The absentee/early vote thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

On this note, wouldn't we expect that if Trump was activating massive numbers of low propensity white voters that the Midwest would be exactly where turnout would be surging, since it has the most of them?

you are technically correct, even while....are there really states which are better for republicans if the turnout is high?

Then again most of the Trumpers don't approve of ANY early voting. I keep seeing how voting should only be allowed one day and if you can't make it that's your own problem. So I'm sure a lot of them won't vote until election day.

Funny enough the biggest Trump supporter I know isn't going to vote. Hoping there's a lot of them that are like that.

The biggest Trump supporter I know has said the same thing, although I'm not sure I believe him.

What are these people's reasons?

In my case, it's because he thinks Clinton has the election in the bag (nationally; not necessarily in Georgia) and there are zero competitive downballot races.

[MasterJedi]

On this note, wouldn't we expect that if Trump was activating massive numbers of low propensity white voters that the Midwest would be exactly where turnout would be surging, since it has the most of them?

you are technically correct, even while....are there really states which are better for republicans if the turnout is high?

Then again most of the Trumpers don't approve of ANY early voting. I keep seeing how voting should only be allowed one day and if you can't make it that's your own problem. So I'm sure a lot of them won't vote until election day.

Funny enough the biggest Trump supporter I know isn't going to vote. Hoping there's a lot of them that are like that.

The biggest Trump supporter I know has said the same thing, although I'm not sure I believe him.

What are these people's reasons?

Don't know the actual reason but he has said he thinks voting is stupid, so probably why he supports Trump. Served in the military (only on base, got a medal for running into the back of a truck during the one mortar attack on the base) and has cycled through jobs because he either quits or gets fired from complaining nonstop/being lazy/calling in "sick" too many times. Complains about Democrats and people who don't work though, so general low class white trash.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I caved and went to early vote with some coworkers today and in my Volusia county early voting precinct I was number 15,380, lots of people around the Hillary stand not many for the Trump stand. There was also a Johnson Stand too.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I caved and went to early vote with some coworkers today and in my Volusia county early voting precinct I was number 15,380, lots of people around the Hillary stand not many for the Trump stand. There was also a Johnson Stand too.

You have candidate stands in/near the polling place?  That's interesting.  Georgia is different; it prohibits any kind of campaigning or politicking, even signs, within 150 feet of the polling place.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I caved and went to early vote with some coworkers today and in my Volusia county early voting precinct I was number 15,380, lots of people around the Hillary stand not many for the Trump stand. There was also a Johnson Stand too.

You have candidate stands in/near the polling place?  That's interesting.  Georgia is different; it prohibits any kind of campaigning or politicking, even signs, within 150 feet of the polling place.

They had to be a certain distance away from the actual voting, the parking lot was huge, it took abour two minutes to walk from the closest candidate booth to the line for voting.

Interesting note, Patrick Murphy presence was no where to be found but there was Rubio signs everywhere

[BoAtlantis]

On this note, wouldn't we expect that if Trump was activating massive numbers of low propensity white voters that the Midwest would be exactly where turnout would be surging, since it has the most of them?

you are technically correct, even while....are there really states which are better for republicans if the turnout is high?

Then again most of the Trumpers don't approve of ANY early voting. I keep seeing how voting should only be allowed one day and if you can't make it that's your own problem. So I'm sure a lot of them won't vote until election day.

Funny enough the biggest Trump supporter I know isn't going to vote. Hoping there's a lot of them that are like that.

The biggest Trump supporter I know has said the same thing, although I'm not sure I believe him.

What are these people's reasons?

Don't know the actual reason but he has said he thinks voting is stupid, so probably why he supports Trump. Served in the military (only on base, got a medal for running into the back of a truck during the one mortar attack on the base) and has cycled through jobs because he either quits or gets fired from complaining nonstop/being lazy/calling in "sick" too many times. Complains about Democrats and people who don't work though, so general low class white trash.

