The absentee/early vote thread

[ApatheticAustrian]

i don't know why but afro-americans have been some of hillary's biggest fans early this cycle.....so i won't worry about that.

hispanics are a much harder lift usually.

[ApatheticAustrian]

which dat points would lead to that assumption? north carolina wouldn't be a good talking point.

otherwise...this year all "races" seem to surge.

[Mehmentum]

I'm not particularly worried about the decline of African American turnout in NC.  Siena and PPP both show Clinton with a 25 point lead with people who've already voted, a 10 point improvement over what polls found in 2012 for early voters.

[Mike88]

8,285,978 voters have already mail in or cast a ballot!

[Gass3268]

More from Steve Schale:

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My guess is if the numbers are similar today as they were yesterday, Democrats could take the lead today.

[OneJ]

Utah Early Voting
"In early Utah turnout, a third more Democrats than expected have voted."

"About a third more Utah Democrats have voted so far than normally would be expected in early turnout for by-mail voting — while fewer-than-predicted Republicans are casting ballots."

"Through Monday afternoon, he noted that about 82,000 Utahns have cast ballots in the 21 of 29 counties now conducting the election by mail. More than 67,000 of those votes have come in Salt Lake County."

"And 42 percent of Salt Lake County voters are Republicans, but they have cast 36 percent of the vote."

Link for full article: http://www.sltrib.com/news/4502030-155/in-early-utah-turnout-twice-as

#BattlegroundUtah

[Dr. Arch]

Utah Early Voting
"In early Utah turnout, a third more Democrats than expected have voted."

"About a third more Utah Democrats have voted so far than normally would be expected in early turnout for by-mail voting — while fewer-than-predicted Republicans are casting ballots."

"Through Monday afternoon, he noted that about 82,000 Utahns have cast ballots in the 21 of 29 counties now conducting the election by mail. More than 67,000 of those votes have come in Salt Lake County."

"And 42 percent of Salt Lake County voters are Republicans, but they have cast 36 percent of the vote."

Link for full article: http://www.sltrib.com/news/4502030-155/in-early-utah-turnout-twice-as

#BattlegroundUtah

Could HRC really pick it up!?

[Lief 🗽]

Meh, I'm sure a big factor in Utah is Mormon Republicans holding on to their ballot to decide if they should vote for McMuffin or Trump.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Tweetstorm from Colorado.

@CraigHughesinCO 

Mini tweetstorm on early Colorado returns. Numbers are staggering. D's now +8.2% of 290,000 so this is not small sample size 1/5 #copolitics

15% of those who have voted so far in CO have NO vote history. That is a huge number for this early.  2/5

At this point in 2012 there was a 6% R advantage, so this is a 14% swing right now. And consistent across all demographics 3/5

There is no one reason i.e. Denver reporting quicker than El Paso or Douglas.  The county numbers are in line historically 4/5

Fully expect R surge but right now clear that R's are holding their ballots...and there is no GOP presidential field. 5/5

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Utah Early Voting
"In early Utah turnout, a third more Democrats than expected have voted."

"About a third more Utah Democrats have voted so far than normally would be expected in early turnout for by-mail voting — while fewer-than-predicted Republicans are casting ballots."

"Through Monday afternoon, he noted that about 82,000 Utahns have cast ballots in the 21 of 29 counties now conducting the election by mail. More than 67,000 of those votes have come in Salt Lake County."

"And 42 percent of Salt Lake County voters are Republicans, but they have cast 36 percent of the vote."

Link for full article: http://www.sltrib.com/news/4502030-155/in-early-utah-turnout-twice-as

#BattlegroundUtah

unfortunately this won't be nearly enough to put snow over the top

[MasterJedi]

Green Bay City Clerk Wanted to Block Early Voting at UW-GB Because She Thought it Would Favor Dems[\url]

[Person Man]

Green Bay City Clerk Wanted to Block Early Voting at UW-GB Because She Thought it Would Favor Dems[\url]

Well, there are people trying to rig the election. But its not dead minorities committing fraud...

