The absentee/early vote thread

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/786240169338777600
Cool stat, regarding recently registered voters, specifically ones in the last week of registration.

Florida: Of the 151k voters  registered Oct1-Oct9, 2012, 68.5% voted in Nov 6 election.
Of the state's 12.5m reg voters, 68.3% voted .

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/786258607616561152
This doesn't seem good for Clinton.

Statewide, OH absentee ballot requests are down 2.6% from 2012.

In Democratic strongholds:
Cuyahoga -16.1%
Franklin -16.3%
Hamilton -3.1%

[Ozymandias]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/786258607616561152
This doesn't seem good for Clinton.

Statewide, OH absentee ballot requests are down 2.6% from 2012.

In Democratic strongholds:
Cuyahoga -16.1%
Franklin -16.3%
Hamilton -3.1%

As one of the tweet commenters noted, this could be due to lack of interest from Republican moderates who are concentrated in Dem strongholds...

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/_TargetSmart/status/786273435278127104

Party affiliation of early voters (estimated for Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia). Comparisons can't really be made to 2012 yet, since in person early voting dominates in Georgia, North Carolina.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/786258607616561152
This doesn't seem good for Clinton.

Statewide, OH absentee ballot requests are down 2.6% from 2012.

In Democratic strongholds:
Cuyahoga -16.1%
Franklin -16.3%
Hamilton -3.1%

As one of the tweet commenters noted, this could be due to lack of interest from Republican moderates who are concentrated in Dem strongholds...

It's not just moderates, Republican enthusiasm is just about non-existent in Franklin County atm.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/_TargetSmart/status/786273435278127104

Party affiliation of early voters (estimated for Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia). Comparisons can't really be made to 2012 yet, since in person early voting dominates in Georgia, North Carolina.

Looking good in IA, WI, VA and MI.

[ApatheticAustrian]

since hillary never really needed OH but would take it anway .....liberals can take this relaxed.

florida and NC are muuuuch more important.

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/786258607616561152
This doesn't seem good for Clinton.

Statewide, OH absentee ballot requests are down 2.6% from 2012.

In Democratic strongholds:
Cuyahoga -16.1%
Franklin -16.3%
Hamilton -3.1%

As one of the tweet commenters noted, this could be due to lack of interest from Republican moderates who are concentrated in Dem strongholds...

It's not just moderates, Republican enthusiasm is just about non-existent in Franklin County atm.

If moderate Republicans are the reason, shouldn't Hamilton see a bigger drop-off than 3%? At the same time, I can't deduce at this point whether this is the first bad sign for Hillary in OH. Absentee is dominated by Republicans in most states.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/786258607616561152
This doesn't seem good for Clinton.

Statewide, OH absentee ballot requests are down 2.6% from 2012.

In Democratic strongholds:
Cuyahoga -16.1%
Franklin -16.3%
Hamilton -3.1%

As one of the tweet commenters noted, this could be due to lack of interest from Republican moderates who are concentrated in Dem strongholds...

It's not just moderates, Republican enthusiasm is just about non-existent in Franklin County atm.

If moderate Republicans are the reason, shouldn't Hamilton see a bigger drop-off than 3%? At the same time, I can't deduce at this point whether this is the first bad sign for Hillary in OH. Absentee is dominated by Republicans in most states.

I'm not just talking about moderates, it's Republicans in general (also the Cincinnati suburbs are home to some pretty right-wing Republicans, very different from what you'd find in Franklin County).  Also, I was just talking about Franklin County.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Kyle Kondik mentioned on twitter that Clinton should make pretty substantial gains at Columbus' suburbs. These people are Kasich Republicans.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

   Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions:   568,678

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

The spreadsheet updated

As of 10/12

  Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions:  592,936

http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

101,634 have voted in Florida
117,754 have voted in Iowa
49,647 have voted in Michigan
67,079 have voted in Virginia

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

                       Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions:   654,239


Update: 658,202

[BoAtlantis]

https://www.wired.com/2016/10/hashtag-can-tell-us-early-voting-ohio/

I hate unscientific data much as anyone but here it is.


"But it’s hard to ignore the surprising enthusiasm gap between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the hashtag #OHVotesEarly, which started trending on Twitter this morning as early voting kicked off in Ohio. Throughout the election cycle, Clinton supporters have often been out-shouted by Trump’s and Bernie Sanders’ more vocal voter bases. Today, however, the Ohio hashtag was brimming with photos of voters who had already cast votes for Hillary Clinton. Meanwhile, many of the tweets that included references to Trump were about how the hashtag is—you guessed it—rigged.

But according to Twitter’s data, the enthusiasm gap is real. The social media site tells WIRED that of the tweets sent using the hashtag #OHVotesEarly over the last 24 hours, 75 percent included mentions of Clinton, while just 25 mentioned Trump. “It’s an inexact science,” says Twitter spokesman Nick Pacilio, but it’s a staggering disparity, nonetheless.

