The absentee/early vote thread

[Ozymandias]

From latest Quinnipiac poll: https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2397

"North Carolina likely voters who cast early ballots go 62 - 34 percent for Clinton."

wth believe that skewed poll ?

get this trhough your head.    

Black voter turnouts 26.6% decreased compare with 2012.

Which makes Trump's position even worse, because when the Black vote does come in-- and despite NC Republicans' best suppression efforts, it will-- Clinton will be in even better shape (relative to 2012 early voting) than she is now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

From latest Quinnipiac poll: https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2397

"North Carolina likely voters who cast early ballots go 62 - 34 percent for Clinton."

wth believe that skewed poll ?

get this trhough your head.    

Black voter turnouts 26.6% decreased compare with 2012.

You asked for facts.  They gave you facts.  So you dismiss the facts as skewed.

Grow up.

[Ozymandias]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  6m6 minutes ago
"Amazing how close '16 in NV is to '12 after a week of early/mail voting:
Dem lead '16: 29K
Dem lead '12: 29K
% lead '16: 7.5
% lead '12: 8"

fyi, Obama won in 2012 by 6.7 pts

[Antonio the Sixth]

So % Dem lead in NV is down. I'm sorry, but I'm disappointed.

[Dr. Arch]

So % Dem lead in NV is down. I'm sorry, but I'm disappointed.

Disappointed for half a percentage point? Let's wait until after the weekend. There should be a wave of voters coming in then.

[dspNY]

So % Dem lead in NV is down. I'm sorry, but I'm disappointed.

It basically parallels 2012 and that's all we need to win NV

[JerryArkansas]

So % Dem lead in NV is down. I'm sorry, but I'm disappointed.

It basically parallels 2012 and that's all we need to win NV

Tony wants a 50 point win, anything less than that is bad, even if Hillary wins by a 2012 margin.

[dspNY]

What still gets me is that Clinton leads in the polling crosstabs of people who have already voted by a much larger amount than party ID would indicate. This didn't happen in either of Obama's wins where the early vote subsamples largely mirrored party ID and demographic voting rates

[Dr. Arch]

What still gets me is that Clinton leads in the polling crosstabs of people who have already voted by a much larger amount than party ID would indicate. This didn't happen in either of Obama's wins where the early vote subsamples largely mirrored party ID and demographic voting rates

A lot of Republican and last-minute undecided voters breaking with the top ticket most likely.

[Speed of Sound]

What still gets me is that Clinton leads in the polling crosstabs of people who have already voted by a much larger amount than party ID would indicate. This didn't happen in either of Obama's wins where the early vote subsamples largely mirrored party ID and demographic voting rates

Didn't happen in the final result in the state, or didn't happen in the polls of early voters?

[BoAtlantis]

What still gets me is that Clinton leads in the polling crosstabs of people who have already voted by a much larger amount than party ID would indicate. This didn't happen in either of Obama's wins where the early vote subsamples largely mirrored party ID and demographic voting rates

Tom Bonier of TargetSmart essentially said some people lie about having voted early.

It's far better to rely on the modeling.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So % Dem lead in NV is down. I'm sorry, but I'm disappointed.

It basically parallels 2012 and that's all we need to win NV

Tony wants a 50 point win, anything less than that is bad, even if Hillary wins by a 2012 margin.

Are you aware that there's a Senate race in Nevada too?

[dspNY]

What still gets me is that Clinton leads in the polling crosstabs of people who have already voted by a much larger amount than party ID would indicate. This didn't happen in either of Obama's wins where the early vote subsamples largely mirrored party ID and demographic voting rates

Didn't happen in the final result in the state, or didn't happen in the polls of early voters?

In the polls of early voters...

PPP polled NC twice with the early voter question. Obama led by 17 about 10 days before the election and by 9 in their final NC poll. The party ID difference was about 17-18 points in favor of Democrats through the 2012 early voting period

[Speed of Sound]

What still gets me is that Clinton leads in the polling crosstabs of people who have already voted by a much larger amount than party ID would indicate. This didn't happen in either of Obama's wins where the early vote subsamples largely mirrored party ID and demographic voting rates

Didn't happen in the final result in the state, or didn't happen in the polls of early voters?

