The absentee/early vote thread

[ApatheticAustrian]

virginia was never competetive this cycle.

but it points out that some polls are obviously correct.

[Speed of Sound]

That's great news to start the day. VA is a lock.

[The Other Castro]

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
Gotta be pretty darn happy w these numbers if you're HRC
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
The first day of in-person early voting in North Carolina:
Dem 52.7, Rep 24.3
White 67, Black 27.8
Female 55.1, Male 43.5

[Dr. Arch]

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
Gotta be pretty darn happy w these numbers if you're HRC
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
The first day of in-person early voting in North Carolina:
Dem 52.7, Rep 24.3
White 67, Black 27.8
Female 55.1, Male 43.5

Great news!

[ApatheticAustrian]

only question reamining would be if...as sean trende says 10 times each day....there are more dem voters this time or they are just sooo motivated that they are "cannibalizing" their election day vote.

[Ozymandias]

Mr. Nevada, Jon Ralston, is doing a live blog on the first day of in-person early voting in Nevada.

Ralston states:

"Republicans have about a 9 percent lead statewide in mail ballots returned, about the same as 2012. The Democrats here don’t put much effort into absentees, which made up 7 percent of the total ballots in 2012, and focus much more on driving early voting turnout."

Which I found surprising because according to http://www.electproject.org/early_2016, of the ~1M total votes cast in NV in 2012, about ~700K were "Advance" (= Absentee by mail + Early in person), which means the vast majority of Advance votes are Early in person.

So I looked it up at http://www.nvsos.gov/silverstate2012gen/vote-turnout/, and sure enough:

Active Registered Voters   1,258,409           
Election Day Turnout   311,613 (24.76%)           
Early Turnout   619,381 (49.21%)           
Absentee Turnout   85,670 (6.80%)           
Total Turnout   1,016,664 (80.77%)

I think Ralston misstated the numbers slightly, because the percentages are expressed as a function of total RV, not actual turnout, but the basic conclusion is the same: Early votes will dwarf Absentee votes in Nevada...

[republicanx]

reps ahead by about 5% in florida as of today.

[The Other Castro]

Helpful charts from Pew:



                               

[Landslide Lyndon]

Isn't California transitioning into an all-mail system too?

[Crumpets]

only question reamining would be if...as sean trende says 10 times each day....there are more dem voters this time or they are just sooo motivated that they are "cannibalizing" their election day vote.

Fortunately, even if it is just "cannibalizing" the election day vote, it is ensuring that the people who might be turned away from hours-long lines get multiple chances, and I'm guessing a lot of the unable-to-vote demographic in states like Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina are Democrats.

[dspNY]

reps ahead by about 5% in florida as of today.

They were ahead by 5.5% at this time in 2012 in VBM. They are ahead by 1.8% now. Obama won FL by 0.8%. If anything, that proves the polling showing Clinton +4 because the early vote in person will create the winning margin for her

[ApatheticAustrian]

it is going to be interesting to see if the increased number of registered republicans (mostly due to "dead" or switched voters, the dems have once again registered more new voters than the republicans), are going to make a difference in PA/FL...or if those voters have been voting republican all along.

[Speed of Sound]

It's very soothing to see the positivity of the polling (generally) playing out in early voting so far. Thanks to everyone who has been gathering and translating the data, this part certainly isn't my strong suit.

[Holmes]

Isn't California transitioning into an all-mail system too?

As far as I know, no. Everyone I know here votes by mail but there's still a sizeable amount of voters that go to the polls on election day.

[psychprofessor]

only question reamining would be if...as sean trende says 10 times each day....there are more dem voters this time or they are just sooo motivated that they are "cannibalizing" their election day vote.

Fortunately, even if it is just "cannibalizing" the election day vote, it is ensuring that the people who might be turned away from hours-long lines get multiple chances, and I'm guessing a lot of the unable-to-vote demographic in states like Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina are Democrats.

I also think Mook's strategy is to use early voting as a way to reach soft Hillary supporters. The committed one's will vote no matter what, but team HRC seems to be making a concerted effort to get the soft supporters over to early vote to ensure they are captured.

