Trump path to victory
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Author Topic: Trump path to victory  (Read 587 times)
Senator-elect Spark
Spark498
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« on: September 08, 2016, 06:45:39 PM »
Which states does he have to win?
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Nyvin
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« Reply #1 on: September 08, 2016, 06:46:39 PM »
FL/OH/PA/NC
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2 on: September 08, 2016, 06:48:00 PM »
NC+FL+OH+IA+WI+ME-02
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Hermit For Peace
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« Reply #3 on: September 08, 2016, 06:50:16 PM »
The states of mental balance and mental clarity.
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: September 08, 2016, 06:50:35 PM »
PA, which isn't looking likely. (Not to mention OH, NC, FL, AZ, and GA)
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100% pro-life no matter what
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« Reply #5 on: September 08, 2016, 07:02:12 PM »
Romney+FL+OH+

EITHER

PA

-or-

IA+WI+ME-02
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #6 on: September 08, 2016, 07:23:39 PM »
The NY Times Upshot election model at http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html has a nice interactive tool (scroll to the bottom of the page) that shows the paths to victory using all possible outcomes of the 10 closest states.
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SirMuxALot
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« Reply #7 on: September 08, 2016, 07:38:28 PM »
PA is obvious, so leaving that out, there's some longshot possiblities.

FL+OH+NH+NV+AZ-ME2 (270) is the most plausible to me.

What I don't see is any way for Trump to get there without FL.

Even getting:
OH+MI+WI+NV+AZ+NH+ME2 is a 267-271 loss.

But this might be the best chance we'll have in our lifetimes of a 269-269 EC tie:
Trump: FL+NV+AZ+IA+OH+NC+NH
Clinton: WI+MI+ME2+PA+VA+CO
...and you've got your 269-269.  Certainly plausible.

Bottom line is Trump needs to focus on moving the national needle a ways to win this.  He's at a disadvantage trying to win any kind of checkerboard squeaker.
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Mallow
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« Reply #8 on: September 08, 2016, 07:43:48 PM »

This. The obvious answer is the right answer.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #9 on: September 08, 2016, 08:36:59 PM »

I hope you don't consider "Romney" to be a guaranteed thing.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #10 on: September 09, 2016, 04:52:29 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on September 08, 2016, 07:23:39 PM
The NY Times Upshot election model at http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html has a nice interactive tool (scroll to the bottom of the page) that shows the paths to victory using all possible outcomes of the 10 closest states.
Yep! And one can use one's mug feeling to tweak it a bit! Kudos!
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #11 on: September 09, 2016, 07:39:23 AM »
Even 538 has a similar thing.
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Person Man
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« Reply #12 on: September 09, 2016, 08:52:51 AM »
« Edited: September 09, 2016, 08:55:19 AM by Spicy Purrito »
I am expecting-




At this point, this is probably as close as he can get realistically-



This what the Donald can pull off if everything goes his way-



And if Hillary gets the deepthroat and/or loses in the debate...or the stock market crashes-

Basically HMTD's ceiling if he ran a normal campaign on the same platform of protectionism on trade, immigration, and civil rights.  

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