The absentee/early vote thread

[StatesPoll]

Lol, you're a delight.

Noting that most ballot requests from the last 24 hours wouldn't have been processed yet and don't pretend that you have the vaguest idea what an orgasm is.

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

1st debate was finished 09/26/2016 10:30PM
Florida vote-by-mail request Compiled     09/27/2016 3:39PM

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

K gurl. Whatever helps you sleep in your mother's basement.

[Torie]

The huge black bolded capitalized text "shouting" I see on this page is annoying, and unnecessary. It does not lend the text gravitas. It does precisely the opposite. Thank you.

[RJEvans]

Do we have FL numbers from this point in the election in 2012?

[Ebsy]

Looks like Trump's ground game disaster is unfolding in North Carolina. The GOP needs to run of the margin in the absentee vote to win the state.

[bilaps]

Looks like Trump's ground game disaster is unfolding in North Carolina. The GOP needs to run of the margin in the absentee vote to win the state.

This really isn't true.

[KingSweden]

Maine absentee ballots stats as of 9/27

Thought the number for GOP in CD2 would be higher. Perhaps polls overstating GOP support or Dems crossing over? Too early to tell, alas

[RJEvans]

Looks like Trump's ground game disaster is unfolding in North Carolina. The GOP needs to run of the margin in the absentee vote to win the state.

I think it's best to wait and see what happens in the early voting period. We really don't know who is voting for who. A lot of them could be older conservative Democrats who support Trump.

Thought the number for GOP in CD2 would be higher. Perhaps polls overstating GOP support or Dems crossing over? Too early to tell, alas

Looking at the graph it looks like there was a net negative shift somewhere in the single digits for the Dems and a net positive shift somewhere in the single digits for the Republicans. I think it's too early to tell if this will be meaningful.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

What are the party affiliation numbers like in Maine these days?


Isn't it plurality independent?

[Wiz in Wis]

Looks like Trump's ground game disaster is unfolding in North Carolina. The GOP needs to run of the margin in the absentee vote to win the state.

This really isn't true.

Agreed, all this means is that the Dems are doing better, and the GOP worse, than this point in 2012. But still not a ton of votes to count on.

[KingSweden]

What are the party affiliation numbers like in Maine these days?


Isn't it plurality independent?

It wouldn't surprise me if that were he case

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

What are the party affiliation numbers like in Maine these days?


Isn't it plurality independent?

It wouldn't surprise me if that were he case

http://www.pressherald.com/interactive/maine_registered_voters_democrat_republican_independent_green/


36.7 Unenrolled.  Not as high as I seemed to think (mid 40's).

[Gass3268]

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From Ari Berman

[Dr. Arch]

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From Ari Berman

[HillOfANight]

http://hotair.com/archives/2016/09/28/gop-jumps-140000-lead-fl-absentee-requests/

Thanks to the big gaps in Orange and Osceola, Democrats have an I-4 advantage of 7,368 ballots, or about a 40.2/39.3 percentage advantage. Worth noting: George W. Bush handily won Osceola in 2004 52.5/47, Hillsborough by 53/46.2, and came within 800 votes of winning Orange while taking the state 52/47. These seven counties account for over a third of all absentee ballot requests in the state of Florida.

If the I-4 Corridor still holds the key to the Sunshine State — and it’s almost certain to be won or lost in these seven counties — then Republicans might be at a serious disadvantage already, and better hope to win big among independents.

[SunSt0rm]

Found this

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http://bigstory.ap.org/article/0a12b25e914d4e70ac85bbe3d9549406/early-votes-high-interest-buoys-clinton-key-states

[Minnesota Mike]

FWIW Hillary Clinton has received at least one vote in Minnesota. Feels weird to have done my civic duty 6 weeks before the election. 

[Dr. Arch]

FWIW Hillary Clinton has received at least one vote in Minnesota. Feels weird to have done my civic duty 6 weeks before the election. 

Thank you

[Sorenroy]

NC absentee ballot requests as of 9/28:

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Even though Republicans now lead with requests, Democrats still hold a roughly 500 vote lead in returned ballots:


Source

Note that it is the first day that 2016 Dems lag behind 2012 Repubs.

[Fusionmunster]

Found this

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http://bigstory.ap.org/article/0a12b25e914d4e70ac85bbe3d9549406/early-votes-high-interest-buoys-clinton-key-states

I wonder where StatesPoll is?

[HillOfANight]

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/data-points/why-early-get-out-vote-efforts-favor-clinton-ballot-requests-n653361

This was done 9/23, but I don't think it was posted here. Condenses a lot of Michael McDonald's random insights. I found it by Googling TargetSmart (the one that had the Clinton +3 Ohio poll recently). The Michigan party ID was estimated since the government doesn't track it.



In North Carolina/Pennsylvania, 18-29 are a higher % of ballot requests than 30-44 #GroundGame.

[Dr. Arch]

Not looking good for Trump. And what's up with Iowa? I thought it was Lean R or something?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Not looking good for Trump. And what's up with Iowa? I thought it was Lean R or something?

Woah... did the IA ground-game suddenly just wake up?

[KingSweden]

Not looking good for Trump. And what's up with Iowa? I thought it was Lean R or something?

Woah... did the IA ground-game suddenly just wake up?

Maybe Robby Mook DOES know what he's doing

[Lief 🗽]

Mook is a genius folks. Don't you ever doubt that beautiful son of a bitch.