MN ballot access still an issue for Trump; Update: case dismissed
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Author Topic: MN ballot access still an issue for Trump; Update: case dismissed  (Read 1480 times)
Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« on: September 09, 2016, 07:29:20 AM »
« edited: September 12, 2016, 08:56:42 PM by Dwarven Dragon »

The state Democratic Party is actually taking the unusual process by which alternate republican electors were selected to court:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-minnesota-ballot_us_57d2301de4b00642712ce14f?section=
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skoods
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« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2016, 07:40:56 AM »

It's interesting to prove just how disorganized the campaign is/was. But, in the end the point is moot. He wasn't going to be winning Minnesota even if his name was Kirby Puckett.
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angus
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« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2016, 08:04:10 AM »


that was my first thought as well. 

If this happens in Ohio it's big news.  Not so much in Minnesota.
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« Reply #3 on: September 09, 2016, 10:59:53 AM »

Clinton cmapaign needs to get involved immediately and stop the MN Dems and this foolishness.  This can only serve to damage the Clinton campaign and further advance the 'corrupt' 'rigged' narrative and empower Trump voters.
In a normal campaign, I would agree, but Trump supporters expect him to be coddled and receive special treatment, which he shouldn't be getting because he won't get it once in office.
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« Reply #4 on: September 09, 2016, 11:35:15 AM »

Just what Erc said he'd do if he still lived here!

FWIW the Minnesota Supreme Court recently flipped to a 4-3 DFL appointed majority, and the Pawlenty appointed Chief Justice is the sort of person who has "#NeverTrump" written all over her. This could be interesting.
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« Reply #5 on: September 09, 2016, 11:56:55 AM »

Just what Erc said he'd do if he still lived here!

FWIW the Minnesota Supreme Court recently flipped to a 4-3 DFL appointed majority, and the Pawlenty appointed Chief Justice is the sort of person who has "#NeverTrump" written all over her. This could be interesting.

There's definitely a part of me that's glad this is going forward...though I'm really, really surprised it's the DFL that's going through with it.

I figured it would be the Libertarians or Evan McMullin, who would only gain from such a move.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #6 on: September 09, 2016, 12:06:47 PM »

Just what Erc said he'd do if he still lived here!

FWIW the Minnesota Supreme Court recently flipped to a 4-3 DFL appointed majority, and the Pawlenty appointed Chief Justice is the sort of person who has "#NeverTrump" written all over her. This could be interesting.

There's definitely a part of me that's glad this is going forward...though I'm really, really surprised it's the DFL that's going through with it.

If it works, it would be a YUGE help in capturing Lean R MN-3, which is being more seriously targeted than usual.
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« Reply #7 on: September 09, 2016, 12:07:43 PM »

Just what Erc said he'd do if he still lived here!

FWIW the Minnesota Supreme Court recently flipped to a 4-3 DFL appointed majority, and the Pawlenty appointed Chief Justice is the sort of person who has "#NeverTrump" written all over her. This could be interesting.

There's definitely a part of me that's glad this is going forward...though I'm really, really surprised it's the DFL that's going through with it.

I figured it would be the Libertarians or Evan McMullin, who would only gain from such a move.

I think the goal is obviously to depress Republican turnout and reap the benefits downballot.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #8 on: September 09, 2016, 12:08:20 PM »

There's definitely a part of me that's glad this is going forward...though I'm really, really surprised it's the DFL that's going through with it.

I figured it would be the Libertarians or Evan McMullin, who would only gain from such a move.

Trump not being on the ballot could be a disaster downballot for Republicans. You have to wonder how many Republicans would stay home, and then of the independent voters who show up but were the type to vote straight ticket, how many end up doing that for Clinton/DFL but would have for Trump/Republicans had Trump been on the ballot?

It wouldn't take that much to do damage. I'm inclined to think that Trump not being on the ballot would have a good chance of flipping MN-2/MN-3 and the Minnesota State House, which were already at varying levels of risk.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #9 on: September 09, 2016, 12:21:47 PM »

There's definitely a part of me that's glad this is going forward...though I'm really, really surprised it's the DFL that's going through with it.

