The absentee/early vote thread

[Tender Branson]

With NC starting their absentee voting today, it's about time for a thread.

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[Maxwell]

I don't know what early voting vs. election day voting looked like in 2012, but the margin between Democrat and Republican registration is a lot narrower than it was in 2012 (37-35 vs. 39-33).

[Tender Branson]

Of the 28,187 NC ballots sent as of today:

81.6% White 11.2% Black 1.3% Asian 0.2% Native American

37.5% Dem 34.7% Rep 27.6% Unaffiliated 0.3% Lib

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Go Hillary!!! Win NC.

[Tender Branson]

I don't know what early voting vs. election day voting looked like in 2012, but the margin between Democrat and Republican registration is a lot narrower than it was in 2012 (37-35 vs. 39-33).

The current voter registration in NC is 40% D, 30% R, 30% Others.

6.7 million registered voters altogether.

[LLR]

There's that guy who tracks early voting, and I think from him early voting in NC in 2012 was +5-10 Republican.

[LLR]

There's that guy who tracks early voting, and I think from him early voting in NC in 2012 was +5-10 Republican.

Link?

I forget, anyone else know what I mean? I recall it being in the previous NC early voting thread from a week or so ago.

[Xing]

The results so far don't look that great for Hillary (compared with 2012), but it's VERY early. I remember that when most of the early votes were counted in 2012, Obama had a narrow lead over Romney, but he ended up losing by 2. Kay Hagan had a larger lead once the early votes were counted, about 5 points, but she also lost.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Of the 28,187 NC ballots sent as of today:

81.6% White 11.2% Black 1.3% Asian 0.2% Native American

37.5% Dem 34.7% Rep 27.6% Unaffiliated 0.3% Lib

Would you, please, link to the source?

Does it update every day?

[Gass3268]

Interesting.  Keep in mind that the primary early vote was consistently very Trumpy, much more so than on election day in many competitive states.  I definitely am no going into this expecting Clinton to romp in the early vote like Obama generally did in 2012.  Trump's base is very enthusiastic, probably more so than Clinton's base.  The question is whether anti-Trump R's actually show up on election day.  Core NeverTrump types tend to be against early voting on principle.

Clinton also destroyed Sanders when it came to the early vote, in almost every state.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I don't know what early voting vs. election day voting looked like in 2012, but the margin between Democrat and Republican registration is a lot narrower than it was in 2012 (37-35 vs. 39-33).

The current voter registration in NC is 40% D, 30% R, 30% Others.

6.7 million registered voters altogether.

Before anyone screams "D+10! YEAH!!!", I would note that this was a state where there was a slew of rural counties voting for Sanders as an "anti-establishment" vote by nominal Democrats who will mostly vote for Trump in the general. So the D advantage is misleading.

[Gass3268]

I don't know what early voting vs. election day voting looked like in 2012, but the margin between Democrat and Republican registration is a lot narrower than it was in 2012 (37-35 vs. 39-33).

The current voter registration in NC is 40% D, 30% R, 30% Others.

6.7 million registered voters altogether.

So did Democrats go from +2 to +10 since the primary?

[/]

Considering the partisan difference in registration is D+10 but the partisan difference in early requests is only D+2, I'd say this is pretty good news for Republicans.

Of course, I know early requests generally skew Republican and yadda yadda yadda, but still.

[Dr. Arch]

Of the 28,187 NC ballots sent as of today:

81.6% White 11.2% Black 1.3% Asian 0.2% Native American

37.5% Dem 34.7% Rep 27.6% Unaffiliated 0.3% Lib

Is this number updated daily or?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I think, I founded the source, that updates (daily?).

There is probably a simpler way, who knows.

I founded it on http://www.ncsbe.gov/  "Download Data" section. If you then from  https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/list.html go to "ENRS/" folder and choose sort by "LastModified", you will find a file named "absentee11xx08xx2016.zip".

It is an csv file that can be opened for example by Excel.

According to it:

37810 have voted so far:

DEM: 14005, 37.0%
REP:  13165, 34.8%
LIB:      120,   0.3%
UNA: 10520, 27.8%


EDIT: last update was 11 hours ago. They probably won't update under weekend.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I think, I founded the source, that updates (daily?).

There is probably a simpler way, who knows.

I founded it on http://www.ncsbe.gov/  "Download Data" section. If you then from  https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/list.html go to "ENRS/" folder and choose sort by "LastModified", you will find a file named "absentee11xx08xx2016.zip".

It is an csv file that can be opened for example by Excel.

According to it:

37810 have voted so far:

DEM: 14005, 37.0%
REP:  13165, 34.8%
LIB:      120,   0.3%
UNA: 10520, 27.8%

Thanks. Can you update those numbers for us every day?

IDK, probably. But I think, there are plenty of statistics junkies, who'd love to do it on daily basis.

Tender?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I've made a tiny Python script that shows demographics stats as well.

Total:
DEM    14006
REP    13169
UNA    10520
LIB      120

Men:
REP    5831
DEM    4935
UNA    4771
LIB      75

Women:
DEM    8864
REP    7199
UNA    5455
LIB      40

Undecided:
UNA    294
DEM    207
REP    139
LIB      5

18-29:
UNA    2494
DEM    2142
REP    1761
LIB      44

30-44:
DEM    1767
UNA    1652
REP    1397
LIB      45

45-64:
DEM    3173
REP    3123
UNA    2399
LIB      20

65 & over:
DEM    6924
REP    6888
UNA    3975
LIB      11

White:
REP    12488
DEM     9388
UNA     8746
LIB       90

Other: (includes UNDESIGNATED)
DEM    4618
UNA    1774
REP     681
LIB      30

[HillOfANight]

I think, I founded the source, that updates (daily?)
37810 have voted so far:

Is that voted though, or requests?
https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/774603224967892992
Per Michael McDonald

As of yesterday in NC:
27 people have voted
37,758 outstanding ballot reqs

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I think, I founded the source, that updates (daily?)
37810 have voted so far:

Is that voted though, or requests?
https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/774603224967892992
Per Michael McDonald

As of yesterday in NC:
27 people have voted
37,758 outstanding ballot reqs

Yes, you are right.

Requests.

[Ebsy]

I wouldn't read too much into absentee ballot request data until closer to election day.

[ag]

 https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/list.html

Why not the direct link?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

 https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/list.html

Why not the direct link?

Because they might change the name of file. Who knows.

https://dl.ncsbe.gov.s3.amazonaws.com/ENRS/absentee11xx08xx2016.zip

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Can you just post the numbers? I can't find the right page.

This file
https://dl.ncsbe.gov.s3.amazonaws.com/ENRS/absentee11xx08xx2016.zip

Column "ballot_request_party"

They updated the zip-file today (they seem to update it each morning), but the data itself hasn't been updated..

[jman123]

Sept 24 NJ starts mailing main in ballots

[Erich Maria Remarque]

It is, of course, to early (just 38K so far have requested a ballot vs 2.7M that voted in 2012). But still:

Cumulative sum by date of request (Note: overlapping!!):
green = unaffiliated