The absentee/early vote thread

[Dr. Arch]

This is just Wake County in NC (includes Raleigh/Durham/Cary):

Gerry Cohen ‏@gercohen  3h3 hours ago
Wake Co NC voted absentees 47 days pre-elex:

2016 1,739
D 42.4%
R 30.1
U 27.2

2012 185
D 32.4%
R 38.4
U 29.2

up 940%, 18% swing to D

There's a bit more detail in Cohen's FB post: https://www.facebook.com/gercohen/posts/10103848424398478

Bad signs for Trump all around. He needs to be winning absentee ballots unquestionably to even match Romney.

[Gass3268]

This is just Wake County in NC (includes Raleigh/Durham/Cary):

Gerry Cohen ‏@gercohen  3h3 hours ago
Wake Co NC voted absentees 47 days pre-elex:

2016 1,739
D 42.4%
R 30.1
U 27.2

2012 185
D 32.4%
R 38.4
U 29.2

up 940%, 18% swing to D

There's a bit more detail in Cohen's FB post: https://www.facebook.com/gercohen/posts/10103848424398478

Bad signs for Trump all around. He needs to be winning absentee ballots unquestionably to even match Romney.

The results out of Mecklenburg will also be intetesting. Similar dynamics possibly.

[HillOfANight]

This is just Wake County in NC (includes Raleigh/Durham/Cary):

Gerry Cohen ‏@gercohen  3h3 hours ago
Wake Co NC voted absentees 47 days pre-elex:

2016 1,739
D 42.4%
R 30.1
U 27.2

2012 185
D 32.4%
R 38.4
U 29.2

up 940%, 18% swing to D

There's a bit more detail in Cohen's FB post: https://www.facebook.com/gercohen/posts/10103848424398478

https://twitter.com/gercohen/status/781890886120706048

Living in Wake County I can say there is no Democratic absentee ballot GOTV (yet). This is all self-motivated.

[Dr. Arch]

This is just Wake County in NC (includes Raleigh/Durham/Cary):

Gerry Cohen ‏@gercohen  3h3 hours ago
Wake Co NC voted absentees 47 days pre-elex:

2016 1,739
D 42.4%
R 30.1
U 27.2

2012 185
D 32.4%
R 38.4
U 29.2

up 940%, 18% swing to D

There's a bit more detail in Cohen's FB post: https://www.facebook.com/gercohen/posts/10103848424398478

https://twitter.com/gercohen/status/781890886120706048

Living in Wake County I can say there is no Democratic absentee ballot GOTV (yet). This is all self-motivated.

Sweet

[Brittain33]

This is just Wake County in NC (includes Raleigh/Durham/Cary):

Gerry Cohen ‏@gercohen  3h3 hours ago
Wake Co NC voted absentees 47 days pre-elex:

2016 1,739
D 42.4%
R 30.1
U 27.2

2012 185
D 32.4%
R 38.4
U 29.2

up 940%, 18% swing to D

There's a bit more detail in Cohen's FB post: https://www.facebook.com/gercohen/posts/10103848424398478

https://twitter.com/gercohen/status/781890886120706048

Living in Wake County I can say there is no Democratic absentee ballot GOTV (yet). This is all self-motivated.

WOW. I've assumed the Dem advantage so far is because Obama didn't seriously contest the state in 2012 whereas the Clinton campaign is organizing voters...

[HillOfANight]

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/data-points/why-early-get-out-vote-efforts-favor-clinton-ballot-requests-n653361

I'm dubious that this surge has nothing to do with the Clinton campaign... See 18-29 in NC > 30-44. Maybe he meant organizers haven't been prodding outstanding ballots to return themselves yet, but the campaign has targeted and instructed voters on the process.

[Ebsy]

Could be that campus organizations (College Democrats) in North Carolina are driving absentee turnout.

[Dr. Arch]

Could be that campus organizations (College Democrats) in North Carolina are driving absentee turnout.

They're doing it here in Wisconsin. I've seen several college campuses with tables full of absentee ballot pages in areas with lots of student movement, so it wouldn't surprise me.

A lot of these are managed by young women too.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Among returned and accepted ballots, though, registered Democrats have 40 percent of those ballots, with 35 percent from registered Republicans, and 24 percent from registered unaffiliated voters.


In comparing this year's numbers of returned and accepted mail-in absentee ballots by party registration, the trend continues to hold for registered Democrats and registered unaffiliated voters by their over-performance.


While the total returned and accepted mail-in absentee ballots are 106 percent of the same-day totals from 2012, registered Democrats are at 140 percent, registered unaffiliated voters are at 139 percent, and registered Republicans are behind their cumulative numbers from four years ago, at only 73 percent of their same-day totals.

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/

Very favorable trend for Clinton!

[StatesPoll]

It is very Clear.
Florida Absentee(Vote-by-Mail)
10/1/2016, TRUMP is doing far much better than Romney did in October,2012


Florida Absentee
Romney(October 2012): Republicans - Democrats = +12k
TRUMP(October 2016): Republicans - Democrats = +144k.  
Especially, Returned votes:  REP(1307)>>>>DEM(876)

News was written at October 16th, 2012
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/15/1144854/-Dems-well-positioned-in-Florida-outworking-Republicans-relative-to-2008

1. Florida: The Republicans lead Democrats when it comes to absentee votes cast, about 126,000 to 114,000.

so, at Mid-October,2012. Republican leads Democrat of Absentee
only +12k votes in Flordia.

