Even if trump can win FL, OH, NC, IA, NV, NE02 and ME02 it's still not enough ... he has lost.

Yep.
That's the exact map I have, that matches my previous post/comment (I re-quoted it above).
I don't see him getting past this.
And remember, getting trump to just 266 (as the map above displays) means that he must win all the toss-up/close states (FL, OH, NC, IA, NV, NE02 and ME02). So if he fails with any of these, then he is just in the hole that much more. And if Hillary can take just one electoral-rich toss-up state like FL or OH (and holds PA of course), then forget it ..... trump is done ..... and the orange-haired clown goes back to the circus for a job.

You're right, but I still think it's important for someone as divisive as Hillary to win with something that at least resembles a clear mandate.

Exactly...it's like Republicans see the map above and think that's where Trump "starts" and he just needs to win 1 state.    

It's not where he starts at all, he starts at defending traditionally GOP states like NC, AZ, MO and GA, and then moves on to somehow winning the traditional (real) swing states like FL, OH, and IA (where Clinton is currently leading, same with NC).

THEN after by some miracle having a clear winning streak through ALL those states......he has to go through yet another barrier and win a state Hillary is seeing sometimes double digit leads in.

This is with a candidate with virtually no real campaign operation in a lot of the key states, has no real working knowledge of current events, and has turned multiple groups of people downright hostile toward him.

It's like Trump needs to climb Mt Everest on stilts with no safety harness...while having a pack of wolves chase after him

[Xing]

This has been true for a while now. Trump has to win Pennsylvania, and polls just aren't showing that to be happening. CO, VA, WI, MI, and NH (and NV, of course) are gone for Trump.

stop

If people stop claiming that NV is a toss-up, I'll happily never bring it up again, unless it's the specific topic of discussion.

We will stop calling it a tossup when everyone accept that it is, at most, Tilt D.

How is it only Tilt D? Because the polls show a close race? Polls have almost always had a Republican bias in Nevada, due to underestimating Latino turnout, particularly native Spanish speakers. Considering Trump's numbers among Latinos, that could mean an even larger bias this year.

[ProudModerate2]

The election is pretty much over then, where is it realistic that Trump can break this?

I agree.
Also MN, WI and MI are more than likely out of reach for trump.
And there is a small chance, but more than likely not, that the orange-haired clown can win PA.
With all these states (CO, VA, NH, MN, WI, MI and PA) in Hillary's column, the election is over .... Hillary wins.
Even if trump can win FL, OH, NC, IA, NV, NE02 and ME02 it's still not enough ... he has lost.

Yep.
That's the exact map I have, that matches my previous post/comment (I re-quoted it above).
I don't see him getting past this.
And remember, getting trump to just 266 (as the map above displays) means that he must win all the toss-up/close states (FL, OH, NC, IA, NV, NE02 and ME02). So if he fails with any of these, then he is just in the hole that much more. And if Hillary can take just one electoral-rich toss-up state like FL or OH (and holds PA of course), then forget it ..... trump is done ..... and the orange-haired clown goes back to the circus for a job.

You're right, but I still think it's important for someone as divisive as Hillary to win with something that at least resembles a clear mandate.

I agree. It would be nice to see Hillary win by a large/larger margin, to have a mandate with policy, judge appointments, etc.
But to be honest, I see trump as so dangerous to our nation, that I would be happy, very happy, if Clinton just won by a thread.

[ProudModerate2]

The election is pretty much over then, where is it realistic that Trump can break this?

I agree.
Also MN, WI and MI are more than likely out of reach for trump.
And there is a small chance, but more than likely not, that the orange-haired clown can win PA.
With all these states (CO, VA, NH, MN, WI, MI and PA) in Hillary's column, the election is over .... Hillary wins.
Even if trump can win FL, OH, NC, IA, NV, NE02 and ME02 it's still not enough ... he has lost.

Yep.
That's the exact map I have, that matches my previous post/comment (I re-quoted it above).
I don't see him getting past this.
And remember, getting trump to just 266 (as the map above displays) means that he must win all the toss-up/close states (FL, OH, NC, IA, NV, NE02 and ME02). So if he fails with any of these, then he is just in the hole that much more. And if Hillary can take just one electoral-rich toss-up state like FL or OH (and holds PA of course), then forget it ..... trump is done ..... and the orange-haired clown goes back to the circus for a job.

You're right, but I still think it's important for someone as divisive as Hillary to win with something that at least resembles a clear mandate.

Exactly...it's like Republicans see the map above and think that's where Trump "starts" and he just needs to win 1 state.    
It's not where he starts at all, he starts at defending traditionally GOP states like NC, AZ, MO and GA, and then moves on to somehow winning the traditional (real) swing states like FL, OH, and IA (where Clinton is currently leading, same with NC).
THEN after by some miracle having a clear winning streak through ALL those states......he has to go through yet another barrier and win a state Hillary is seeing sometimes double digit leads in.
This is with a candidate with virtually no real campaign operation in a lot of the key states, has no real working knowledge of current events, and has turned multiple groups of people downright hostile toward him.
It's like Trump needs to climb Mt Everest on stilts with no safety harness...while having a pack of wolves chase after him

Correct.
As you say, trump supporters think they are easily at (or can get to) the level of 266 EV's (as per map). But the trump campaign has many layers, much work, and miracles just to get to this stage.
Then, they still need to do even more.
This is what makes me feel somewhat confident and non-stressful about having an orange-haired monster as our next president.