The absentee/early vote thread

[dspNY]

Dems about 29K ahead in ballot requests and 38K in ballots returned. They need to be 50K ahead to win Iowa

Really? Because a). Obama won Iowa by 92K votes in 2012 and b). Democrats said they believe aggressive early vote efforts in 2014 (when early vote numbers looked amazing and Braley got thrashed) simply cannibalized their election day votes without actually adding to their overall vote totals.

Don't get me wrong, it's obviously better to have more votes banked but saying Democrats "need" to be 50K votes ahead to win doesn't add up and doesn't really make sense to me.

Early numbers were not amazing for Braley two years ago. They were actually much worse than Clinton's numbers now. From the IA Secretary of State...

Final absentee ballots received:

DEM: 191,036
GOP: 181,948
IND: 101,675

Braley/Dems led in ballots received by a little more than 9,000. Clinton/Dems leads in ballots received by 38K. In 2012, Obama/Dems turned in 68.4K more ballots than Romney.

Braley lost by 8.3%
Obama won by 5.8%

The current numbers indicate that Iowa is very close

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2014/general/absenteestats.pdf

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2012/general/archiveabsstats.pdf

[The Other Castro]

As of October 1st, this is the partisan makeup of NH:

GOP: 32.2%
Dem: 29.5%
Und: 38.3%

GOP has 24,344 registration advantage.

On October 15th, 2012, the GOP advantage was 33,799.

http://sos.nh.gov/NamesHistory.aspx

[Classic Conservative]

From what I've been seeing in pictures of TN. Early voting turnout seems through the roof.

[Antonio the Sixth]

As of October 1st, this is the partisan makeup of NH:

GOP: 32.2%
Dem: 29.5%
Und: 38.3%

GOP has 24,344 registration advantage.

On October 15th, 2012, the GOP advantage was 33,799.

http://sos.nh.gov/NamesHistory.aspx

Is this good news for Climbin' Maggie?

[MasterJedi]

Parents sadly turned in their Florida Trump ballots. Surprisingly voted for medical marijuana though.

[KingSweden]

From what I've been seeing in pictures of TN. Early voting turnout seems through the roof.

Man, good news for Trump in that all-important swing state!

[Dr. Arch]

Parents sadly turned in their Florida Trump ballots. Surprisingly voted for medical marijuana though.

[dspNY]

GA early vote demographics after two days (from electproject.com)

White: 150,075 (62.8%)
African-American: 67,595 (28.3%)
Hispanic: 2,258 (0.9%)
Other: 4,026 (1.7%)
Unknown: 15,168 (6.3%)

[TarHeelDem]

NC will be a blue state before this is over. 2012 is the last time a white Rethug will ever tarnish it red.

While I think there's a small chance a Republican might win it again, I've been saying for years that NC would be Lean Dem sooner than people were expecting. Something like 2028 probably. I mean, think about it. Romney only won by a hair. Is Ted Cruz honestly going to be able to beat Clinton in 2020? I don't think so.

[Brittain33]

It's unclear how much of this is population growth. You have Trump-loving Sumter County (The Villages) and the Puerto Rican Diaspora in Osceola County with higher turnout, but they're both also growing quickly in population.

Also, you can see where Matthew hit.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Parents sadly turned in their Florida Trump ballots. Surprisingly voted for medical marijuana though.

[Classic Conservative]

Parents sadly turned in their Florida Trump ballots. Surprisingly voted for medical marijuana though.

You're back!

[Dr. Arch]

Parents sadly turned in their Florida Trump ballots. Surprisingly voted for medical marijuana though.

You're back!

Ugh

[Erich Maria Remarque]

It's unclear how much of this is population growth. You have Trump-loving Sumter County (The Villages) and the Puerto Rican Diaspora in Osceola County with higher turnout, but they're both also growing quickly in population.

Also, you can see where Matthew hit.

Some polls are showing Trump trailing Rubio by 10-12%. I don't know how it works in USA, but can someone cast "Republican ballot"  with Clinton+Rubio?

[Dr. Arch]

It's unclear how much of this is population growth. You have Trump-loving Sumter County (The Villages) and the Puerto Rican Diaspora in Osceola County with higher turnout, but they're both also growing quickly in population.

Also, you can see where Matthew hit.

Some polls are showing Trump trailing Rubio by 10-12%. I don't know how it works in USA, but can someone cast "Republican ballot"  with Clinton+Rubio?

Of course

[dspNY]

It's unclear how much of this is population growth. You have Trump-loving Sumter County (The Villages) and the Puerto Rican Diaspora in Osceola County with higher turnout, but they're both also growing quickly in population.

Also, you can see where Matthew hit.

Some polls are showing Trump trailing Rubio by 10-12%. I don't know how it works in USA, but can someone cast "Republican ballot"  with Clinton+Rubio?

Yes, splitting tickets is legal and used to be very common

[Brittain33]

It's unclear how much of this is population growth. You have Trump-loving Sumter County (The Villages) and the Puerto Rican Diaspora in Osceola County with higher turnout, but they're both also growing quickly in population.

Also, you can see where Matthew hit.

Some polls are showing Trump trailing Rubio by 10-12%. I don't know how it works in USA, but can someone cast "Republican ballot"  with Clinton+Rubio?

Yes, splitting tickets is legal and used to be very common

The ballot is defined by party registration. Some small number of those Democratic ballots are "Trump-Rubio" and I'm sure some of the Republican ballots from Miami-Dade are Clinton-Rubio!

[dspNY]

In general elections there are no "Democratic" or "Republican ballots. There are just election ballots. The only time you have a "Democratic" or "Republican" ballot is in a closed or semi-closed primary

[Erich Maria Remarque]

It's unclear how much of this is population growth. You have Trump-loving Sumter County (The Villages) and the Puerto Rican Diaspora in Osceola County with higher turnout, but they're both also growing quickly in population.

Also, you can see where Matthew hit.

Some polls are showing Trump trailing Rubio by 10-12%. I don't know how it works in USA, but can someone cast "Republican ballot"  with Clinton+Rubio?

Yes, splitting tickets is legal and used to be very common

Then the image above is bad news for Trump. I think, it will be more latino (R) Clinton+Rubio votes this year than usually...

[dspNY]

Iowa absentee ballot update (10/19)

Ballot requests:

DEM: 174,256
GOP: 144,495
IND: 84,118
Other: 1,078

Ballots cast:

DEM: 106,506
GOP: 68,228
IND: 40,619
Other: 538

Dems go up almost 1000 in ballot requests from yesterday and about 300 in votes cast. Modest improvement in votes cast, nice improvement in ballot requests, now close to 30K ahead. Still a lot of work to do to get to Obama's 2012 margin but getting close to it is doable.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 2,305,505 votes so far or 5.0% of the 2012 early vote.

[HillOfANight]

In 4 days, Dems have moved to a tie in FL and narrowed the gap in GA a lot. Narrow movement in the other states.

[ApatheticAustrian]

that early republican edge in PA is "normal" i guess?

[BoAtlantis]

that early republican edge in PA is "normal" i guess?

I believe PA is excuse-required absentee ballots only so if I had to guess, it probably skews elderly.

[Devout Centrist]

I just voted via mail-in ballot.