The absentee/early vote thread

[dspNY]

@RalstonReports  17s seconds ago

Turnout today in Clark County is going to be higher than Friday. 24,000 by 3 PM. It was 22,000 at same time Friday.



Any fear about turnout being down early in the day seems to have been unnecessary (...as usual).

Democratic base furious with Comey and taking it out on Comey and Trump. For reference, turnout on the same day in Clark was only 2000 higher, so we're looking to exceed 2012 at least on this metric

[Ebsy]

@RalstonReports  17s seconds ago

Turnout today in Clark County is going to be higher than Friday. 24,000 by 3 PM. It was 22,000 at same time Friday.



Any fear about turnout being down early in the day seems to have been unnecessary (...as usual).

Yeah, it's important not to read too much into Ralston's initial updates.

[Dr. Arch]

@RalstonReports  17s seconds ago

Turnout today in Clark County is going to be higher than Friday. 24,000 by 3 PM. It was 22,000 at same time Friday.



Any fear about turnout being down early in the day seems to have been unnecessary (...as usual).

Democratic base furious with Comey and taking it out on Comey and Trump. For reference, turnout on the same day in Clark was only 2000 higher, so we're looking to exceed 2012 at least on this metric

I was livid yesterday, and I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels insulted in the same way, and I'm not even a partisan voter.

[NOVA Green]

@RalstonReports  17s seconds ago

Turnout today in Clark County is going to be higher than Friday. 24,000 by 3 PM. It was 22,000 at same time Friday.



Any fear about turnout being down early in the day seems to have been unnecessary (...as usual).

Democratic base furious with Comey and taking it out on Comey and Trump. For reference, turnout on the same day in Clark was only 2000 higher, so we're looking to exceed 2012 at least on this metric

idk about the motivation of the increased total turnout today, it could just as easily be that it's a Saturday so a lot of M-F workers, college students, and offshift Casino workers find it easier to take the time to vote on a Saturday than during a normal weekday.

Still regardless, good news for Team Clinton and curious about the current D-R-NAP breakdown in Clark County after today's update in terms of both vote banking, as well as capturing 1st time voters....

[BoAtlantis]

Tom Bonier

"By this morning, over 1 million people will have voted in Ohio. Democrats have an 11% lead in modeled partisan vote share."

"15% of the OH vote thus far has come from people who did not vote in '12. That universe is +4% Dem. GOP is turning out likely voters."

[BoAtlantis]

Sorry for the long post but this is CNN's update with my truncated highlights.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/29/politics/early-voter-data/index.html?eref=mrss_igoogle_politics

Arizona

Registered Republicans took the lead in Arizona this week......But their advantage today is about half the size it was at this point in 2012. Republicans are currently ahead of Democrats by 34,000 votes, or 3.6% of the vote. At this point in 2012, Republicans were ahead by more than 62,000 votes, which translated to a 9.7% lead.

More than 915,000 people have already voted in Arizona, an increase from this time in 2012. About two-thirds of all votes in the Grand Canyon State were cast early in the last presidential election.

Colorado

Registered Democrats continue to lead Republicans in terms of turnout -- an edge they've maintained since ballots started being returned. They're up about 27,000 votes, which is a significant turnaround from this time in 2012, when Republicans were leading by about 19,000 votes.

In fact, 38% of all ballots returned have come from voters over 65, even though that age group was only 16% of the Colorado electorate in 2012.

Georgia

Georgia has crossed the 1 million mark in terms of ballots cast. More than 1,061,000 people have already hit the polls in the Peach State -- a spike of about 37% from this time in 2012.

Turnout among white voters rose by about 3%, while turnout among black voters is down by about 4.5%.

Florida

Republicans continue to lead Democrats in Florida early voting by a very slim margin. Registered Republicans are ahead by about 13,545 votes, a smaller lead than they had one week ago.
This is still a decent showing for the GOP -- it's preferable to be ahead than behind -- but they are still behind their pace from 2008, the last year that comparable data is available. At this point in 2008, registered Republicans had a 44,000-vote advantage, which meant they were ahead by about 2.8%.

Iowa

Democrats are winning the turnout battle, and are currently ahead of Republicans by about 39,000 votes. But that's a significant drop from their position at this point in 2012, when they led by 56,000. Democrats enjoyed a similar lead of about 50,000 votes at this point in 2008 as well.
Furthermore, the Democratic lead has been shrinking. They were up by 16% one week ago, but they're ahead by 10% today.

Nevada

The Democratic edge stands at about 26,000 votes. That's a good sign for Democrats up and down the ballot -- in addition to the presidential race, there are competitive Senate and House seats up for grabs. Earlier this week, Democrats were doing better than 2012. But according to the latest data, they are now slightly behind that pace: They're up by 8.8% today, but were ahead by 9.3% at this time in 2012.

North Carolina

The Democratic advantage in North Carolina's early voting continues, but may be slowing down. They're up by more than 186,000 votes, which gives them a 15% lead over registered Republicans. This is the smallest lead (as a percent of the vote) Democrats have seen since early voting began October 20.

Turnout among African American voters in has apparently dropped. So far, black voters are about 23% of the early voting electorate. That number was 29% at this point four years ago.

Ohio

Registered Republicans are up by about 39,000 votes, an improvement from their position in 2008.