[Badger]

https://www.wired.com/2016/10/hashtag-can-tell-us-early-voting-ohio/

I hate unscientific data much as anyone but here it is.


"But it’s hard to ignore the surprising enthusiasm gap between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the hashtag #OHVotesEarly, which started trending on Twitter this morning as early voting kicked off in Ohio. Throughout the election cycle, Clinton supporters have often been out-shouted by Trump’s and Bernie Sanders’ more vocal voter bases. Today, however, the Ohio hashtag was brimming with photos of voters who had already cast votes for Hillary Clinton. Meanwhile, many of the tweets that included references to Trump were about how the hashtag is—you guessed it—rigged.

But according to Twitter’s data, the enthusiasm gap is real. The social media site tells WIRED that of the tweets sent using the hashtag #OHVotesEarly over the last 24 hours, 75 percent included mentions of Clinton, while just 25 mentioned Trump. “It’s an inexact science,” says Twitter spokesman Nick Pacilio, but it’s a staggering disparity, nonetheless.

it's particularly inaccurate as hashtag anything skews heavily towards younger voters. how many people over 55 have a twitter account? over 65?

[BoAtlantis]

https://www.wired.com/2016/10/hashtag-can-tell-us-early-voting-ohio/

I hate unscientific data much as anyone but here it is.


"But it’s hard to ignore the surprising enthusiasm gap between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the hashtag #OHVotesEarly, which started trending on Twitter this morning as early voting kicked off in Ohio. Throughout the election cycle, Clinton supporters have often been out-shouted by Trump’s and Bernie Sanders’ more vocal voter bases. Today, however, the Ohio hashtag was brimming with photos of voters who had already cast votes for Hillary Clinton. Meanwhile, many of the tweets that included references to Trump were about how the hashtag is—you guessed it—rigged.

But according to Twitter’s data, the enthusiasm gap is real. The social media site tells WIRED that of the tweets sent using the hashtag #OHVotesEarly over the last 24 hours, 75 percent included mentions of Clinton, while just 25 mentioned Trump. “It’s an inexact science,” says Twitter spokesman Nick Pacilio, but it’s a staggering disparity, nonetheless.

it's particularly inaccurate as hashtag anything skews heavily towards younger voters. how many people over 55 have a twitter account? over 65?

I agree that it's really skewed but it's hard to gauge the magnitude of it because Twitter doesn't collect age as far as I know. Early voting is dominated by Democrats in most states so while it likely isn't 75-25 in favor of Hillary, it's reasonable to believe she's definitely received much higher than Trump.

[alomas]

Good numbers from Trump in FL and NC, which have already been strongest Republican swing-states in 2012. He must win those states. I don't care about Virginia and Wisconsin, Clinton can carry them by double-digits (that looks realistic) if only Trump will edge the ones he needs.

[Dr. Arch]

Good numbers from Trump in FL and NC, which have already been strongest Republican swing-states in 2012. He must win those states. I don't care about Virginia and Wisconsin, Clinton can carry them by double-digits (that looks realistic) if only Trump will edge the ones he needs.

He's actually underperforming Romney and McCain in both of these states so these are not good numbers for him.

[Gass3268]

Good numbers from Trump in FL and NC, which have already been strongest Republican swing-states in 2012. He must win those states. I don't care about Virginia and Wisconsin, Clinton can carry them by double-digits (that looks realistic) if only Trump will edge the ones he needs.

Yeah, he's embarrassingly underperforming Romney in both of these states. As of 10/7 he was probably underperforming Romney by 23 points in North Carolina and Clinton has almost caught up to Trump in vote by my requests in Florida. Obama was never close before in person voting started in either state.

[MasterJedi]

Too bad the rest of Wisconsin doesn't have early voting like the city of Milwaukee. They started on September 24. I have off this week, would have love to have voted early. Have to wait until October 24th and rush after I get off work since they close a half hour after.

[Gass3268]

Too bad the rest of Wisconsin doesn't have early voting like the city of Milwaukee. They started on September 24. I have off this week, would have love to have voted early. Have to wait until October 24th and rush after I get off work since they close a half hour after.

It was up to the local clerk in each municipality, I think. It's pretty much opened 100% right now in Dane County.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

As of early 10/13

  Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions:  756,027


NC as of 10/13. Republican turn out is WAY DOWN!

[Speed of Sound]

Woof. Those numbers are brutal. Surely this would be a disaster downballot if it continues?

[Gass3268]

Republicans only take the lead only 1 week before in-person early-voting starts, ouch!

[Tender Branson]

Guys, please stop the hype !

Only 0.6% of the vote is in so far.

And only 140K people have even requested ballots in NC, out of an expected vote of 4.5 million.

Even if Dems do a little better now with these few requested ballots, Trump could absolutely crush Hillary among election day voters ...

This is so meaningless right now.