The absentee/early vote thread

[HillOfANight]

What does that mean? Have they been stockpiling forms, and will submit soon, or does it just mean the GOP is mostly self registering, while the Dems have been registering a lot of people manually?

[Gass3268]

Jon Rolston again:

New NV voter reg numbers: Ds up 77,467, picked up a net 5,830 in September. Margin up to 5.6  percent. Indies now more than 20 % of total.

[Gass3268]

DDHQ:

Colorado registration (active) as of this afternoon:
D 998,845
R 992,944
Ds now boast registration edge in CO.
UNA 1,080,438
 
Democrats take the active registration lead! Four years it was this:

In mid-Oct 2012, reg in CO stood at:
R 912456
D 871712
UNAF 882063

[Ebsy]

I see my prediction of Democrats taking the edge in active voter registration this month in Colorado has come true. Historic!

[Dr. Arch]

I see my prediction of Democrats taking the edge in active voter registration this month in Colorado has come true. Historic!

(づ◕‿‿◕)づ [Accolades]

[Landslide Lyndon]

OTOH the Democrats registration edge continues to decline in Nevada.
What's up there?

[Ebsy]

OTOH the Democrats registration edge continues to decline in Nevada.
What's up there?

It's not as far as I can tell. Democrats increased their edge in Active voters from August to September.

[Landslide Lyndon]

OTOH the Democrats registration edge continues to decline in Nevada.
What's up there?

It's not as far as I can tell. Democrats increased their edge in Active voters from August to September.

@RalstonReports

Partisan edge by registration:
2008 final: Ds +8.4 percent
2012 final: Ds +7.2 percent
2016 now: Ds +5.6 percent

Trend with a capital T.

[NOVA Green]

OTOH the Democrats registration edge continues to decline in Nevada.
What's up there?

It's not as far as I can tell. Democrats increased their edge in Active voters from August to September.

@RalstonReports

Partisan edge by registration:
2008 final: Ds +8.4 percent
2012 final: Ds +7.2 percent
2016 now: Ds +5.6 percent

Trend with a capital T.

SoCal Anglo retirees moving to NV are greater than population growth among Native residents, especially considering the Latino population.

Baby Boomers, that are rapidly becoming the most selfish generation in modern American history, are now selling off their $500k ranch houses in OC and moving to the desert, and unlike SoCal, they can't live in their bubbleland of gated communities and golf courses, and the America of their rose-tinted glasses from the 1950s is much more diverse and multi-ethnic, and they simply don't that this country is so much different from back in the days.... (Sarcastic answer)

Ok--- that was a bit of a simplistic response, but I really do believe that migration of California retirees is shifting the Anglo vote more Republican, and that under a Democratic President (Obama) they have not seen housing relief from a catastrophic collapse of the retirement nest-egg, which for many Americans is basically the value of their house. (More serious answer).

[KingSweden]

OTOH the Democrats registration edge continues to decline in Nevada.
What's up there?

It's not as far as I can tell. Democrats increased their edge in Active voters from August to September.

@RalstonReports

Partisan edge by registration:
2008 final: Ds +8.4 percent
2012 final: Ds +7.2 percent
2016 now: Ds +5.6 percent

Trend with a capital T.

Which rhymes with P, which stands for Pool!!

...sorry

[HillOfANight]

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/trackers/2016-10-04/clinton-camp-hispanics-mail-ballot-requests-up-in-fla-n-c

Hispanic voters’ requests for mail ballots are up 73% in Fla. compared to this point in 2012 and 43% in N.C., Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s campaign says in "field report" memo.

Black voters’ mail ballot requests in N.C. are up 73% from 2012

[Badger]

Iowa absentee ballot stats as of 10/3

RIP Dem hopes in IA.

[Crumpets]

Iowa absentee ballot stats as of 10/3

RIP Dem hopes in IA.

It should be noted, though, that Obama won Iowa by about 92,000 votes in 2012. So at least the Dems have some wiggle room that they wouldn't have in a state like, say, Florida.

[Landslide Lyndon]

New data from Iowa.

[Ebsy]

Looks like the GOP advantage is falling. We'll see if the Democratic strategy this cycle pays off in the late term.

[NOVA Green]

New data from Iowa.

So if I see this right, the Dems are starting to pick up on the absentee ballot requests in IA, after deliberately holding out on the push until later than average in the season (Per some of the various political sites reporting)?

[Badger]

Iowa absentee ballot stats as of 10/3

RIP Dem hopes in IA.

It should be noted, though, that Obama won Iowa by about 92,000 votes in 2012. So at least the Dems have some wiggle room that they would have in a state like, say, Florida.

IF Democrats don't drop at all in the election day vote while losing ground dramatically in thee early vote. but that's highly unlikely.

[StatesPoll]

Intellectually bankrupt Statespoll comparing "ballots cast" data with ballot request data, proving once and for all that he lacks even basic reading comprehension.

You don't understand.

1. Most voters gonna vote in the end, once they requested Ballots.
2. Plus, Returned(voted) Rate, Normally Republican >>>> Democrats.
Especially in Florida even more
look Election 2014 results.
http://dos.myflorida.com/media/696917/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2014-gen.pdf

3. Mid-October, 2012 Returned(voted) : REP 44% | DEM 40%  
REP +4%
           vs
October 2nd, 2016 Returend(voted): REP 48% (1337 votes) | DEM 31.7% (883 votes)  
REP +16.3%

TRUMP is doing better +12.3% than Mitt Romney(2012).