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/790734852152778753

"6.35% of absentee ballots cast in FL coming from millennials. 50% are Dem, 31% are GOP."

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/790733440060710912

"Enthusiasm gap in FL? 1.2MM absentee votes cast thus far- 12.2% of Dem AV voting in their first general election, compared to 9.4% of GOP AV"

[Dr. Arch]

My friend and his family (who moved to FL a year ago) received their mail-in ballots today, and they're sending them in as we speak, full D ballots.

[Lief 🗽]

Green Bay City Clerk Wanted to Block Early Voting at UW-GB Because She Thought it Would Favor Dems[\url]

Good thing transparency champion and alleged rapist Assange is too busy publishing risotto recipes to expose actual corruption and illegal activity like this.

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/790876709709053956

"Still not sure why media is reporting OH early vote as favoring Trump. Seeing an 11% modeled party D advantage. 7% are first time voters."

"That's ballot request data though, ballots automatically went out to '12/'14 voters. Return data better, still lagging in Cle/Col...........

"Well, in Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties, yes. But seeing uptick in smaller Dem counties (Mahoning, Trumbull, Athens)."

OH curtailed early voting days by 7 days but they also sent out AB mails automatically to 2012/2014 voters? Can any Ohioan confirm this?

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald
‏@ElectProject
Texas early voting (mail and in-person): 575,941 yesterday, up 52% from 2012 at same day
http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/index.shtml

[PresidentTRUMP]

Call me crazy as i know this forum will obviously....but if first time voters is WAY up regardless of what party they may have registered with, I would be very very happy to hear that if i were trump.

[Dr. Arch]

Call me crazy as i know this forum will obviously....but if first time voters is WAY up regardless of what party they may have registered with, I would be very very happy to hear that if i were trump.

lol

[Ronnie]

Call me crazy as i know this forum will obviously....but if first time voters is WAY up regardless of what party they may have registered with, I would be very very happy to hear that if i were trump.

...What?

[Dr. Arch]

Call me crazy as i know this forum will obviously....but if first time voters is WAY up regardless of what party they may have registered with, I would be very very happy to hear that if i were trump.

...What?

He thinks first-time D voters are coming out for Trump just as much as first-time R voters.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Yes, first time voters regardless if they registered D or R 20 or more years ago is a strong PLUS for Trump. These people who didn't turn out for Obama are def. the ones who are interested in voting for the first time ever for Hillary. I'll say it again regardless of which party they registered with 20+ years ago, if first time voters is up, that is a good thing for Trump, just as we saw during the primaries.

[MasterJedi]

Yes, first time voters regardless if they registered D or R 20 or more years ago is a strong PLUS for Trump. These people who didn't turn out for Obama are def. the ones who are interested in voting for the first time ever for Hillary. I'll say it again regardless of which party they registered with 20+ years ago, if first time voters is up, that is a good thing for Trump, just as we saw during the primaries.

Yes, except these are first time voters, meaning they're registering as a Democrat or a Republican this year for the first time and voting. Clear Clinton advantage.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Yes, first time voters regardless if they registered D or R 20 or more years ago is a strong PLUS for Trump. These people who didn't turn out for Obama are def. the ones who are interested in voting for the first time ever for Hillary. I'll say it again regardless of which party they registered with 20+ years ago, if first time voters is up, that is a good thing for Trump, just as we saw during the primaries.

Yes, except these are first time voters, meaning they're registering as a Democrat or a Republican this year for the first time and voting. Clear Clinton advantage.

Oh well, if its new voters just eligible to vote that are being considered new voters than yes without question HUGE advantage Clinton, elections over.

If its eligible voters for over 20+ years that are voting for the first time but check if they are a D or R when they vote i still say advantage Trump. Trump isn't a "republican" in most peoples eyes, hes more of an independent that the left calls crazy and the people who like him call the change needed desperately in Washington.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

   

    Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 9,436,782 or 20.4% of the 2012 early vote.