NYT Senate Odds Up

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Overall Control: 54% chance of Democratic control, mostly because it has Hillary an 81% favorite to win the presidency; Republicans would be favored if it had the White House 50-50.

Key Races:

Colorado: >99% D
Wisconsin: 88% D
Illinois: 78% D
New Hampshire: 63% D
Pennsylvania: 57% D
Indiana: 56% D
Nevada: 61% R
Florida: 69% R
North Carolina: 75% R
Arizona: 83% R
Missouri: 84% R
Ohio: 88% R
Louisiana: 91% R
Kentucky: 94% R
Georgia: 94% R
Iowa: 95% R
Arkansas: 99% R
Kansas: 99% R

All not listed are >99% for the incumbent party.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

NC is definitely too high for Republicans, I'd argue that AZ and MO are as well but not by as much.

Intrigued by Nevada - I definitely wouldn't have put R as favored let alone by 22%.

[progressive85]

I wonder if NV Latinos are being undercounted in the polling there.  I can't see Hillary winning the state and Catherine Cortez Masto not being elected with her.

[Heisenberg]

I wonder if NV Latinos are being undercounted in the polling there.  I can't see Hillary winning the state and Catherine Cortez Masto not being elected with her.

Somewhere I saw a poll from Latino Decisions that showed Heck overperform Trump 17 points with Latinos. IF the race is close that could make the difference.

[Xing]

LOL at Nevada, but the rest seems reasonable, although I wouldn't put Kentucky above Georgia and Iowa.

[Lief 🗽]

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rofl

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Update (a certain poster won't like that Ayotte is now favored):

From order of most likely to flip:
Indiana(!!): 93%
Wisconsin: 88%
Illinois: 78%
Nevada: 58% to flip to R
Pennsylvania: 56%
New Hampshire: 43%
Florida: 26%
North Carolina: 21%
Missouri: 16%
Louisiana: 10%
Ohio: 8%
Kentucky: 6%
Iowa: 5%
Arizona: 5%

Overall Projection: 50-50 Senate, Democrats favored 54%-46% due to their having Clinton a 79% favorite.

[Figueira]

The NH odds are a result of that Marist poll. I don'tthink Ayotte is really favored.

Also WTF Indiana

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nevada will be won on election night. I think Clinton will hold the 272 blue wall. Pa, NV & CO. I don't see how Vegas doesn't turn out Golden.

[Xing]

Wow, I guess the Marist polls did a number on those odds.

[Figueira]

Also the idea that the chances of a Democratic Senate if there's a 50-50 split is exactly the same as Clinton's presidential odds is kind of silly. It's very hard for the Democrats to get 50 Senate seats if they're losing the presidential election. Vaguely possible, but still hard.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Also the idea that the chances of a Democratic Senate if there's a 50-50 split is exactly the same as Clinton's presidential odds is kind of silly. It's very hard for the Democrats to get 50 Senate seats if they're losing the presidential election. Vaguely possible, but still hard.

Cook actually predicts it. But Dems will win IN for the 51st seat which was a Gift after the receding prospects of OH & FL

[100% pro-life no matter what]

UPDATE:

Overall Majority: 53% R (+7)

Indiana: 92% D (-1)
Wisconsin: 87% D (-1)
Illinois: 77% D (-1)
Pennsylvania: 55% D (-1)
Nevada: 58% R (NC)
New Hampshire: 59% R (+2)
North Carolina: 80% R (+1)
Florida: 84% R (+10)
Missouri: 84% R (NC)
Louisiana: 91% R (+1)
Kentucky: 94% R (NC)
Arizona: 95% R (NC)
Ohio: 97% R (+5)
Iowa: 99% R (+4)

Vice-presidency: 74% D (-5), but still far higher than 538 and others