What people misunderstand is that working class or non-working class isn't that strong of a predictor. Here in NY at least, income doesn't predict whether one is a Democrat or not. It correlates much more with religion.

At my work, all the white Catholics are for Trump and all the atheist or infrequent churchgoers are for Hillary or Johnson. I'm the only protestant Christian that supports Hillary but me being non-white probably is a factor.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 1h1 hour ago

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Hopefully she can win the second biggest county today also.

[NOVA Green]

Status on OR

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/28/1587774/-One-more-state-where-Democratic-turnout-is-looking-good

In 2008 Barack Obama won 13 counties
In 2012, he only won 10 counties in the state, and four of the top seven in population.

"Registered Democrats currently have turned in more ballots than Republicans in 17 of Oregon’s 36 counties. Including all seven of the most populous counties. Currently Democratic turnout is at 14.8% and Republican turnout is 12.2%. This is not normal. Usually, unless it is a very good election for us, Republican turnout is at east as high as Democratic turnout."

So far 49.7% of voters are Democrats to 29.7% Republicans. In registered voters, Democrats lead 38.9% to 28.2%, so that 2.6% edge in turnout so far leads to us significantly outperforming registration.

It is extremely interesting to see Democratic early VbMs in Oregon starting with such a high lead for the Democratic votes visa-a-vis Republicans.

Also, voter turnout on the 4th reporting day in 2016 is 420k returned ballots versus 250k in 2012.

Some of that might be a factor of a number of Indies switching party registration to Democratic in order to be able to vote in the Primaries for Bernie that won the state in a landslide, and frequently voters don't shift back registration between the primaries and GE.

Additionally, Oregon now has automatic driver license voter registration, which is likely expanding voter registration levels among first-time drivers, as well as those who need to renew their driver's license every 7-8 years.

It is interesting that early Dem ballots returned actually have Democrats leading by small numbers in downstate Oregon Blue Collar Coastal Oregon counties that have shifted Republican over the past few decades (Columbia, Coos, Tillamook).

If we look at Metro Portland EVs so far (~55% of the statewide total vote):

Multnomah:  EV (70-16-14) D-R-NA vs RV (59-14-27)
Washington: EV  (55-29-16) D-R-NA vs RV  (42-28-30)
Clackamas: EV  (51-33-15) D-R-NA vs RV (39-33-28)

Note: That in Multnomah and Washington counties the lion's share of Independent voters vote Dem in Presidential elections.

Democrats are voting earlier and in heavier numbers than ever before, not only the most populated region of the state, which was also a major under-performing region for Trump who essentially ran unopposed in the Oregon Primary. Republican votes are basically stagnant compared to their RV numbers, and will likely drop significantly once Indies start voting en masse closer to ED.

At this point I would not be surprised to see Clinton's vote percentages create a record in Multnomah and Washington Counties, even with 3rd party votes....

Also, note that Democratic ballots are currently exceeding Republican numbers, in some cases significantly in the upper Willamette Valley counties of Polk, Yamhill, and Marion, all of which I predict will be Democratic Party flips in November.

Edited: To correct Multnomah County NA RV numbers.

[Alcon]

^ Matches the VBM patterns in Washington so far.  We don't have party registration, but I've seen the data.

[NOVA Green]

^ Matches the VBM patterns in Washington so far.  We don't have party registration, but I've seen the data.

So what are you seeing for early VBM numbers in Clark and Pierce Counties thus far for relatively Blue Collar parts of the state?

Also, what's going on in Whitman and Spokane counties with VBMs in Eastern Washington, as well as some smaller counties along the Columbia River Gorge?

How's your Washington state flip map working based on what your early numbers are showing?

[Classic Conservative]

I caved and went to early vote with some coworkers today and in my Volusia county early voting precinct I was number 15,380, lots of people around the Hillary stand not many for the Trump stand. There was also a Johnson Stand too.