Just admit you snobby, Now Florida = Likely TRUMP

  

You do realize domestic ballots, vast majority of absentee ballots, have not even been mailed yet (they go out this week). So far the only ballots that have returned are overseas/military. With fewer than 3,000 ballots returned (about 0.03% of expected turnout)  you can draw zero conclusions yet about Florida.  

really? Now 5296 ballots returned.(voted)

Florida: Vote-by-mail(absentee) Returned ballots(voted)
Total 5296 ballots. 10/5/2016   4:02 AM
Republican 2587 (48.84%) | Democrat 1596 (30.11%) | 3rd Party 179 (3.37%) |
 Independent 935 (17.65%)

Total requested ballots (vote-by-mail)  2,466,451 + 5296 = 2,471,741
3rd Party 59,603 + 179 = 59782.   59,782 / 2,471,741 = 2.41%

if those ballots(returend) are mostly overseas/military. how come returned(voted) 3rd party ballots (3.37%) are 1.4 time higher than total numbers of requested by 3rd party voters (2.41%)?

if those returned ballots are mostly overseas/military, 3rd party voters rate % should be lower or similar as total %

[Alcon]

if those returned ballots are mostly overseas/military, 3rd party voters rate % should be lower or similar as total %

I don't follow.  Military voters are younger and more male, which is consistent with the group being disproportionately registered with third parties (plus third-party vote tends to be higher on bases in general).

[Brittain33]

Looks like Iowa Republicans may be maxing out the number of voters actually willing to show up for Trump vs. a normal Republican candidate.

[Wolves]

Let's look at this from the view of previous elections and the such, okay.

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

This is Florida, Florida has more votes by Republicans right now, at a number that allowed Obama to be ahead in 2012 and 2008. Calculating the percentage of this vote with how much of the Florida electorate voted in 2012 and 2008, we can calculate that 29.8% of the vote has been already decided and its on the side of the Republicans.

Now let's look at the unaffiliated, big thing that always decides elections, Obama only lost the unaffiliated vote by 5% in 2012, and even then the huge amount of Black turnout really rose him above (black turnout was close to 70%)

So how is Trump and Hillary doing between independents?

https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/782649685286629376

This is a poll, many polls are alike it but this is the only one that is post debate. As we can see from the debate, the support went from Trump and Hillary to the Libertarian Gary Johnson.

But considering Trump is nearly ahead by 20% between independents, we can calculate that a majority of that independent early vote is going to Trump.

Meaning that Trump is winning easily by 150k (estimate) in Florida already, I haven't seen the NC early voting reports by party so I'd love someone to post them.

[dspNY]

To counter what is going to be a very heavy Democratic early vote, the Repubs have to be leading the Florida VBM by a minimum of 250K to have a chance. Today the VBM narrowed to a 110K advantage for the GOP. Additionally, a lot of Florida independents are Hispanic so the Indy vote is pretty close to even there

[BoAtlantis]

To counter what is going to be a very heavy Democratic early vote, the Repubs have to be leading the Florida VBM by a minimum of 250K to have a chance. Today the VBM narrowed to a 110K advantage for the GOP. Additionally, a lot of Florida independents are Hispanic so the Indy vote is pretty close to even there

From several days ago,

"Statewide, Republicans are ahead in ballot requests — 43 percent to 38 percent.
That's a much narrower gap than in 2008, the most recent in which comparable data was available. At that time, the Republicans held a solid lead in requests, 51 percent to 32 percent, according to data analyzed for the AP by Catalist, a Democratic firm that helped run data operations for President Obama's 2008 race. Obama won the state by 2.8 percentage points."


Trump has to be significantly ahead in ballot request. McCain lost FL by 2.8% despite being up 51-32% at a certain point.

[Gass3268]

To counter what is going to be a very heavy Democratic early vote, the Repubs have to be leading the Florida VBM by a minimum of 250K to have a chance. Today the VBM narrowed to a 110K advantage for the GOP. Additionally, a lot of Florida independents are Hispanic so the Indy vote is pretty close to even there

From several days ago,

"Statewide, Republicans are ahead in ballot requests — 43 percent to 38 percent.
That's a much narrower gap than in 2008, the most recent in which comparable data was available. At that time, the Republicans held a solid lead in requests, 51 percent to 32 percent, according to data analyzed for the AP by Catalist, a Democratic firm that helped run data operations for President Obama's 2008 race. Obama won the state by 2.8 percentage points."


Trump has to be significantly ahead in ballot request. McCain lost FL by 2.8% despite being up 51-32% at a certain point.

Yeah, Florida is essentially a reverse Iowa.

[Dr. Arch]

To counter what is going to be a very heavy Democratic early vote, the Repubs have to be leading the Florida VBM by a minimum of 250K to have a chance. Today the VBM narrowed to a 110K advantage for the GOP. Additionally, a lot of Florida independents are Hispanic so the Indy vote is pretty close to even there

From several days ago,

"Statewide, Republicans are ahead in ballot requests — 43 percent to 38 percent.
That's a much narrower gap than in 2008, the most recent in which comparable data was available. At that time, the Republicans held a solid lead in requests, 51 percent to 32 percent, according to data analyzed for the AP by Catalist, a Democratic firm that helped run data operations for President Obama's 2008 race. Obama won the state by 2.8 percentage points."


Trump has to be significantly ahead in ballot request. McCain lost FL by 2.8% despite being up 51-32% at a certain point.

Yeah, Florida is essentially a reverse Iowa.

I'll gladly take that trade.