In the polls of early voters...

PPP polled NC twice with the early voter question. Obama led by 17 about 10 days before the election and by 9 in their final NC poll. The party ID difference was about 17-18 points in favor of Democrats through the 2012 early voting period

Interesting. Those are encouraging numbers, then. Thanks for the info!

[JerryArkansas]

So % Dem lead in NV is down. I'm sorry, but I'm disappointed.

It basically parallels 2012 and that's all we need to win NV

Tony wants a 50 point win, anything less than that is bad, even if Hillary wins by a 2012 margin.

Are you aware that there's a Senate race in Nevada too?

Of course, and the candidate is one who is much better than what was nominated 4 years ago.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So % Dem lead in NV is down. I'm sorry, but I'm disappointed.

It basically parallels 2012 and that's all we need to win NV

Tony wants a 50 point win, anything less than that is bad, even if Hillary wins by a 2012 margin.

Are you aware that there's a Senate race in Nevada too?

Of course, and the candidate is one who is much better than what was nominated 4 years ago.

Sure, but the polls are a bit too close to feel comfortable. If NV turnout had been up a lot, we could have been able to call it for CCM.

[JerryArkansas]

So % Dem lead in NV is down. I'm sorry, but I'm disappointed.

It basically parallels 2012 and that's all we need to win NV

Tony wants a 50 point win, anything less than that is bad, even if Hillary wins by a 2012 margin.

Are you aware that there's a Senate race in Nevada too?

Of course, and the candidate is one who is much better than what was nominated 4 years ago.

Sure, but the polls are a bit too close to feel comfortable. If NV turnout had been up a lot, we could have been able to call it for CCM.

You don't call elections until the polls are closed.  You line of thinking is flawed.  And polls are starting to show her pulling away.

[psychprofessor]

So % Dem lead in NV is down. I'm sorry, but I'm disappointed.

It basically parallels 2012 and that's all we need to win NV

Tony wants a 50 point win, anything less than that is bad, even if Hillary wins by a 2012 margin.

Are you aware that there's a Senate race in Nevada too?

Of course, and the candidate is one who is much better than what was nominated 4 years ago.

Sure, but the polls are a bit too close to feel comfortable. If NV turnout had been up a lot, we could have been able to call it for CCM.

There is nothing alarming in the NV stats...Hillary is pulling the same out of Clark and overperforming by a little in Washoe. Ralston all but declared Trump toast when HRC's lead in Clark is larger than 60k. She is at 40k now with another week to go. Step back from the ledge.

Dems won Clark by 3,600 votes on Friday - raw vote lead 40K. Same as '12 but percentage lower because more voters. Detailed post coming.

[BoAtlantis]

Breakdown of early voting in each state

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/29/where-early-voting-hints-at-good-news-for-hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump/

[Brittain33]

So % Dem lead in NV is down. I'm sorry, but I'm disappointed.

Well, considering that this was a state where the educated/no-college-degree divide was going to smack Democrats, we should be grateful that increased turnout among other dimensions is enabling us to recreate the 2012 win.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So % Dem lead in NV is down. I'm sorry, but I'm disappointed.

Well, considering that this was a state where the educated/no-college-degree divide was going to smack Democrats, we should be grateful that increased turnout among other dimensions is enabling us to recreate the 2012 win.

Are there any racial/ethnic statistics of the NV early vote? I'd like to see if the Latino vote is showing any signs of improving.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Does anyone have any current thinking of Florida and Colorado?

[JerryArkansas]

Does anyone have any current thinking of Florida and Colorado?

Florida it is hard to get a read off of due to the large number of Absentee ballots being sent it, but on Monday we will have better idea due to souls to the polls

Colorado, Dems are doing better, as long as republicans don't get a lead of about 2% in the ballots.

[Speed of Sound]

Does anyone have any current thinking of Florida and Colorado?

What timing! Schale just posted his pre-weekend thoughts on FL.

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/29/florida-day-10-and-it-is-fsuclemson.html

[Dr. Arch]

Does anyone have any current thinking of Florida and Colorado?

What timing! Schale just posted his pre-weekend thoughts on FL.

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/29/florida-day-10-and-it-is-fsuclemson.html

Overall good news.