Who do your coworkers like?

[Alcon]

^ Matches the VBM patterns in Washington so far.  We don't have party registration, but I've seen the data.

So what are you seeing for early VBM numbers in Clark and Pierce Counties thus far for relatively Blue Collar parts of the state?

I've been looking at the return rates among voters who participated in our useless May presidential primary as a gauge of enthusiasm -- especially since you'd figure those folks are disproportionately hardcore party faithful.  So far, Democratic returns outpace Republican turns about 27.2% to 22.8%.  The gap is mostly pretty uniform statewide.  King is slightly higher than average, but among the 36/39 counties reporting statistics, only two have a higher return rate among Republicans.  Those are Okanogan, which had a high-turnout ballot measure on the May ballot, so I wouldn't pay that due, and Grays Harbor, a working-class Dem-leaning county where Trump did quite well in the primary.

Oddly enough, Spokane has an even bigger gap (30.1% vs. 24.8%) than King.

Also, what's going on in Whitman and Spokane counties with VBMs in Eastern Washington, as well as some smaller counties along the Columbia River Gorge?

Sorry, in what way?

How's your Washington state flip map working based on what your early numbers are showing?

Eh, I'm reluctant to read too much into this.  I think it's a good sign for the Democrats, but considering today's national news and how vague these tea leaves are, I'm not overthinking it.  I expect turnout to even out, and after today, we may see the enthusiasm gap reverse slightly.  Who knows

[ApatheticAustrian]

absentee voting in MI thrives....

Absentee ballots on the rise in Michigan
http://www.wilx.com/content/news/Absentee-ballots-on-the-rise-in-Michigan-398878931.html

much more republican ballots but democrats return them reaaaaaaalllllly fast.

[Ebsy]

I believe Michigan is a state where Republicans typically outpace Democrats in absentee voting.

[The Other Castro]

I believe Michigan is a state where Republicans typically outpace Democrats in absentee voting.

Strict excuse absentee ballots.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I believe Michigan is a state where Republicans typically outpace Democrats in absentee voting.

Yup.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 1m1 minute ago

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Hopefully Hillary's lead increases.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 1m1 minute ago

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Hopefully Hillary's lead increases.

Yes yes please. Early voting is more important now than ever.

[dspNY]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 1m1 minute ago

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Hopefully Hillary's lead increases.

Dems won Washoe County by 20 votes today (just in-person early vote)

https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

[ApatheticAustrian]

trump seems to dominate ohio EV


http://www.cleveland.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/10/early_vote_numbers_in_ohio_sug.html

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[ApatheticAustrian]

Dems won Washoe County by 20 votes today (just in-person early vote)
https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

weekend should be good for dems...

if reps don't overcome the advantage in washoe next week, their goose is cooked, sliced and served.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 1m1 minute ago

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Hopefully Hillary's lead increases.

Dems won Washoe County by 20 votes today (just in-person early vote)

https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 13m
Democrats won narrowly in Washoe today, keep about a 2,400-vote lead in slightly GOP county.
 Dem - 2,802
 GOP - 2,782

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

So far here in Volusia county, Florida 93,000 people have voted so far and the partisan breakdown is 39,000 Republicans, 35,000 Democrats and 19,000 NPA

[dspNY]

Dems won Washoe County by 20 votes today (just in-person early vote)
https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

weekend should be good for dems...

if reps don't overcome the advantage in washoe next week, their goose is cooked, sliced and served.

Dems have a larger lead in Washoe this time than they did in 2012. Combined with what is expected to come out of Vegas (Clark) today, Dems will be in a better position than they were in 2012 statewide

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Nevada at the completion of the first week of 2012 seen a 29,187 Democrat lead in inperson voting and a ~535 early mail in lead for the republicans. So for a overall lead of 28,652 votes for the Democrats.

http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2501

Today at the 10am update the early mail in lead for the republicans was 2,053.

http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543