[Speed of Sound]

only question reamining would be if...as sean trende says 10 times each day....there are more dem voters this time or they are just sooo motivated that they are "cannibalizing" their election day vote.

Fortunately, even if it is just "cannibalizing" the election day vote, it is ensuring that the people who might be turned away from hours-long lines get multiple chances, and I'm guessing a lot of the unable-to-vote demographic in states like Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina are Democrats.

I also think Mook's strategy is to use early voting as a way to reach soft Hillary supporters. The committed one's will vote no matter what, but team HRC seems to be making a concerted effort to get the soft supporters over to early vote to ensure they are captured.

Also catches them while the polls are definitely in your favor. Smart.

[Ozymandias]

Isn't California transitioning into an all-mail system too?

As far as I know, no. Everyone I know here votes by mail but there's still a sizeable amount of voters that go to the polls on election day.

California just passed the new law (which applies to future elections)-- which automatically sends every registered voter a mail ballot and also creates "voting centers" (where you can vote early or drop off mail ballots) that would replace polling places-- a few weeks ago:

http://www.sos.ca.gov/administration/news-releases-and-advisories/2016-news-releases-and-advisories/governor-brown-signs-landmark-election-reform-bill/

Some counties can choose to implement the new system in 2018, and the rest have that option in 2020.

[The Other Castro]

Frank Luntz ‏@FrankLuntz  31m31 minutes ago
Early vote returns in FLORIDA so far

• Democrats:  305,700 in 2016 (111,471 in 2008)
• Republicans: 314,301 in 2016 (176,855 in 2008)

[republicanx]

Frank Luntz ‏@FrankLuntz  31m31 minutes ago
Early vote returns in FLORIDA so far

• Democrats:  305,700 in 2016 (111,471 in 2008)
• Republicans: 314,301 in 2016 (176,855 in 2008)

I'm more curious about 2012

[dspNY]

Frank Luntz ‏@FrankLuntz  31m31 minutes ago
Early vote returns in FLORIDA so far

• Democrats:  305,700 in 2016 (111,471 in 2008)
• Republicans: 314,301 in 2016 (176,855 in 2008)

I'm more curious about 2012

GOP was up by about 5.5 points at this time in 2012 in VBM

[republicanx]

Frank Luntz ‏@FrankLuntz  31m31 minutes ago
Early vote returns in FLORIDA so far

• Democrats:  305,700 in 2016 (111,471 in 2008)
• Republicans: 314,301 in 2016 (176,855 in 2008)

I'm more curious about 2012

GOP was up by about 5.5 points at this time in 2012 in VBM

yup down from 2012 at 3% spread, but electproject has the spread at 5% so more inline with 2012.

[BoAtlantis]

Frank Luntz ‏@FrankLuntz  31m31 minutes ago
Early vote returns in FLORIDA so far

• Democrats:  305,700 in 2016 (111,471 in 2008)
• Republicans: 314,301 in 2016 (176,855 in 2008)

I'm more curious about 2012

GOP was up by about 5.5 points at this time in 2012 in VBM

yup down from 2012 at 3% spread, but electproject has the spread at 5% so more inline with 2012.

They are supposed to be up bigger considering this.

"In Florida, the state implemented a 2012 law that makes an absentee ballot request good for all elections through the calendar year of the second ensuing general election. Effectively, anyone requesting a mail ballot in 2014 or since was automatically added to the list of ballot requests for the November 8, 2016 election. This policy was unavailable prior to 2012, so it is impossible to make a reliable comparison to 2012."

[ApatheticAustrian]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/789901835066716160



Guilford: Had 21,560 in-person votes on first two days of early voting in 2012; 3,295 in 2016 (-85%). Reduced polling places from 16 to 1

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/789902702889140224

[dspNY]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/789901835066716160



Guilford: Had 21,560 in-person votes on first two days of early voting in 2012; 3,295 in 2016 (-85%). Reduced polling places from 16 to 1

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/789902702889140224

Mecklenburg (Charlotte) still had almost the exact same turnout as 2012 despite 12 fewer polling places. That's astonishing and bodes well

[ApatheticAustrian]

before anyone notices it....dspNY is right but the first pic misstated the numbers of polling places. i updated the pic.