I figured it would be the Libertarians or Evan McMullin, who would only gain from such a move.

Trump not being on the ballot could be a disaster downballot for Republicans. You have to wonder how many Republicans would stay home, and then of the independent voters who show up but were the type to vote straight ticket, how many end up doing that for Clinton/DFL but would have for Trump/Republicans had Trump been on the ballot?

MN doesn't have the straight-ticket option. Yeah a few people would manually do it for the DFL, but most who were planning on voting straight republican would notice that Trump was the only republican not listed, everyone else still is. The type of voter that comes in wanting to vote straight R but then votes straight D (in a state where they have to do it manually) because they can't quite do straight R probably doesn't exist in large numbers. I imagine there would be a lot of confusion, but I imagine poll workers would just tell people to write Trump in if they were asked about it, though I'm not sure if such votes are counted for presidential candidates without certified EC representatives (writeins are generally counted for lower offices).

The list of straight-ticket states is at the link below:
 
http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/straight-ticket-voting.aspx

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Virginiá
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« Reply #10 on: September 09, 2016, 12:26:01 PM »
« Edited: September 09, 2016, 12:27:43 PM by Virginia »

There's definitely a part of me that's glad this is going forward...though I'm really, really surprised it's the DFL that's going through with it.

I figured it would be the Libertarians or Evan McMullin, who would only gain from such a move.

Trump not being on the ballot could be a disaster downballot for Republicans. You have to wonder how many Republicans would stay home, and then of the independent voters who show up but were the type to vote straight ticket, how many end up doing that for Clinton/DFL but would have for Trump/Republicans had Trump been on the ballot?

MN doesn't have the straight-ticket option. Yeah a few people would manually do it for the DFL, but most who were planning on voting straight republican would notice that Trump was the only republican not listed, everyone else still is. The type of voter that comes in wanting to vote straight R but then votes straight D (in a state where they have to do it manually) because they can't quite do straight R probably doesn't exist in large numbers. I imagine there would be a lot of confusion, but I imagine poll workers would just tell people to write Trump in if they were asked about it, though I'm not sure if such votes are counted for presidential candidates without certified EC representatives (writeins are generally counted for lower offices).

The list of straight-ticket states is at the link below:
 
http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/straight-ticket-voting.aspx

Wulfric I know they don't have straight ticket. My use of the phrase was just to mean people who vote for the same party downticket, regardless of the official option or not.

The statistics for people splitting tickets suggest that most people vote straight ticket with or without the option. Of course I am referencing national average here, but still. If people did what you just suggested, the national rates of ticket splitting would be a lot higher. They aren't.

Further, I wasn't talking about a deluge of Republicans showing up and voting straight ticket for Democrats. I suggested their turnout would be depressed and other voters who might have voted Republican would vote Democrat simply because they don't often split tickets very much. They just vote for a "team."
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« Reply #11 on: September 09, 2016, 12:34:07 PM »

To be fair, this is all speculation. This isn't something that happens very often at all, so it's all sort of meaningless conjecture to talk about whether people are going to vote for a more cohesive team or an individual candidate. Granted, we can talk about cases where downballot elections lack a Democratic or Republican candidate, but that doesn't often end up statistically significant.

There's absolutely no way to call what's going to happen if Trump is left off the ballot, but I personally feel like Republicans will just pick some random other name because "anyone but Hillary and no chance of winning anyway" and then vote the rest of the Republican ticket. I really can not see anyone having a specific preference for a generic party in and of itself simply because it's a party.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #12 on: September 09, 2016, 12:36:40 PM »

There's definitely a part of me that's glad this is going forward...though I'm really, really surprised it's the DFL that's going through with it.

I figured it would be the Libertarians or Evan McMullin, who would only gain from such a move.

Trump not being on the ballot could be a disaster downballot for Republicans. You have to wonder how many Republicans would stay home, and then of the independent voters who show up but were the type to vote straight ticket, how many end up doing that for Clinton/DFL but would have for Trump/Republicans had Trump been on the ballot?

