The absentee/early vote thread

[ApatheticAustrian]

well, how long does it usually take until the dems lead in florida?

[HillOfANight]

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/

North Carolina

With 385,000 ballots now cast, turnout remains below 2012’s pace, but not by much (95% of 2012’s rate for the corresponding period). That’s a very substantial change from the 81% we reported on October 20th, just before Early Voting began.

Turnout is down not surprisingly in 28 counties that have restricted early voting, but in normal counties, it's up across all parties, especially unaffiliateds.



A warning sign for Clinton, black turnout is 75% of what it was in 2012, compared to 102% among whites. It does mention that this Sunday's souls to the polls could alleviate that.

[Holmes]

well, how long does it usually take until the dems lead in florida?

By tomorrow evening when early voting ends for the day.

[Gass3268]

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/

North Carolina

With 385,000 ballots now cast, turnout remains below 2012’s pace, but not by much (95% of 2012’s rate for the corresponding period). That’s a very substantial change from the 81% we reported on October 20th, just before Early Voting began.

Turnout is down not surprisingly in 28 counties that have restricted early voting, but in normal counties, it's up across all parties, especially unaffiliateds.



A warning sign for Clinton, black turnout is 75% of what it was in 2012, compared to 102% among whites. It does mention that this Sunday's souls to the polls could alleviate that.

Many of the restricted early voting counties are heavily black, so it's not shocking their turnout is down.

[Ebsy]

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/

North Carolina

With 385,000 ballots now cast, turnout remains below 2012’s pace, but not by much (95% of 2012’s rate for the corresponding period). That’s a very substantial change from the 81% we reported on October 20th, just before Early Voting began.

Turnout is down not surprisingly in 28 counties that have restricted early voting, but in normal counties, it's up across all parties, especially unaffiliateds.



A warning sign for Clinton, black turnout is 75% of what it was in 2012, compared to 102% among whites. It does mention that this Sunday's souls to the polls could alleviate that.

Not seeing why Clinton should be concerned if Democrats are doing much better than 2012 (compared to GOP) with a whiter electorate. I suppose we will see how souls to the polls impacts African American turnout.

[HillOfANight]

Is there a way to know how many white Democrats will vote Clinton?
https://enr.ncsbe.gov/voter_stats/results.aspx?date=10-22-2016
39% of all voters are Democrats, 30% are Republicans, yet the presidential races have been tight... Polls usually break out results by party ID, not registration.

[Ozymandias]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  3m3 minutes ago
My weekly roundup of early voting activity for the past week. Enjoy!

"Early Voting: The Election Is Being Held Today"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-the-election_b_12614284.html

[Ebsy]

@RalstonReports
30,220 people had voted in Clark by 6 PM today. Was 26,000 on second day in 2012.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

@RalstonReports
30,220 people had voted in Clark by 6 PM today. Was 26,000 on second day in 2012.

Yikes. So, low turnout election eh?

[Ebsy]

So consensus is NV and VA are looking great for Clinton, IA and OH looking poor and NC and GA are ambiguous?

North Carolina is looking very good, Georgia is hard to say because of oddities with the racial data.

[Dr. Arch]

So consensus is NV and VA are looking great for Clinton, IA and OH looking poor and NC and GA are ambiguous?

North Carolina is looking very good, Georgia is hard to say because of oddities with the racial data.

And the reduction of polling places @GA in D areas

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

How is Florida looking?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So consensus is NV and VA are looking great for Clinton, IA and OH looking poor and NC and GA are ambiguous?

No. NV/VA looking great, OH it's too early but it's improved, IA is still weaker than it should be and NC and GA are impacted by other factors so cannot easily compare to 2012, although NC is still looking strong.

[Dr. Arch]

How is Florida looking?

Early voting starts tomorrow, but with mail-in ballots, marginally better for HRC than it was for Obama in 2012, which is good.

[Landslide Lyndon]

daniel a. smith
‏@electionsmith

Absentee ballots cast in 2012 GE at this time, 80% by Whites, 9% by Hispanics, 8% by blacks.
Thru 10/22/2016, the %s are:

76% W
12% H
8% B

[Gass3268]

108,000 people registered to vote during the extra week granted in Florida

[JerryArkansas]

Early voting breaking out across the country today.  Wonder how many are going to take advantage of it.  Know I am here in Arkansas.

[Gass3268]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[psychprofessor]

more good florida dem news:

Adam Smith
Adam Smith – Verified account ‏@adamsmithtimes

1.2 mil Floridians have voted by mail: 504k Reps, 483k Dems, 220k others. GOP had 5 point mail advantage at this point in 12. Today, 1.7

[dspNY]

daniel a. smith
‏@electionsmith

Absentee ballots cast in 2012 GE at this time, 80% by Whites, 9% by Hispanics, 8% by blacks.
Thru 10/22/2016, the %s are:

76% W
12% H
8% B

That number is for Florida so it indicates an improvement for Dems over 2012. Interesting to see how the early in-person vote breaks out

[Speed of Sound]

Just voted on campus at UT-Austin! My anecdote is particularly useless since I can't compare it to a previous prez election here, but I think it looked decently, if not overwhelmingly, busy. For 8:30 am on day one, I would guess 25 other people were voting there at the same time as me, and the stream was staying steady.

[psychprofessor]

Just voted on campus at UT-Austin! My anecdote is particularly useless since I can't compare it to a previous prez election here, but I think it looked decently, if not overwhelmingly, busy. For 8:30 am on day one, I would guess 25 other people were voting there at the same time as me, and the stream was staying steady.

battleground texas

[Kushahontas]

Just voted on campus at UT-Austin! My anecdote is particularly useless since I can't compare it to a previous prez election here, but I think it looked decently, if not overwhelmingly, busy. For 8:30 am on day one, I would guess 25 other people were voting there at the same time as me, and the stream was staying steady.

battleground texas

addt'l TX anecdote: voted this morning in NW San Antonio. Suburban polling site in whiter-than-average Dem-leaning neighborhood. 40 people in line. 30~ of them broke out into a "Trump" chant -- delusional. SAD!

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/790577926819442688

In first four hours of early voting in bellwether Hillsborough County, FL, Dems have a 49-35% lead in voters.  #enthusiasmgap

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/790577513235881984

In conservative Duval County, FL, the GOP was +3,000 in VBM ballots over two weeks of voting.  In 4 hours of Early Vote, Dems are up 500.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/790577926819442688

In first four hours of early voting in bellwether Hillsborough County, FL, Dems have a 49-35% lead in voters.  #enthusiasmgap

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/790577513235881984

In conservative Duval County, FL, the GOP was +3,000 in VBM ballots over two weeks of voting.  In 4 hours of Early Vote, Dems are up 500.

If Duval is close the race is over in Florida and thus the nation.