Clinton path to victory

[Senator-elect Spark]

Which states does she have to win?

[AGA]

She could hold onto all the Obama 2012 states while losing Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Iowa, and ME-02.

[Xing]

Basically, if she wins every state where she has a statistically significant lead in the polls (Obama states minus FL, IA, NV, and OH), she wins. And she'll win NV anyway, so basically the 278/279 EVs that are pretty safe for her would be enough.

[Hermit For Peace]

Actually she needs to smile more. If she does that then the election is in the bag.



(Sorry, I couldn't resist trolling.)

[Kingpoleon]

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan. If she wins all three, it's over.

So you don't see Trump winning FL plus CO and NV if he loses those three?

[AGA]

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan. If she wins all three, it's over.

So you don't see Trump winning FL plus CO and NV if he loses those three?

Trump has a decent chance of winning Florida and Nevada but not Colorado. He is a terrible fit for the state since it is so educated, and he is down in the polls there by a large margin.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The NY Times Upshot election model at http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html has a nice interactive tool (scroll to the bottom of the page) that shows the paths to victory using all possible outcomes of the 10 closest states.

[SirMuxALot]

I think this could be shaping up to be a year where trying to hold up a wall in a handful of states may not work.  In a normal year, all the Clinton campaign would have to do is camp out in PA and defend that to the teeth and you've bagged a win.

I think there's too much possibility of a few states getting quite a bit out of line with their normal PVI this year.

I wonder if the campaigns will take the lesson from 2012 to be that Romney blundered by hitting Wisconsin so hard in the final weeks, and so they focus on the usual states: OH-FL-PA.  I wonder if that won't be the wrong approach to 2016.  I could see places like MI, WI, SC, GA getting out of line (vs their PVI expectations) with the national result.