MN doesn't have the straight-ticket option. Yeah a few people would manually do it for the DFL, but most who were planning on voting straight republican would notice that Trump was the only republican not listed, everyone else still is. The type of voter that comes in wanting to vote straight R but then votes straight D (in a state where they have to do it manually) because they can't quite do straight R probably doesn't exist in large numbers. I imagine there would be a lot of confusion, but I imagine poll workers would just tell people to write Trump in if they were asked about it, though I'm not sure if such votes are counted for presidential candidates without certified EC representatives (writeins are generally counted for lower offices).

The list of straight-ticket states is at the link below:
 
http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/straight-ticket-voting.aspx

Wulfric I know they don't have straight ticket. My use of the phrase was just to mean people who vote for the same party downticket, regardless of the official option or not.

The statistics for people splitting tickets suggest that most people vote straight ticket with or without the option. Of course I am referencing national average here, but still. If people did what you just suggested, the national rates of ticket splitting would be a lot higher. They aren't.

Further, I wasn't talking about a deluge of Republicans showing up and voting straight ticket for Democrats. I suggested their turnout would be depressed and other voters who might have voted Republican would vote Democrat simply because they don't often split tickets very much. They just vote for a "team."

Do we have statistics on a situation like this though, where a major party was not on the ballot for president but was for other races in a state with a number of third parties on the ballot? The most recent example I can think of was 1960 when AL/MS voted for "unpledged democratic electors". Before that, I think you have to go back to 1860 when Lincoln wasn't on southern ballots.

I don't know for sure what will happen, and of course even a small effect could matter, but I do think it's more complicated than just glancing at statistics for normal circumstances since this wouldn't be normal at all.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #13 on: September 09, 2016, 12:42:09 PM »
« Edited: September 09, 2016, 12:46:51 PM by Virginia »

To be fair, this is all speculation. This isn't something that happens very often at all, so it's all sort of meaningless conjecture to talk about whether people are going to vote for a more cohesive team or an individual candidate.

I don't know for sure what will happen, and of course even a small effect could matter, but I do think it's more complicated than just glancing at statistics for normal circumstances since this wouldn't be normal at all.

For sure. I was only trying to say that current statistics give me more reason to believe that Democrats will receive a decent boost in support. It could not end up breaking that way, but I have more reason to believe it than not.

Doesn't seem fair to try and boot a candidate off the ballot for partisan gain, but at the same time, the fact that Trump's operation (and MNGOP?) are so disorganized that something like this can happen leaves little room for sympathy in my eyes.

--

ALSO, how long would it take the MN Supreme Court to rule on this? If I understand correctly, early voting in that state in some form or another begins as early as the end of the September, and they need time to print ballots, so wouldn't this decision have to come literally within the next 7~ days or so?
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« Reply #14 on: September 09, 2016, 01:00:38 PM »

To be fair, this is all speculation. This isn't something that happens very often at all, so it's all sort of meaningless conjecture to talk about whether people are going to vote for a more cohesive team or an individual candidate.

I don't know for sure what will happen, and of course even a small effect could matter, but I do think it's more complicated than just glancing at statistics for normal circumstances since this wouldn't be normal at all.

For sure. I was only trying to say that current statistics give me more reason to believe that Democrats will receive a decent boost in support. It could not end up breaking that way, but I have more reason to believe it than not.

Doesn't seem fair to try and boot a candidate off the ballot for partisan gain, but at the same time, the fact that Trump's operation (and MNGOP?) are so disorganized that something like this can happen leaves little room for sympathy in my eyes.

--

ALSO, how long would it take the MN Supreme Court to rule on this? If I understand correctly, early voting in that state in some form or another begins as early as the end of the September, and they need time to print ballots, so wouldn't this decision have to come literally within the next 7~ days or so?

The Minnesota Supreme Court is pretty quick on hearing election related stuff and always has been. Wouldn't surprise me if we get a hearing and decision on Monday.
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Erc
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« Reply #15 on: September 09, 2016, 01:01:06 PM »

Just what Erc said he'd do if he still lived here!

