The absentee/early vote thread

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Raw numbers, please?

They haven't changed since this post ↓↓↓

Total:
DEM    14006
REP     13169
UNA    10520
LIB         120

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/774245192467480577
Is there a way to track daily stats by demographics?

9/9/16, Michael said

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which seems like a huge Dem lead (ignoring the close voter registration), so it's either out of context, or not really that great historically?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/774245192467480577
Is there a way to track daily stats by demographics?

Yes, https://dl.ncsbe.gov.s3.amazonaws.com/ENRS/absentee11xx08xx2016.zip

which seems like a huge Dem lead

Why?

[HillOfANight]

Oops, never bothered to open the file. I thought I read on his feed 80% of early ballots were Black, I was dyslexic.

By gender, I see 22.8K female ballots (57%) and 16.6k male ballots (41%). Hope I didn't butcher that number.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Total requested ballots (compared to 09/13):
DEM                    15682 (+897)
REP                     14873 (+872)
UNA                    11839 (+680)
LIB                          138 (+  11)

Total returned and accepted ballots (compared to 09/13):
DEM                       163 (+83)
REP                          92 (+47)
UNA                         81 (+35)
LIB                             2 (+  1)

[Gass3268]

Total requested ballots (compared to 09/13):
DEM                    15682 (+897)
REP                     14873 (+872)
UNA                    11839 (+680)
LIB                          138 (+  11)

Total returned and accepted ballots (compared to 09/13):
DEM                       163 (+83)
REP                          92 (+47)
UNA                         81 (+35)
LIB                             2 (+  1)

50% increase for the Libertarians!!

[JerryArkansas]

Not looking too bad with the Absentee's from North Carolina.  Real test is the early voting in the state, not these.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Total requested ballots (compared to morning 09/14):
DEM                    16629 (+  947)
REP                     15886 (+1013)
UNA                    12685 (+  846)
LIB                         145 (+     7)

Total returned and accepted ballots (compared to morning 09/14):
DEM                       257 (+94)
REP                        154 (+62)
UNA                       131 (+50)
LIB                            3 (+  1)
[/quote]

[The Other Castro]

Early surge in absentee requests from Youngstown, Ohio.

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http://www.vindy.com/news/2016/sep/15/requests-to-vote-by-mail-surge-above--le/?mobile

[Dr. Arch]

Early surge in absentee requests from Youngstown, Ohio.

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http://www.vindy.com/news/2016/sep/15/requests-to-vote-by-mail-surge-above--le/?mobile

Hopefully a good sign.

[KingSweden]

Early surge in absentee requests from Youngstown, Ohio.

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http://www.vindy.com/news/2016/sep/15/requests-to-vote-by-mail-surge-above--le/?mobile

Hopefully a good sign.

I wouldn't be so sure. This is an area I expect to swing to Trump (though I think Clinton will very narrowly carry Mahoning)

[jman123]

This could be a Trump surge

[Gass3268]

Isn't the City of Youngstown itself pretty black?

[Cruzcrew]

Isn't the City of Youngstown itself pretty black?

Yep the black and white population there is pretty equal at roughly 45%.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Early surge in absentee requests from Youngstown, Ohio.

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http://www.vindy.com/news/2016/sep/15/requests-to-vote-by-mail-surge-above--le/?mobile

Hopefully a good sign.

I wouldn't be so sure. This is an area I expect to swing to Trump (though I think Clinton will very narrowly carry Mahoning)

Nah, Hillary will still crush him there.

[Buffalo Bill]

Very fishy

[KingSweden]

Early surge in absentee requests from Youngstown, Ohio.

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http://www.vindy.com/news/2016/sep/15/requests-to-vote-by-mail-surge-above--le/?mobile

Hopefully a good sign.

I wouldn't be so sure. This is an area I expect to swing to Trump (though I think Clinton will very narrowly carry Mahoning)

Nah, Hillary will still crush him there.

Curious what your reasoning is (I know little of Youngstown area but heard estimates that between 20-30% of union members are voting for Trump)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Very fishy

Of course it is.

[heatcharger]

Democratic ballot requests are way up compared to 2012 in NC.

[Tender Branson]

Democratic ballot requests are way up compared to 2012 in NC.

He also tweets:

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So, not even 2% of the expected early vote has even requested ballots ... (or 1% of the expected overall vote).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yes, very early, but still encouraging about the strength of the Dem ground game.

[Gass3268]

Yes, very early, but still encouraging about the strength of the Dem ground game.

This is also encouraging:

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[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/wegetmessages/status/776654203557064704
Still very early, not many ballots returned, and not significant compared to actual in person early vote.

Someone found it similar to 2012.

[Badger]

Isn't the City of Youngstown itself pretty black?

Yep the black and white population there is pretty equal at roughly 45%.

Yeah, but not the county as a whole by a long shot.

[heatcharger]

Dr. Michael Blitzer is doing some analysis of the early voting in NC: http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/

Some interesting graphs:





Obviously in 2012 Republicans started dominating early voting at 51 days before the election, but the outstanding main-in ballots seem to be split still between Dems and GOP.

Let's see if Democrats hold their lead for a large period of time.