Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Nevada
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  Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Nevada
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Poll
Question: Rate Nevada and Predict Who Will Win
#1
Safe D
 
#2
Likely D
 
#3
Lean D
 
#4
Toss-Up
 
#5
Lean R
 
#6
Likely R
 
#7
Safe R
 
#8
Clinton
 
#9
Trump
 
#10
Other
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 136

Calculate results by number of options selected
Author Topic: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Nevada  (Read 3363 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: September 09, 2016, 08:51:00 AM »

Two votes. One for a rating (Safe D, Lean R, Toss-Up, etc.) and one for a prediction of who will win (Clinton, Trump, or Other).

Note: If you think Johnson/Other will win a state, just vote 'Other' and don't vote for a rating.

Update/vote in these threads if you haven't already! There's no time limit and you can still affect the overall result:

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine ME-01 ME-02 Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska NE-01 NE-02 NE-03

Ratings



Colorado: Lean D --> Likely D

Safe Clinton: 126
Likely Clinton: 25
Lean Clinton: 30
Toss-Up: 18
Lean Trump: 26
Likely Trump: 18
Safe Trump: 50

Clinton: 181
Trump: 94
Toss-Up: 18

Predictions



Clinton: 188
Trump: 105

Nevada: Lean D, 50-44 Clinton. Colorado is Likely D again by just one vote.
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mencken
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« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2016, 08:53:18 AM »

Clinton wins by less than her national margin.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2016, 08:54:22 AM »

Undecided between Tossup and Lean D, but voted Tossup for now.

Clinton 49
Trump 46.5
Others 4.5
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: September 09, 2016, 08:58:09 AM »
« Edited: September 09, 2016, 09:00:21 AM by Assemblyman Gass3268 »

Lean D, Clinton will end up winning by 5-7 points.

Also I want to give a big thanks to ElectionsGuy for putting in all the work for this series. It's been really fun to do and it's been cool to see the changes.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #4 on: September 09, 2016, 09:03:39 AM »

The issue isn't whether Hillary will win, it's the margin. I agree with the mid-single digits.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #5 on: September 09, 2016, 09:36:45 AM »
« Edited: September 09, 2016, 10:02:41 AM by heatcharger »

Lean Likely D. Clinton.

Clinton 50
Trump 44
Others 6
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KingSweden
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« Reply #6 on: September 09, 2016, 09:50:33 AM »

Lean D, Clinton will end up winning by 5-7 points.

Also I want to give a big thanks to ElectionsGuy for putting in all the work for this series. It's been really fun to do and it's been cool to see the changes.

Seconded. This has been an inviting read
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hurricanehink
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« Reply #7 on: September 09, 2016, 09:53:01 AM »

I put likely D. Polls underperform for the minority Democrats here, and if Clinton's turnout machine is as good as Obama's, it should be a decent win. Likely D because it could be decent for Johnson (who has been getting 5-9% in polls pre Aleppo-gate) as well as Nevada's quirky "None of the Above" option, which IMO would steal from Trump voters who are more Sandoval/Heller type republicans.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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« Reply #8 on: September 09, 2016, 10:12:42 AM »
« Edited: September 09, 2016, 11:08:39 AM by John Ewards »

Tossup. 45-42 Clinton. Please, for the love of God, stop unskewing.
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JMT
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« Reply #9 on: September 09, 2016, 10:15:39 AM »

Lean D, Clinton wins by 4-6 points.

And I agree with the others, thanks ElectionsGuy for putting all these together! It's nice to see what other members think about the race ratings for each state
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #10 on: September 09, 2016, 10:55:27 AM »

You've all probably heard my spiel before, so I'll spare you all the details. I'll acknowledge that it's possible the polls showing a very close race are correct. I don't think that they are, and I have evidence to back up that belief, but I'll concede that it's possible I'm wrong.

Likely D, Hillary wins 52-44.

Also, agreed that the work ElectionsGuy has put into these threads is amazing.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #11 on: September 09, 2016, 11:55:31 AM »

Please, for the love of God, stop unskewing.

