The absentee/early vote thread

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Maine as of 10/20...Looks good for the democrats!

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 3,841,020 votes or 8.3% of the total 2012 early vote.

Do we know, how many voted in 2012 during the same period?

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.wpr.org/early-voting-strong-wisconsins-most-democratic-counties

MADISON — About 30 percent of all absentee ballots cast in Wisconsin so far have come from the state’s most heavily Democratic counties.

The latest data posted on the Wisconsin Elections Commission website shows ballots cast in Milwaukee and Dane counties are far outpacing those that have come from the conservative suburban counties of Washington, Waukesha and Ozaukee.

As of Wednesday, there were just over 55,000 ballots returned in Dane and Milwaukee counties compared with about 21,700 in the co-called WOW counties. About 183,700 were cast statewide.

[Adam Griffin]

Indiana: Democrats leading the early voting surge according to survey

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That's actually really pathetic. Does Indiana limit early voting, are these absentee mail ballots, or what?

Marion County has 900k people: my relatively tiny county of 100k - of which 15% are undocumented - has been averaging 800 voters per day this week with just one early voting location.

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/21/politics/early-voting-hillary-clinton-battleground-states/

Utah

Perhaps most surprisingly, Democrats improved their position in conservative and Mormon-heavy Utah, where recent polls have shown a tight race. At this point in 2012, Republicans led Democrats in early voting by more than 22,000 voters. But so far this year, the GOP advantage is only 3,509

Ohio and Iowa

The best news Trump is in Iowa. So far, 38,280 more Democrats than Republicans have voted. It's a narrower advantage than 2012, when Democrats outpaced GOP voters by 53,719 at this point.
The numbers are also significantly down in Ohio, where only 179,162 people have cast ballots, a 66% drop from this point in 2012. Democrats have a slight lead in the early balloting, but their lead is smaller than in 2012, and overall Democratic turnout dropped at a higher rate than it did for Republicans.

Virginia and Wisconsin

In Wisconsin, the number of early voters to date more than tripled, jumping from 46,389 to 142,190. In-person early voting started in late October four years ago. But after a federal court struck down Wisconsin's strict voting laws, early voting began several weeks earlier in the Badger State this year.
Virginia saw a smaller increase of 18,079 voters, compared to 2012. The state doesn't allow in-person early voting, but residents can still vote early by providing an excuse and receiving an absentee ballot.

Georgia

And in Republican-leaning Georgia, early voting is up by about 25% this year compared to 2012. That was clear Wednesday in Lawrenceville, where about 200 people lined up to vote in the county's only early voting location. Waiting times were two hours, officials said, and dragged longer in the afternoon.

[dspNY]

http://www.wpr.org/early-voting-strong-wisconsins-most-democratic-counties

MADISON — About 30 percent of all absentee ballots cast in Wisconsin so far have come from the state’s most heavily Democratic counties.

The latest data posted on the Wisconsin Elections Commission website shows ballots cast in Milwaukee and Dane counties are far outpacing those that have come from the conservative suburban counties of Washington, Waukesha and Ozaukee.

As of Wednesday, there were just over 55,000 ballots returned in Dane and Milwaukee counties compared with about 21,700 in the co-called WOW counties. About 183,700 were cast statewide.

Dane and Milwaukee Counties represented 26% of the overall Wisconsin vote in 2012 and currently represent 30% of the early vote. The WOW counties represented 12.3% of the Wisconsin vote in 2012 and currently represent 11.8% of the early vote. Not a severe drop off for the republicans but a nice rise for the democrats

[Gass3268]

North Carolina

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Gerry Cohen ‏@gercohen  26m
26 minutes ago
 
Raleigh, NC
Gerry Cohen Retweeted Michael McDonald
day 1 early vote subject to adjustment up tomorrow morning due to late reporting counties and later evening hours. 2012 totals were finals

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[BoAtlantis]

To follow up on Assembly,

[HillOfANight]

http://plunderbund.com/2016/10/20/hillarys-vp-sen-tim-kaine-tells-ohioans-2016-election-in-the-palm-of-their-hands/

“Voter turnout in Franklin County, home to state capital Columbus, is robust with more than 9,300 votes cast in person in the first four days, a 80 percent boost over the same period in 2012. Democrats have invested heavily in vote by mail efforts, and that appears to be paying off. The five Ohio counties with the largest vote by mail requests so far are Cuyahoga [home to Cleveland], Franklin, Hamilton [home to Cincinnati], Montgomery [home to Dayton] and Summit. Together they account for more than 40 percent of current ballot requests across the entire state. These five counties are likely to go for Hillary Clinton by similar or larger margins than President Obama’s 2012 results.”

That's nice, but I'm confused because @ElectProject says doom and gloom in Ohio, and CNN too.

[Doimper]

https://twitter.com/gercohen/status/789447592564359169

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[HillOfANight]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/21/in-several-key-states-the-early-vote-has-shifted-heavily-to-the-democrats-since-2012/

Democrats doing especially well compared to past years in Arizona/North Carolina/Florida.

