The absentee/early vote thread

[Panda Express]

MSNBC just announced the party registration of the first 4,000 returned absentee ballots in NC:

Democrat 42%
Republican 34%
Unaffiliated 25%
Libertarian <1%

Obviously we don't know exactly who these votes were cast for, but a eight point registration lead has to mean something good for Clinton. And before anyone says "DIXIECRATS!", it was also mentioned that at this point in 2012, Republicans had a 5% lead in this statistic.

I'm ready to project a winner

[Xing]

Well, early voting from that Old North site show Democrats holding longer than in 2012.



Also, while the Democrats and Unaffiliateds are ahead of their 2012 numbers, Republicans are lagging behind.

According to this graph the GOP took the lead 51 days before Election Day last cycle.

While this is good news, my worry is that a lot of White conservative Democrats that haven't voted in ages have been reengaged by Trump and that passion is partially at work here. Or maybe this is all just a sign of Clinton's superior ground game.

My guess would be that it's a bit of both. Overall, these numbers are looking good so far, but it is still very early.

[JerryArkansas]

What will be interesting about this is, are these Democratic votes election day and early votes being turned or is this something bigger.

[Classic Conservative]

Per Nate Cohn's model Trump has a two point lead with the NC Ballots.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/779332855084220416

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

That... doesn't make sense.

[Gass3268]

He also noted this represents an improvement from 2012.

[JerryArkansas]

Per Nate Cohn's model Trump has a two point lead with the NC Ballots.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/779332855084220416

Which is way down from 2012, or did you not what to add that part as well.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Interesting in the Maine data that both R and D are up in CD1 but down in CD2, which pretty much cancel out in the statewide numbers.

[Tender Branson]

In Iowa, Dems typically have a huge early advantage in requested ballots - but that doesn't mean anything for the election day result, or the total early/absentee vote (because the margin narrows the closer you get to election day):

So far, about 91.000 ballots were requested, with a 56% D 21% R split.

During roughly the same time in 2014, about 147.000 ballots were requested, with a 53% D 27% R split.

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[KingSweden]

He also noted this represents an improvement from 2012.

So it is an improvement, just not "huge D lead!" As some have interpreted. Still, fits CV of them doing better

[Tender Branson]

FL already has over 2 million ballots requested, which split 43% R and 37% D (see post from TN volunteer slightly above).

In Mid-October 2014, there were also more than 2 million ballots requested in FL, and the split was 42% R, 39% D ...

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-picking-up-s_b_5973716.html

[KingSweden]

FL already has over 2 million ballots requested, which split 43% R and 37% D (see post from TN volunteer slightly above).

In Mid-October 2014, there were also more than 2 million ballots requested in FL, and the split was 42% R, 39% D ...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-picking-up-s_b_5973716.html

So a month ahead of schedule to hit same # of requested absentees? Interesting.

[GeorgiaModerate]

FL already has over 2 million ballots requested, which split 43% R and 37% D (see post from TN volunteer slightly above).

In Mid-October 2014, there were also more than 2 million ballots requested in FL, and the split was 42% R, 39% D ...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-picking-up-s_b_5973716.html

So a month ahead of schedule to hit same # of requested absentees? Interesting.

Midterm vs Presidential year is not a great comparison.  Is there any data from 2012?

[Ebsy]

FL already has over 2 million ballots requested, which split 43% R and 37% D (see post from TN volunteer slightly above).

In Mid-October 2014, there were also more than 2 million ballots requested in FL, and the split was 42% R, 39% D ...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-picking-up-s_b_5973716.html

So a month ahead of schedule to hit same # of requested absentees? Interesting.

Midterm vs Presidential year is not a great comparison.  Is there any data from 2012?

Not on the SoS website.

[Matty]

Didn't we learn in 2014 that using early/absentee data to extraploate things can put egg on your face?

People thought Hagan was going to coast to victory based just on favorable absentee data out of NC in 2014.

[Xing]

The Republican surge in Maine doesn't look like it's happening just yet. I suppose it's possible that Trump is winning unaffiliated voters by a wide margin, or a lot of Democrats are voting for Trump, but those numbers alone suggest a very slight R trend in ME-02, rather than a 9% swing or greater.