FWIW the Minnesota Supreme Court recently flipped to a 4-3 DFL appointed majority, and the Pawlenty appointed Chief Justice is the sort of person who has "#NeverTrump" written all over her. This could be interesting.

There's definitely a part of me that's glad this is going forward...though I'm really, really surprised it's the DFL that's going through with it.

I figured it would be the Libertarians or Evan McMullin, who would only gain from such a move.

I think the goal is obviously to depress Republican turnout and reap the benefits downballot.

Quite right.  The DFL really has nothing to lose here; only Democrats in other states (and even then it's arguable).
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« Reply #16 on: September 09, 2016, 01:17:11 PM »

In 2012 Secretary of State Mark Ritchie tried to change the titles of both the Voter ID and gay marriage ban amendments to more negative sounding titles. A bunch of Republican legislators filed suit and the State Supreme Court blocked it. The Limmer v. Ritchie case was filed July 26, 2012 and decided August 27. So about a month. Here they'd have to expedite that obviously. It was a 4-2 decision (Justice Wilhelmina Wright had only been sworn in after the case had been heard). Neither of the dissenting justices is still on the court (of course Dayton appointed their successors). And for that matter none of the Dayton appointees were on the Court at that time either (ironically Wright is no longer on the court, she resigned her seat to take a federal court appointment earlier this year). At the time the Minnesota Supreme Court had a 5-1-1 makeup, of 5 Republican appointees (but one of those who dissented: Paul Anderson was appointed by sort of RINO Hillary endorsing this year Governor Arne Carlson and was a liberal ala John Paul Stevens), one who was elected to an open seat but was a liberal (Alan Page) and one appointed by Dayton (Wright, who as noted did not rule on the case). So there's no real precedent for how a DFL appointed majority like this would rule.

Hmmmm...
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« Reply #17 on: September 09, 2016, 01:30:01 PM »

Just what Erc said he'd do if he still lived here!

FWIW the Minnesota Supreme Court recently flipped to a 4-3 DFL appointed majority, and the Pawlenty appointed Chief Justice is the sort of person who has "#NeverTrump" written all over her. This could be interesting.

There's definitely a part of me that's glad this is going forward...though I'm really, really surprised it's the DFL that's going through with it.

I figured it would be the Libertarians or Evan McMullin, who would only gain from such a move.

I think the goal is obviously to depress Republican turnout and reap the benefits downballot.

Quite right.  The DFL really has nothing to lose here; only Democrats in other states (and even then it's arguable).

The only way this could backfire on the DFL is if the third parties got major status as a result as noted, though as I said I don't think they fear the Libertarians or a return of the IP. Do hope this doesn't encourage people knowing Trump won't win to vote Stein though.
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« Reply #18 on: September 09, 2016, 01:42:13 PM »

Hillary's gonna win MN anyway most likely so why bother? But if you want to help Gary Johnson, go for it DFLosers!
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« Reply #19 on: September 09, 2016, 01:51:07 PM »

“It is likely none of the Republican electors were legally elected.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-minnesota-ballot_us_57d2301de4b00642712ce14f

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Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #20 on: September 09, 2016, 01:52:17 PM »

Already a thread on this.
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DoctorWinstonOBoogie
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« Reply #21 on: September 09, 2016, 02:26:19 PM »

No way a presidential election is run in a U.S. state without a Democrat or a Republican on the ballot (unless they don't want to be, for some reason). Donald and Hillary will both be on that ballot.
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« Reply #22 on: September 09, 2016, 02:27:07 PM »

Would be the first time a major party nominee wasn't on the ballot in a state since Lyndon Johnson in Alabama in 1964.
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Wells
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« Reply #23 on: September 09, 2016, 02:28:19 PM »

This wouldn't be good for optics, Trump could continue his rigged narrative. It's better to just put him on the ballot. He's not going to win Minnesota anyway.
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« Reply #24 on: September 09, 2016, 02:38:10 PM »

This wouldn't be good for optics, Trump could continue his rigged narrative. It's better to just put him on the ballot. He's not going to win Minnesota anyway.
Yeah.  There would be a backlash against the DFL if they succeed.
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