The absentee/early vote thread

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Democrats win early voting in Washoe County by 18 votes today

3097-3079

https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

These repeated victories in Washoe are a big deal.

Didn't Dems win Washoe in 2012 too?

Yes, by about 3.5% - but it's the key to NV. The Dems are in a stronger position than in 2012 and if the Dems win Washoe, they've won the state.

[dspNY]

Once again, taking NV off the table removes all win paths that do not include either PA or WI

[BoAtlantis]

Once again, taking NV off the table removes all win paths that do not include either PA or WI

If Trump has a chance to win any of Hillary's firewall state, it's actually NH imo (very independent-thinking, elastic state).

Even NH is extremely unlikely for him but if he does pull it off there, NV can substitute the loss.

[Dr. Arch]

Does http://www.electproject.org/early_2016 not update during the weekends? There have barely been any today except from a couple of states.

[Ozymandias]

Does http://www.electproject.org/early_2016 not update during the weekends? There have barely been any today except from a couple of states.

Just saw him tweet about how slow Georgia's automated updated system runs, so I think it's more a function of the various states not updating as much...

[Doimper]

Once again, taking NV off the table removes all win paths that do not include either PA or WI

If Trump has a chance to win any of Hillary's firewall state, it's actually NH imo (very independent-thinking, elastic state).

TN Volunteer is hurtling towards this thread at 300 mph

[Speed of Sound]

The new numbers for GA are in, though I haven't followed GA close enough to know if they're significant in any way.

[Ozymandias]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  2m2 minutes ago
More younger people voted in Georgia today, age 60+ -2.1 points from 46.5% to 44.4% of all early voters. Expect more this coming week

[Maxwell]

the gender gap is fascinating - it seems much larger than in previous years. Is that just an early vote thing or is that something new happening this election?

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/792576880360775680

"If past patterns hold, as Election Day approaches we should see more and more younger people voting early"

[NOVA Green]

I suspect we won't have a clear picture of EV numbers until we see the results from the "Souls to the Polls" as well as a surge of weekend numbers from states rolling from Texas to Ohio...

Meanwhile, Atlas will roll on and debate and discuss every infinitesimal movement in the numbers, but we will likely have a much better picture come EOB Monday....

Just sayin'

[Maxwell]

I suspect we won't have a clear picture of EV numbers until we see the results from the "Souls to the Polls" as well as a surge of weekend numbers from states rolling from Texas to Ohio...

Meanwhile, Atlas will roll on and debate and discuss every infinitesimal movement in the numbers, but we will likely have a much better picture come EOB Monday....

Just sayin'

fair enough - this is the first election I've really dug through early vote numbers so I don't really know what to look for.

[Speed of Sound]

I suspect we won't have a clear picture of EV numbers until we see the results from the "Souls to the Polls" as well as a surge of weekend numbers from states rolling from Texas to Ohio...

Meanwhile, Atlas will roll on and debate and discuss every infinitesimal movement in the numbers, but we will likely have a much better picture come EOB Monday....

Just sayin'

fair enough - this is the first election I've really dug through early vote numbers so I don't really know what to look for.

Same. Plus, the forum's been a graveyard today, so what else is there to do then ramble on with whatever we get? We're nerds without numbers today.

[Speed of Sound]

Good reminder from Nate Cohn about early voting:

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[ApatheticAustrian]

do not-registered UAF matter in any way?

they are part of the dem/rep-numbers anyway, not?

[Alcon]

do not-registered UAF matter in any way?

they are part of the dem/rep-numbers anyway, not?

Cohn is pointing out that there's a difference in how people are registered with the state, and how they identify themselves when a pollster calls.  I believe there are more voters who are registered as unaffiliated (because they didn't bother to pick a party) but then identify with their current lean when they are called.  My recollection (maybe I'm wrong) is that a lot of young people are registered unaffiliated, but identify as Democratic if asked.

[Speed of Sound]

do not-registered UAF matter in any way?

they are part of the dem/rep-numbers anyway, not?

Cohn is pointing out that there's a difference in how people are registered with the state, and how they identify themselves when a pollster calls.  I believe there are more voters who are registered as unaffiliated (because they didn't bother to enroll) but then identify with their current lean when they are called.  My recollection (maybe I'm wrong) is that a lot of young people are registered unaffiliated, but identify as Democratic.

Yep. And, OTOH, many current R's/conservatives are self-IDing as independents, even though they aren't registered as such. Both just point to a need for a different lens according to whether you're looking at EV data or poll #s.

[Alcon]

do not-registered UAF matter in any way?

they are part of the dem/rep-numbers anyway, not?

Cohn is pointing out that there's a difference in how people are registered with the state, and how they identify themselves when a pollster calls.  I believe there are more voters who are registered as unaffiliated (because they didn't bother to enroll) but then identify with their current lean when they are called.  My recollection (maybe I'm wrong) is that a lot of young people are registered unaffiliated, but identify as Democratic.

Yep. And, OTOH, many current R's/conservatives are self-IDing as independents, even though they aren't registered as such. Both just point to a need for a different lens according to whether you're looking at EV data or poll #s.

Yep!  This is the big problem with re-weighing to party ID.  Imagine both things are true.  You have young, independent-registered voters identifying as Democrats.  You also have Republican-registered voters identifying as independent, because they don't like the party.

That means your poll will show as having too many Democrats, and too few Republicans.  It also means your self-identified Independent sample is more Republican than actual, registered Independents.  That's because it's lacking a lot of Democratic-leaning Independents (those young voters who are IDing as Democrats), and includes a lot of registered Republicans (those registered Republicans identifying as Independents).

If this happens, your sample should be more Democratic, and less Republican, than registered voters.  Re-weighting to party ID will mess this up.  Also, because your self-IDed Independents are a lot more Republican than actual Independents, re-weighting to party ID will further skew the sample Republican.

(Sorry, I'm sure y'all know this, just my daily Bill Mitchell antidote)

[Speed of Sound]

Jon Ralston ‏2m ago

Dems won Clark by 4,000 today.

Dems – 14226

GOP – 10015

NP – 6829

About like 2012

Dems up about 44.000 in Clark now.

[Dr. Arch]

Jon Ralston ‏2m ago

Dems won Clark by 4,000 today.

Dems – 14226

GOP – 10015

NP – 6829

About like 2012

Dems up about 44.000 in Clark now.

Wonderful news.

[Ebsy]

IS EVERYONE READY FOR SOULS TO THE POLLS?!?!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Jon Ralston ‏2m ago

Dems won Clark by 4,000 today.

Dems – 14226

GOP – 10015

NP – 6829

About like 2012

Dems up about 44.000 in Clark now.

Wonderful news.

Sorry to be a broken record but... how does the % margin compare?

[NOVA Green]

IS EVERYONE READY FOR SOULS TO THE POLLS?!?!

PRAISE THE LORD!!!

HALLELUJAH!!!!

[Confused Democrat]

IS EVERYONE READY FOR SOULS TO THE POLLS?!?!

PRAISE THE LORD!!!

HALLELUJAH!!!!

[komodozer]

Wasn't "Souls to the Polls" proven to be a big bust?