The absentee/early vote thread

[Dr. Arch]

Not looking good for Trump. And what's up with Iowa? I thought it was Lean R or something?

Woah... did the IA ground-game suddenly just wake up?

Maybe Robby Mook DOES know what he's doing

He IS a piece of work after all

-ahem- Back to the subject, it looks like something big is happening in Iowa that the polls aren't catching for Dem ballots to be leading by such an overwhelming amount.

[Xing]

Well, so much for Safe R Iowa. In terms of Party ID, it's now looking more like it did in 2012. How do the other states compare to 2012?

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

How is Florida comparing to 2012?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

How is Florida comparing to 2012?

The Ds are outperforming 2012 by a significant degree. Kind of interesting what happens when you're investing in GOTV versus over-charging on office rent and fueling up a decrepit plane.

[Matty]

How is Florida comparing to 2012?

The Ds are outperforming 2012 by a significant degree. Kind of interesting what happens when you're investing in GOTV versus over-charging on office rent and fueling up a decrepit plane.

Aren't they underperforming?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

How is Florida comparing to 2012?

The Ds are outperforming 2012 by a significant degree. Kind of interesting what happens when you're investing in GOTV versus over-charging on office rent and fueling up a decrepit plane.

Aren't they underperforming?

Not in FL, the GOP had a much larger lead in % terms.

[Maxwell]

Democrats are doing even better than they were doing in 2008 right now in Florida in terms of Absentees.

[Sorenroy]

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/data-points/why-early-get-out-vote-efforts-favor-clinton-ballot-requests-n653361

In North Carolina/Pennsylvania, 18-29 are a higher % of ballot requests than 30-44 #GroundGame.

However, as TN Volunteer's post shows, that is not reflected (yet) in returned ballots (at least in NC):

NC absentee ballot requests as of 9/28:

[StatesPoll]

Found this

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/0a12b25e914d4e70ac85bbe3d9549406/early-votes-high-interest-buoys-clinton-key-states

I wonder where StatesPoll is?

wrong! it's not wise to compare with 2008 results because

1.  At that time, the Republicans held a solid lead in requests, 51 percent to 32 percent,
<----------- it's not a final results. where is the final results of
total absentee vote numbers; republican vs democrats?

2. in 2008 absentee ballots were only 1.85 million.(final results)
http://www.politifact.com/florida/statements/2012/dec/07/ken-detzner/florida-elections-chief-says-we-had-record-turnout/

3. in 2016, The deadline to request that a vote-by-mail ballot be mailed is no later than 5 p.m. on the 6th day before the election.(11/2/2016)
9/28/2016, already 2.24 million. 400k more than final results of 2008.
I guess it will surpass 3million for sure.

The Department of State’s Division of Elections is providing vote-by-mail (formerly referred to as absentee*)
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
The deadline to request that a vote-by-mail ballot be mailed is no later than 5 p.m. on the 6th day before the election.

conclusion)
It doesn't make any change of the fact: TRUMP takes the leads in Florida

[MT Treasurer]

It's very dangerous reading too much into these early numbers.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's very dangerous reading too much into these early numbers.

I agree - but I think a broad conclusion you could look to is that the ground-games of the campaigns are being reflected in these early numbers.

[MT Treasurer]

It's very dangerous reading too much into these early numbers.

I agree - but I think a broad conclusion you could look to is that the ground-games of the campaigns are being reflected in these early numbers.

Maybe. Just wanted to point out that these early numbers don't prove that FL will be won by Trump or that Clinton is doing better than expected in IA.

[RJEvans]

Mook is a genius folks. Don't you ever doubt that beautiful son of a bitch.

He seemed so calm and assured when he appeared on The View. That's good job but for some reason I trust him when he said don't panic we will win.

[HillOfANight]

http://iowastartingline.com/2016/09/29/the-state-of-iowas-early-vote-and-how-it-all-works/

Iowa: As of Thursday morning, Democrats have more than twice as many absentee ballots requested than Republicans. However, Democrats also lag far behind the number of absentees requested at this point in 2012, while Republicans are slightly ahead of their past performance. It’s not enough for Democrats to simply beat Republicans on the early vote, they need to do it by a wide margin.

The national Clinton campaign reportedly researched when the most effective time of the campaign was to talk with voters, and used that data to adjust the early vote schedule.