2. 10/1/2016.  Florida: Vote-by-Mail (Absentee)
Provided:  Republicans: 1.024 Million | Democrats: 880K    
Republicans leads Democrats of Absentee
+144k votes in Flordia.

Returned: Republicans 1307 >>>>> Democrats  876.    (Total 2741)
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

[StatesPoll]

'boring' becuz TRUMP is doing well in FL? (Especially far much better than Romney did in Mid-October 2012.)

if it was FL: Vote-By-Mail Request DEM 1.05 Million > REP 900K
FL: Returned Votes: DEM 1400 votes > REP 1000 Votes
I'm sure, you would not say 'boring'. 

[Ebsy]

Intellectually bankrupt Statespoll comparing "ballots cast" data with ballot request data, proving once and for all that he lacks even basic reading comprehension.

[StatesPoll]

Intellectually bankrupt Statespoll comparing "ballots cast" data with ballot request data, proving once and for all that he lacks even basic reading comprehension.

You don't understand.

1. Most voters gonna vote in the end, once they requested Ballots.
2. Plus, Returned(voted) Rate, Normally Republican >>>> Democrats.
Especially in Florida even more
look Election 2014 results.
http://dos.myflorida.com/media/696917/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2014-gen.pdf

3. Mid-October, 2012 Returned(voted) : REP 44% | DEM 40%   
REP +4%
           vs
October 2nd, 2016 Returend(voted): REP 48% (1337 votes) | DEM 31.7% (883 votes)   
REP +16.3%

TRUMP is doing better +12.3% than Mitt Romney(2012).

Just admit you snobby, Now Florida = Likely TRUMP

 

[Minnesota Mike]

Intellectually bankrupt Statespoll comparing "ballots cast" data with ballot request data, proving once and for all that he lacks even basic reading comprehension.

You don't understand.

1. Most voters gonna vote in the end, once they requested Ballots.
2. Plus, Returned(voted) Rate, Normally Republican >>>> Democrats.
Especially in Florida even more
look Election 2014 results.
http://dos.myflorida.com/media/696917/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2014-gen.pdf

3. Mid-October, 2012 Returned(voted) : REP 44% | DEM 40%   
REP +4%
           vs
October 2nd, 2016 Returend(voted): REP 48% (1337 votes) | DEM 31.7% (883 votes)   
REP +16.3%

TRUMP is doing better +12.3% than Mitt Romney(2012).

Just admit you snobby, Now Florida = Likely TRUMP

 

You do realize domestic ballots, vast majority of absentee ballots, have not even been mailed yet (they go out this week). So far the only ballots that have returned are overseas/military. With fewer than 3,000 ballots returned (about 0.03% of expected turnout)  you can draw zero conclusions yet about Florida. 

[Xing]

Guys, please ignore the troll and don't let him derail this thread.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith Oct 1
https://twitter.com/ElectProject
daniel a. smith Retweeted Nate Cohn

In FL, newly registered from Aug 1-Sept 1 2016:
White: 50.8%
Black: 13.4%
Hispanic: 20.8%

Rep: 24.8%
Dem: 34.2%
NPA: 38.7%
Dem:
NPA:

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

NC absentee ballot stats as of 10/2



Democrats still ahead as of 10/2

[Badger]

http://iowastartingline.com/2016/09/29/the-state-of-iowas-early-vote-and-how-it-all-works/

Iowa: As of Thursday morning, Democrats have more than twice as many absentee ballots requested than Republicans. However, Democrats also lag far behind the number of absentees requested at this point in 2012, while Republicans are slightly ahead of their past performance. It’s not enough for Democrats to simply beat Republicans on the early vote, they need to do it by a wide margin.

The national Clinton campaign reportedly researched when the most effective time of the campaign was to talk with voters, and used that data to adjust the early vote schedule.

The first day early vote numbers were publicly reported, Democrats were only at 45% of their totals in 2012 at that time. Now they’re to 56%.

Jeez! Those are encouraging numbers for IA Republicans.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Again... the Dems are still lagging timeline-wise. If we're still in this place in 10 days, then I'll be concerned.

[Gass3268]

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[Xing]

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Either I was right all along, or Ascott's and my avatar really are working some magic here.

[dspNY]

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Nevada moves to Lean D with those registration numbers. Not enough votes in the rest of the state to offset. Probably moves the Senate race to Tossup even with Cortez-Masto trailing in most polling

[dspNY]

Some Florida news:

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/782929522773680128

Dems have submitted 469k new voter registration forms. GOP submitted only 59k

[heatcharger]

Some Florida news:

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/782929522773680128

Dems have submitted 469k new voter registration forms. GOP submitted only 59k

Wow! Any comparison to 2012? Looks like Hillary's giant GOTV advantage is starting to pay off.