[swf541]

Didn't we learn in 2014 that using early/absentee data to extraploate things can put egg on your face?

People thought Hagan was going to coast to victory based just on favorable absentee data out of NC in 2014.

Definitely true, but there isnt harm in comparing and noticing the differences compared to 2012

[Doimper]

FL already has over 2 million ballots requested, which split 43% R and 37% D (see post from TN volunteer slightly above).

In Mid-October 2014, there were also more than 2 million ballots requested in FL, and the split was 42% R, 39% D ...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-picking-up-s_b_5973716.html

So a month ahead of schedule to hit same # of requested absentees? Interesting.

Midterm vs Presidential year is not a great comparison.  Is there any data from 2012?

I'm hearing that the Dems had a 3 point lead in 2012.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Didn't we learn in 2014 that using early/absentee data to extraploate things can put egg on your face?

People thought Hagan was going to coast to victory based just on favorable absentee data out of NC in 2014.

Definitely true, but there isnt harm in comparing and noticing the differences compared to 2012

Hagan was hurt by the collapse in election-day turnout.

[Matty]

Didn't we learn in 2014 that using early/absentee data to extraploate things can put egg on your face?

People thought Hagan was going to coast to victory based just on favorable absentee data out of NC in 2014.

Definitely true, but there isnt harm in comparing and noticing the differences compared to 2012

Hagan was hurt by the collapse in election-day turnout.

Not to go off track, but what the heck was up with that? How can a campaign be so good at absentee/early vote, but so bad on election day at GOTV?

[Alcon]

Didn't we learn in 2014 that using early/absentee data to extraploate things can put egg on your face?

People thought Hagan was going to coast to victory based just on favorable absentee data out of NC in 2014.

Definitely true, but there isnt harm in comparing and noticing the differences compared to 2012

Hagan was hurt by the collapse in election-day turnout.

Not to go off track, but what the heck was up with that? How can a campaign be so good at absentee/early vote, but so bad on election day at GOTV?

I'd argue that campaigns and outreach drive early voting turnout more than Election Day turnout.  Early voting turnout mostly consists of voters who were inevitably going to cast ballots, but were extra motivated to do it early.  It's quite possible that a campaign could do an excellent job of motivating those inevitable voters, and yet the overall electorate could exhibit depressed turnout.  In short, it's easier to convert someone from an inevitable voter than an early voter, than it is to convince them that it's worth voting at all.

Another factor: 1,000 voters converted to early voting may be a meaningful increase in early voting (as a % increase), but 1,000 voters mobilized on Election Day may only be a drop in the bucket.

And most obviously, there's way less time to mobilize Election Day voters than to convert voters into early voters.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/779667613559336961

NC ABS VOTE TRENDS (9/17 to 9/24):
From 43-32-25 to 41-35-25 Dem, and

from 80-12-8 to 82-12-6 white/black.

IOW, more Trump friendly.

[MT Treasurer]

Party registration of accepted ballots so far (Keep in mind that very few ballots were cast in ME, IA and FL so far):

Red = Democratic
Blue = Republican
Green = Unaffiliated

Nationwide:

D 2,735   40.5%
R 2,351   34.8%
I  1,647   24.4%
O      25   0.4%    

Total 6,758

Party registration of requested ballots so far:

Nationwide:

D 846,845   38.2%
R 929,939   41.9%
I 392,148    17.7%
O 50,332     2.3$

Total 2,219,264

[Tender Branson]

Only 50 votes have been returned so far in FL ... lol

Could you also do a map of requests ?

Because FL has over 2 million requests already, with Republicans leading 43%-37%.

[Brittain33]

Are these North Carolina Dixiecrats... however many there are still left... really more likely to come out early for Trump against Clinton than they were for Romney against Obama? It's possible, but it's hard for me to imagine considering how Alabama voted against Obama. Remember, we are talking about an increase against a 2012 baseline, not a 1980 or 1992 baseline.