The first day early vote numbers were publicly reported, Democrats were only at 45% of their totals in 2012 at that time. Now they’re to 56%.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/781481644347658241 Speaking of Iowa, today is the first day they begin "in-person early voting"

[StatesPoll]

Found this

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/0a12b25e914d4e70ac85bbe3d9549406/early-votes-high-interest-buoys-clinton-key-states

I wonder where StatesPoll is?

and also I found it.

Sandiego Union Tribune, October 8th 2012.
Title: Romney looks to cut Obama's early voter advantage

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sdut-romney-looks-to-cut-obamas-early-voter-advantage-2012oct08-story.html

 Among the 29,000 voters who have cast absentee ballots in North Carolina, 54 percent are registered Republicans and 28 percent are Democrats, according to the United States Elections Project at George Mason University.

It's a small sample - more than 2.6 million people voted before Election Day in North Carolina in 2008. And these are all mail ballots, which have historically favored Republicans; in-person voting starts Oct. 18 in North Carolina. Nevertheless, Republicans are encouraged because McCain lost the state's early vote by 11 percentage points.

"North Carolina was a place that they totally caught us flat-footed in 2008," Beeson said. "They jumped out to a lead and never looked back. You don't see that happening this time - Republicans have the lead."

Florida's sample is even smaller - only 10,000 votes so far - but it too favors Republicans over Democrats, 53 percent to 32 percent. In 2008, nearly 4.6 million voters in Florida cast ballots before Election Day.

can u see 'only 10,000 votes so far'? (At early October)

 
Vote-By-Mail Request in Florida: September,29th,2016
Total nearly 2.3 Million votes.

[Wells]

Did StatesPoll ever go to school? Serious question. So far this year only 1,257 people have voted. Per here.

545 Republican
470 Democrat
242 Other/Unaffiliated

[voter1993]

Question: What states in early voting/absentee is Trump doing well in (if any) or holding his own against Clinton? This is my 2nd election voting so knew to all these stats.

[NOVA Green]

Any updates from early voting in Iowa by Party ID, or do these numbers not come in until tomorrow?

[KingSweden]

Question: What states in early voting/absentee is Trump doing well in (if any) or holding his own against Clinton? This is my 2nd election voting so knew to all these stats.

So far, based on past results, Iowa

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Question: What states in early voting/absentee is Trump doing well in (if any) or holding his own against Clinton? This is my 2nd election voting so knew to all these stats.

So far, based on past results, Iowa

But, this does need to be put in context.

[voter1993]

Question: What states in early voting/absentee is Trump doing well in (if any) or holding his own against Clinton? This is my 2nd election voting so knew to all these stats.

So far, based on past results, Iowa

Good! Also, does absentee/early voting help democrats and republicans usually vote on election day? If republicans r pretty much even with democrats with absentee/early voting they should be good on election day? What about florida i'm seeing a lot of mixed signals on here about how they requested more ballots but not a bigger % as 2008?

[StatesPoll]

Did StatesPoll ever go to school? Serious question. So far this year only 1,257 people have voted. Per here.

545 Republican
470 Democrat
242 Other/Unaffiliated

hey snobby,
Because it takes time to return ballots
in the end most people would send.

Iowa 2012 (it's not florida data. but about the return rate, it would be similar)

Party    2012 Requested    2012 Returned    Return Rate
Democrat    312,834               287,935               92%
Republican    229,596               219,576               96%
No Party             198,342              181,260               91%

http://iowastartingline.com/2016/09/29/the-state-of-iowas-early-vote-and-how-it-all-works/

[Gustaf]

Did StatesPoll ever go to school? Serious question. So far this year only 1,257 people have voted. Per here.

545 Republican
470 Democrat
242 Other/Unaffiliated

He probably went to school in Russia.

[Ozymandias]

This is just Wake County in NC (includes Raleigh/Durham/Cary):

Gerry Cohen ‏@gercohen  3h3 hours ago
Wake Co NC voted absentees 47 days pre-elex:

2016 1,739
D 42.4%
R 30.1
U 27.2

2012 185
D 32.4%
R 38.4
U 29.2

up 940%, 18% swing to D

There's a bit more detail in Cohen's FB post: https://www.facebook.com/gercohen/posts/10103848424398478