The whole point of these threads is for people to give their own personal prediction. Not everyone is going to read/analyze the polls the same way, or factor them into their prediction to the same degree. If you want to take the Nevada polls at face value, go right ahead, but don't act like everyone else has to follow suit.
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Tiger front
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« Reply #12 on: September 09, 2016, 12:38:55 PM »

Likely D.
Clinton 51%
Trump 44%
Other 5%
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AGA
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« Reply #13 on: September 09, 2016, 04:47:43 PM »

Lean D

Clinton: 50%
Trump: 43%
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Maxwell
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« Reply #14 on: September 09, 2016, 04:51:39 PM »

I'd be surprised if Clinton lost here, but Toss-up/Tilt D.
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tinman64
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« Reply #15 on: September 09, 2016, 05:24:41 PM »

Likely D. Poll underperformance in NV.

Clinton 50
Trump 41
Others 9
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #16 on: September 09, 2016, 05:27:11 PM »

Leans democrat, clinton.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #17 on: September 09, 2016, 05:33:59 PM »
« Edited: September 09, 2016, 05:53:51 PM by John Ewards »

oh my god this "Nevada R bias" meme needs to die

look at the 2012 RCP averages. Yes, Nevada polls underestimated Obama's margin by 4 points. However, when you consider that national polls underestimated him by 3 at the same time, this doesn't look all that different from what you would expect. Now, granted, in 2008 NV polls underestimated him by an average of 6 points, while national polls were dead-on or even overestimated him a bit. However, I'm willing to take this as an anomaly, or to accept that pollsters learned their lessons and moved on. Because this constant whining about NV polls- which, like it or not, IS unskewing virtually by definition- is going to die on election night, just like every other "unskewing" conspiracy theory.
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Spark
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« Reply #18 on: September 09, 2016, 05:51:23 PM »
« Edited: September 24, 2016, 05:11:17 PM by Spark498 »

Toss-up

Trump 47
Clinton 49
Johnson 1
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #19 on: September 09, 2016, 09:11:05 PM »

Lean D
Clinton 50-46-4
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #20 on: September 09, 2016, 09:14:27 PM »

Tossup, Clinton 50-47
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President Johnson
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« Reply #21 on: September 10, 2016, 04:27:00 AM »

As of now, toss-up.

However, I think Hillary will win the silver state easily.

Clinton: 51%
Trump: 46%
Others: 3%
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #22 on: September 10, 2016, 11:35:02 AM »

Lean D.

My prediction:

✓ Clinton: 51.7%
Trump: 45.4%
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #23 on: September 10, 2016, 11:40:27 AM »

Also I want to give a big thanks to ElectionsGuy for putting in all the work for this series. It's been really fun to do and it's been cool to see the changes.
And I agree with the others, thanks ElectionsGuy for putting all these together! It's nice to see what other members think about the race ratings for each state
Also, agreed that the work ElectionsGuy has put into these threads is amazing.

Aww thanks guys Smiley I love that you love this.
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ElectionsGuy
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E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« Reply #24 on: September 10, 2016, 11:11:59 PM »

In case anyone wants to know, here's my 'schedule' for the rest of this series:

September 11th – New Hampshire
September 14th – New Jersey
September 16th – New Mexico
September 18th – New York
September 20th – North Carolina
September 22nd – North Dakota
September 24th – Ohio
September 26th – Oklahoma
September 29th – Oregon
October 1st – Pennsylvania
October 3rd – Rhode Island
October 5th – South Carolina
October 7th – South Dakota
October 9th – Tennessee
October 11th – Texas
October 13th – Utah
October 16th – Vermont
October 18th – Virginia
October 20th – Washington
October 22nd – West Virginia
October 24th – Wisconsin
October 26th – Wyoming
October 28th – One Week Notice
November 5th Midnight – Lock all threads
As soon as I can after (November 5-7th) – Results Thread
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