The absentee/early vote thread

[HillOfANight]

Wow! And it's not even the weekend yet!

[ApatheticAustrian]

don't want to extrapolate such a small sample but ...the black marge in 08/12 was always seen like an outlier afaik and afro-americans "usually" have voted at lower numbers than non-hispanic whites......

i know that a whole lot of black americans live in georgia but...generally speaking....would be unrealistic if afro-americans are less motivated than non-hispanic white americans this time and still dominate early voting..wouldn't it?

[dspNY]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  53s54 seconds ago
In Georgia today 91,951 people voted. 31% were African-American, pushing the overall African-American early vote percentage from 19% to 27%

I think it's good. Not blowout numbers, but a very good start and could cause Clinton to make a full-court press at Georgia if these results continue

[HillOfANight]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/10/georgia-black-turnout-on-record-pace-147409

In 2012, the early vote was 33% black, and I think due to low election day turnout, was around 30% overall. Wouldn't be surprised to see black turnout down eventually (diehards out today).

But if we still see 30%+ 2 weeks from now, #BattlegroundGeorgia.

[The Other Castro]

ME-2 is looking pretty good again:

[dspNY]

Florida VBM numbers

Ballot requests not turned in:

GOP: 968,714
DEM: 936,567
IND: 446,354
Other: 57,713

Ballots cast:

DEM: 228,975
GOP: 228,625
IND: 84,625
Other: 15,171

We're seeing a pattern in the VBM numbers in several states where Democrats are returning their ballots at faster rates than Republicans. Perhaps some Republican voters are hesitant to vote for their candidate...

[MasterJedi]

Florida VBM numbers

Ballot requests not turned in:

GOP: 968,714
DEM: 936,567
IND: 446,354
Other: 57,713

Ballots cast:

DEM: 228,975
GOP: 228,625
IND: 84,625
Other: 15,171

We're seeing a pattern in the VBM numbers in several states where Democrats are returning their ballots at faster rates than Republicans. Perhaps some Republican voters are hesitant to vote for their candidate...

Like my parents, have had their ballot sitting there for a week. They say they hate Trump but talk him up all the time and how everything against him is lies. Hoping they just take too damn long and don't get them in in time, though that would hurt Rubio.

[Classic Conservative]

Updated Florida Numbers: Republicans Regain a Lead in Returned Ballots

Requested:

GOP: 940,566
Democrats: 919,720
Independent: 442,736
Other: 56,494

Returned:
GOP: 265,683
Democrats: 259,883
Independents: 96,880
Other: 17,457

[Tender Branson]

Interesting:

CO has 3.2 million active registered voters (all of which will be mailed a ballot in the next days).

But there are also 0.7 million inactive registered voters (and they won't be mailed a ballot).

An inactive registered voter is someone who got sent a letter by the state to send it back for confirmation that the address is still occupied, but who failed to return that letter. Most are probably students or people who moved away ...

Anyway, I guess the first ballots are returned by Thursday and we should get some updates on returned ballots by the weekend.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/ncs-2016-early-voting-turnout-through-17-october/#more-426
I found a new site and I'll follow @InsightUSOrg on twitter. They've been presenting the NC data in interesting ways. Here is returns by party/age.

[Hydera]

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/ncs-2016-early-voting-turnout-through-17-october/#more-426
I found a new site and I'll follow @InsightUSOrg on twitter. They've been presenting the NC data in interesting ways. Here is returns by party/age.

Wow a lot of Republicans who voted early in 2012 couldn't bring themselves to vote for Trump this time.

[Adam Griffin]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/10/georgia-black-turnout-on-record-pace-147409

In 2012, the early vote was 33% black, and I think due to low election day turnout, was around 30% overall. Wouldn't be surprised to see black turnout down eventually (diehards out today).

But if we still see 30%+ 2 weeks from now, #BattlegroundGeorgia.

The black share of the early vote in Georgia will continue to climb over the next 3 weeks, likely to the point that it will fool those who don't know the state into thinking there's going to be a huge black turnout. In 2014, for instance, the black share of the early vote crept up from the high-20s gradually through early voting and ultimately ended up around 35%. Unfortunately, that was due mainly to cannibalization of Election Day vote, as the final black share of the electorate was 29% in 2014.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 1,950,090 votes or 4.2% of the 2012 early vote.

[Dr. Arch]

Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 1,950,090 votes or 4.2% of the 2012 early vote.

Big spike from a couple of days ago.

[Gass3268]

Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 1,950,090 votes or 4.2% of the 2012 early vote.

Big spike from a couple of days ago.

A lot more states have started voting. All so very exciting!

[voter1993]

Are republicans still ahead in florida and nc?

[dspNY]

Are republicans still ahead in florida and nc?

Technically but they're far behind where they need to be to win those states. Trump is lagging Romney by about 3% in FL and much more than that in NC

[voter1993]

Can this take in account less democrats early voting then sending in mail in ballots instead? I guess we will find out when early voting begins

[dspNY]

Iowa early vote stats:

Ballots requested

DEM: 165,946
GOP: 137,002
IND: 79,058
Other: 999

Ballots returned

DEM: 98,428
GOP: 60,359
IND: 36,420
Other: 477

Dems about 29K ahead in ballot requests and 38K in ballots returned. They need to be 50K ahead to win Iowa

[BundouYMB]

Dems about 29K ahead in ballot requests and 38K in ballots returned. They need to be 50K ahead to win Iowa

Really? Because a). Obama won Iowa by 92K votes in 2012 and b). Democrats said they believe aggressive early vote efforts in 2014 (when early vote numbers looked amazing and Braley got thrashed) simply cannibalized their election day votes without actually adding to their overall vote totals.

Don't get me wrong, it's obviously better to have more votes banked but saying Democrats "need" to be 50K votes ahead to win doesn't add up and doesn't really make sense to me.

[Virginiá]

I don't understand - surely that huge absentee drop can't be entirely from a lack of organizing or anything, right? If it mostly just came from disillusioned Republicans, then that likely means that they will see a drop in in-person turnout as well.

If that were the case, isn't this very bad for NC Republicans? They could lose a lot if their turnout implodes while Democratic turnout edges up.

[voter1993]

Republicans are on par with Romney in Florida. Republicans up 2.2% in mailed in. Republicans had 3% lead correct?

[HillOfANight]

I don't understand - surely that huge absentee drop can't be entirely from a lack of organizing or anything, right? If it mostly just came from disillusioned Republicans, then that likely means that they will see a drop in in-person turnout as well.

If that were the case, isn't this very bad for NC Republicans? They could lose a lot if their turnout implodes while Democratic turnout edges up.

Yep, we will see how in person voting in NC looks starting Thursday. If the GOP does bad there over the next few weeks, reasonable to assume they'll do bad election day. It's not just Trump, but McCrory has tainted the GOP brand.

[Lolasknives]

NC will be a blue state before this is over. 2012 is the last time a white Rethug will ever tarnish it red.

[dspNY]

Early morning VBM update from Florida

Ballots requested and outstanding:

GOP: 900,138
DEM: 890,151
IND: 433,086
Other: 54,671

Ballots cast:

GOP: 316,400 (41.7%)
DEM: 305,626 (40.3%)
IND: 116,091 (15.3%)
Other: 20,303 (2.7%)

Combined:

GOP: 1,216,538 (40.1%)
DEM: 1,195,777 (39.4%)
IND: 549,177 (18.1%)
Other: 74,974 (2.5%)

Dems trail overall by 20,761 combined (ballot requests + votes)