[BoAtlantis]

Looking at it from this pov, it doesn't seem like a doom yet for Democrats in Iowa.

[BoAtlantis]

We need more time to observe but what a weird trend in OH right now.

[HillOfANight]

It's explained that Ohio GOP cut back early voting.

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[BoAtlantis]

It's explained that Ohio GOP cut back early voting.

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Ah, that explains the lag. Thanks!

[Gass3268]

http://plunderbund.com/2016/10/20/hillarys-vp-sen-tim-kaine-tells-ohioans-2016-election-in-the-palm-of-their-hands/

“Voter turnout in Franklin County, home to state capital Columbus, is robust with more than 9,300 votes cast in person in the first four days, a 80 percent boost over the same period in 2012. Democrats have invested heavily in vote by mail efforts, and that appears to be paying off. The five Ohio counties with the largest vote by mail requests so far are Cuyahoga [home to Cleveland], Franklin, Hamilton [home to Cincinnati], Montgomery [home to Dayton] and Summit. Together they account for more than 40 percent of current ballot requests across the entire state. These five counties are likely to go for Hillary Clinton by similar or larger margins than President Obama’s 2012 results.”

That's nice, but I'm confused because @ElectProject says doom and gloom in Ohio, and CNN too.

There is no way to confirm it, but there has been some rumbling that turnout is down in the Republican areas of Cuyahoga and Franklin counties.

[ApatheticAustrian]

in the surface it looks like dems are up everwhere besides OH/IA.

[BoAtlantis]

http://plunderbund.com/2016/10/20/hillarys-vp-sen-tim-kaine-tells-ohioans-2016-election-in-the-palm-of-their-hands/

“Voter turnout in Franklin County, home to state capital Columbus, is robust with more than 9,300 votes cast in person in the first four days, a 80 percent boost over the same period in 2012. Democrats have invested heavily in vote by mail efforts, and that appears to be paying off. The five Ohio counties with the largest vote by mail requests so far are Cuyahoga [home to Cleveland], Franklin, Hamilton [home to Cincinnati], Montgomery [home to Dayton] and Summit. Together they account for more than 40 percent of current ballot requests across the entire state. These five counties are likely to go for Hillary Clinton by similar or larger margins than President Obama’s 2012 results.”

That's nice, but I'm confused because @ElectProject says doom and gloom in Ohio, and CNN too.

There is no way to confirm it, but there has been some rumbling that turnout is down in the Republican areas of Cuyahoga and Franklin counties.

True, it could mean Republicans in those counties are dragging down it down much more while Democrats are not lagging too badly. Obama held on to OH despite declining absentee ballot requests in Cuyahoga and Franklin from 2008 to 2012.

I can only hope massive new voters, who skew young and tend to vote in-person rather than through absentee, are the reasons why absentee requests are down in those areas.

[Virginiá]

https://thinkprogress.org/north-carolina-counties-that-slashed-early-voting-sites-see-hours-long-lines-fcffa0151748#.18q2h5p92

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This is what happens when you cut early voting for partisan gain. Removing the straight-ticket option at the same time seems to be exacerbating the lines as well, as many voters now have to fill out everything individually instead of just 2 boxes like before.

Can't wait until Cooper boots McCrory out of office and thus Republicans lose control of early voting plans in 2018-2020.

[ApatheticAustrian]

since there hasn't been a surge of non-registered hispanics vote this year, i guess this is more about registered republican latinos either switching registration.

[PresidentTRUMP]

I could be wrong, but i was under the assumption from previous elections that early voting usually was prodmitally an advantage for the democrat nominee as most of those votes went to that candidate.

If thats true, anywhere early voting is down compared to 2008 and 2012 is probably a good thing for republicans as there base typically votes more aggressively on the actual election day.

[Dr. Arch]

I could be wrong, but i was under the assumption from previous elections that early voting usually was prodmitally an advantage for the democrat nominee as most of those votes went to that candidate.

If thats true, anywhere early voting is down compared to 2008 and 2012 is probably a good thing for republicans as there base typically votes more aggressively on the actual election day.

Depends on the state. In NC and FL, for instance, that has definitely not been the case. Republican ballots are massively down for them this year, while Democrat ones are slightly or significantly up.

[BoAtlantis]

So as of 5:00 the total in NC on the first day of Early Voting is 137,000 votes down from 167,000 on the first day in 2012. But we are still 12 minutes away from poll closings.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NCSBE/status/789225125732376576

137k number was because 7 counties weren't reporting.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NCSBE/status/789490910732099584

To follow up,

"In NC, 164,207 early votes cast on 1st day Thursday. In 2012, 166,943 votes on first day of early voting."

[ApatheticAustrian]

great results, regarding the bigger problems with voting this time.

enthusiasm seems to be up,

[Hydera]