About one-third of Ohioans voted early in 2012. That number is on track to be lower this year, a likely result of the Republican-led legislature scaling back the number of early voting days. That change was enacted in 2013 and is in effect for the first time in a presidential election this year.

[mark_twain]

Voted for Clinton in GA today!

Which county? Long line?

Gwinnett County

40 minute line...read a magazine in nice weather during that time!

[BoAtlantis]

Voted for Clinton in GA today!

Which county? Long line?

Gwinnett County

40 minute line...read a magazine in nice weather during that time!

Congrats! Lucky early voters....

[Landslide Lyndon]

Voted for Clinton in GA today!

Which county? Long line?

Gwinnett County

40 minute line...read a magazine in nice weather during that time!

Actually that's a vast improvement. Last week there were 3-4 hour lines there.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Voted for Clinton in GA today!

Which county? Long line?

Gwinnett County

40 minute line...read a magazine in nice weather during that time!

Actually that's a vast improvement. Last week there were 3-4 hour lines there.

They only had one early voting location to start with.  They have since opened seven additional locations (I believe they opened today, although I'm not certain of this.)

[OneJ]

25.5% of active voters of Florida have voted
Link: https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/10/29/an-electionsmith-exclusive-floridas-latest-party-raceethnicity-age-turnout-figures-as-of-this-morning/

Party Turnout
-29.4% of 4.5m active registered Republicans have voted.

-27.0% of 4.8m active registered Democrats have voted.

-17.6% of 3.0m active registered No Party Affiliates have voted.

Racial/Ethnic Turnout

-28.1% of 8.2m active registered Whites have voted.

-20.6% of 1.7m active registered Blacks have voted.

-21.4% of 2.0m active registered Hispanics have voted.

Age Turnout

-41% of the 4.5m voters 60 and older have voted.

-25.6% of the 3.3m voters 45-59 have voted.

-14.7% of the 2.3m voters 30-44 have voted.

-9.5% of the 2.0m voters 18-29 have voted.

[Gass3268]

25.5% of active voters of Florida have voted
Link: https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/10/29/an-electionsmith-exclusive-floridas-latest-party-raceethnicity-age-turnout-figures-as-of-this-morning/

Party Turnout
-29.4% of 4.5m active registered Republicans have voted.

-27.0% of 4.8m active registered Democrats have voted.

-17.6% of 3.0m active registered No Party Affiliates have voted.

Racial/Ethnic Turnout

-28.1% of 8.2m active registered Whites have voted.

-20.6% of 1.7m active registered Blacks have voted.

-21.4% of 2.0m active registered Hispanics have voted.

Age Turnout

-41% of the 4.5m voters 60 and older have voted.

-25.6% of the 3.3m voters 45-59 have voted.

-14.7% of the 2.3m voters 30-44 have voted.

-9.5% of the 2.0m voters 18-29 have voted.

Not bad for the first 5 days of early voting. If anyone is nervous about the ages, note that VBM is essentially designed for seniors. Will be interested to see how today went.

[Speed of Sound]

Today's voting did not change the Upshot NC tracker projection. Clinton's projected final vote share went up by .1%, still ~49-43.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/792545190976323584

[Maxwell]

So today's news wasn't that great?

[ApatheticAustrian]

So today's news wasn't that great?

since this is not a tally but a projection, it couldn't really change that much.

in fact, if it got worse, you should have worried....if it meets cohn's projections, hillary is winning.

[Speed of Sound]

So today's news wasn't that great?

I'd say it's more that the end of last week wasn't that great and we haven't really heard anything for today yet. Upshot's NC not moving sounds fine to me; it should have already been predicting what a weekend day would look like, so if the projection didn't move, we got the votes we expected to. They still see her winning NC by 6% after today's tallies. We're still waiting to hear out of FL, NV, etc., so far as I can tell, anyway.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Total votes in Volusia county as of Oct 29th:

101,372 (mail-in-vote and in person):

42,237 Republicans - 41.7%
38,023 Democrats - 37.5%
21,112 NPA/Other - 20.8%

total votes cast in 2012:

235,354

So 43.1% of my county residents have voted compared to 2012.

[Speed of Sound]

In-person registrations for this week in NC, per Michael McDonald. Looks young and like a lot is from recently hard swinging Wake County.

[ApatheticAustrian]

michael states it himself:

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[Mehmentum]

michael states it himself:

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Likely Sanders supporters.

[ApatheticAustrian]

translation:

NC dems won't have a biiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiig registrered voters lead but HRC is going to have more votes at the end according to upshot/electproject.

[dspNY]

Democrats win early voting in Washoe County by 18 votes today

3097-3079

https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

[Ebsy]

Democrats win early voting in Washoe County by 18 votes today

3097-3079

https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

These repeated victories in Washoe are a big deal.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Democrats win early voting in Washoe County by 18 votes today

3097-3079

https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

These repeated victories in Washoe are a big deal.

Didn't Dems win Washoe in 2012 already?

[dspNY]

Democrats win early voting in Washoe County by 18 votes today

3097-3079

https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

These repeated victories in Washoe are a big deal.

Didn't Dems win Washoe in 2012 already?

They went into week 2 with a narrower lead in Washoe in 2012