The absentee/early vote thread

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/788906863140016128?lang=en

"Continued weakness for OH Dem ballot requests as of 10/18
Cuyahoga -22.3% from 2012
Franklin - 12.7%
47 other counties +0.4%"

Bad news for Hillary in OH

[dspNY]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/788906863140016128?lang=en

"Continued weakness for OH Dem ballot requests as of 10/18
Cuyahoga -22.3% from 2012
Franklin - 12.7%
47 other counties +0.4%"

Bad news for Hillary in OH

Franklin (Columbus) improving quite a bit but Cuyahoga (Cleveland) is underperforming a lot

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/788906863140016128?lang=en

"Continued weakness for OH Dem ballot requests as of 10/18
Cuyahoga -22.3% from 2012
Franklin - 12.7%
47 other counties +0.4%"

Bad news for Hillary in OH

Franklin (Columbus) improving quite a bit but Cuyahoga (Cleveland) is underperforming a lot

Yea it's sad. I gave up on OH.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

If Trump can't bring out the democratic base...Well, I don't know what would.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/788906863140016128?lang=en

"Continued weakness for OH Dem ballot requests as of 10/18
Cuyahoga -22.3% from 2012
Franklin - 12.7%
47 other counties +0.4%"

Bad news for Hillary in OH

Franklin (Columbus) improving quite a bit but Cuyahoga (Cleveland) is underperforming a lot

Yea it's sad. I gave up on OH.

Too early to give up.

[Gass3268]

In-person early vote starts today in North Carolina. Very interested to hear turnout reports!

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/789088055105884160


According to TargetSmart, Ohio was 57% Dem 30% GOP on 10/17, now 50% D 36% R

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/789088055105884160


According to TargetSmart, Ohio was 57% Dem 30% GOP on 10/17, now 50% D 36% R

Do we know what TargetSmart's number was in Ohio in 2012?

[HillOfANight]

They said they will post 2012 comparisons but haven't yet. They are a Democratic firm. They provide good data, but it seems like they are selectively posting good news for Dems.

[Gass3268]

Not going well for Trump in North Carolina:

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[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 3,285,741 votes or 7.1% of the 2012 early vote.

[dspNY]

Florida VBM data

Ballot requests outstanding

GOP: 857,310
DEM: 856,602
IND: 422,986
Other: 52,514

Ballots cast

GOP: 369,528 (41.7%)
DEM: 356,661 (40.2%)
IND: 136,863 (15.4%)
Other: 23,421 (2.6%)

The GOP is 12,867 ahead in ballots cast and 708 ballot requests ahead for an overall advantage of 13,575. The Republican VBM advantage continues to narrow

[dspNY]

Iowa absentee ballot statistics for 10/20

Ballots requested:

DEM: 182,064
GOP: 150,169
IND: 88,673
Other: 1,142

Ballots cast:

DEM: 114,737
GOP: 75,782
IND: 44,732
Other: 598

The Democratic edge in ballot requests is 31,895. This is an improvement of about 2,100 over yesterday. The Democratic edge in ballots cast is 38,955. This is an improvement of about 700 over yesterday. Democrats have 19 days to restore the 68.4K edge they created to win the state by almost 6 points in 2012.

[ApatheticAustrian]

if an edge of about 70k ballots is enough for a 6 point win......a really good GOTV-effort should make a smaller edge also viable.

[dspNY]

if an edge of about 70k ballots is enough for a 6 point win......a really good GOTV-effort should make a smaller edge also viable.

Iowa also has same-day voter registration which the Democrats have always used to bring younger voters to the polls

[Classic Conservative]

So as of 5:00 the total in NC on the first day of Early Voting is 137,000 votes down from 167,000 on the first day in 2012. But we are still 12 minutes away from poll closings.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NCSBE/status/789225125732376576

[dspNY]

So as of 5:00 the total in NC on the first day of Early Voting is 137,000 votes down from 167,000 on the first day in 2012. But we are still 12 minutes away from poll closings.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NCSBE/status/789225125732376576

Keep in mind that number might spike in the last hour as people try to vote after work. We'll see what the final total is

[Ozymandias]

Didn't some counties in NC make early voting harder this year?

Wasn't that one of the reasons for all the lawsuits?

[Gass3268]

Didn't some counties in NC make early voting harder this year?

Wasn't that one of the reasons for all the lawsuits?

Yeah, North Carolina has been on forefront of the voter supression movement.

[Ebsy]

So as of 5:00 the total in NC on the first day of Early Voting is 137,000 votes down from 167,000 on the first day in 2012. But we are still 12 minutes away from poll closings.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NCSBE/status/789225125732376576

Keep in mind that number might spike in the last hour as people try to vote after work. We'll see what the final total is

Weird that they haven't posted the final numbers. Guess they might be waiting on those 7 outstanding counties.

[Virginiá]

Didn't some counties in NC make early voting harder this year?

Wasn't that one of the reasons for all the lawsuits?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=241180.msg5327510#msg5327510

As I was saying in that, some of the cuts make no sense other than to suppress voting, given that the early voting hours/locations were different for the primary and only changed after the voter suppression law was struck down.

Anyway, for some of these counties, a lot more sites open up in the final 10 days of early voting, so cuts in some counties for the first 7 days isn't completely disastrous. I'm more worried about the flooded areas and whether or not displaced peoples there will end up voting, let alone piece their lives back together. Some of those places looked like they were in really bad shape.

Lord knows the state will not do anything to make voting easier for them. The NCGOP would put the polling places at the bottom of a lake if they could.

[dspNY]

Georgia early vote demographics (10/20)

White: 270,554 (62.5%)
African-American: 122,660 (28.4%)
Hispanic: 4,124 (1.0%)
Other: 7,058 (1.6%)
Unknown: 28,217 (6.5%)

[BoAtlantis]

http://plunderbund.com/2016/10/20/hillarys-vp-sen-tim-kaine-tells-ohioans-2016-election-in-the-palm-of-their-hands/

“Voter turnout in Franklin County, home to state capital Columbus, is robust with more than 9,300 votes cast in person in the first four days, a 80 percent boost over the same period in 2012. Democrats have invested heavily in vote by mail efforts, and that appears to be paying off. The five Ohio counties with the largest vote by mail requests so far are Cuyahoga [home to Cleveland], Franklin, Hamilton [home to Cincinnati], Montgomery [home to Dayton] and Summit. Together they account for more than 40 percent of current ballot requests across the entire state. These five counties are likely to go for Hillary Clinton by similar or larger margins than President Obama’s 2012 results.”

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 3,841,020 votes or 8.3% of the total 2012 early vote.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Indiana: Democrats leading the early voting surge according to survey

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http://wishtv.com/2016/10/20/democrats-leading-the-early-voting-surge-according-to-survey/

The democratic base is fired up! Hoping for a surprise!