The absentee/early vote thread

[Devout Centrist]

Wow. That's fantastic.

[ApatheticAustrian]

is there any practical reason for the nevada dent?

[BoAtlantis]

In 4 days, Dems have moved to a tie in FL and narrowed the gap in GA a lot. Narrow movement in the other states.

Trending more Republican the last couple of days. One exception is NV.

Could it be that the "undecided" closet Trump leaners sent in their ballots after watching the 3rd debate?

[dspNY]

Florida VBM stats, 10/21

Ballots still outstanding:

DEM: 823,824
GOP: 818,279
IND: 412,207
Other: 50,471

Ballots cast:

GOP: 416,860
DEM: 399,508
IND: 154,713
Other: 26,215

Florida will pass the million mark in votes cast tomorrow (they're at 997K now)

[dspNY]

Iowa absentee ballot stats 10/21

Ballots requested:

DEM: 190,229
GOP: 155,417
IND: 93,140
Other: 1,211

Dems have gained almost 3,000 on the GOP since yesterday.

Ballots cast:

DEM: 114,737
GOP: 75,782
IND: 44,732
Other: 598

Dems have gained almost 700 since yesterday and now lead by about 39K. I think the magic # for Clinton is a 50K margin going into election day to win

[HillOfANight]

My guess is that the true believers are coming out for Trump with in person voting, but it should revert to traditional trends of Democrats dominating early voting. TargetSmart's #s look weird/outdated for North Carolina, unless they think white Dems are Republicans this year...

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/789477974353518592
Registered Republicans were only 24% of 1st day in person voters.

[Gass3268]

Iowa absentee ballot stats 10/21

Ballots requested:

DEM: 190,229
GOP: 155,417
IND: 93,140
Other: 1,211

Dems have gained almost 3,000 on the GOP since yesterday.

Ballots cast:

DEM: 114,737
GOP: 75,782
IND: 44,732
Other: 598

Dems have gained almost 700 since yesterday and now lead by about 39K. I think the magic # for Clinton is a 50K margin going into election day to win

These gains make sense with the rumblings reported by the media that both campaigns think Iowa has shifted toward Hillary recently.

[dspNY]

My guess is that the true believers are coming out for Trump with in person voting, but it should revert to traditional trends of Democrats dominating early voting. TargetSmart's #s look weird/outdated for North Carolina, unless they think white Dems are Republicans this year...

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/789477974353518592
Registered Republicans were only 24% of 1st day in person voters.

That's probably worse for them than 2012, and we still have Souls to the Polls to expand the advantage. In Iowa, the best analyst is Pat Rynard (the Iowa Starting Line guy). He recently posted that the Democrats are recovering their position and starting to impose their will in the ground game after falling behind early.

[BoAtlantis]

My guess is that the true believers are coming out for Trump with in person voting, but it should revert to traditional trends of Democrats dominating early voting. TargetSmart's #s look weird/outdated for North Carolina, unless they think white Dems are Republicans this year...

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/789477974353518592
Registered Republicans were only 24% of 1st day in person voters.

That's probably worse for them than 2012, and we still have Souls to the Polls to expand the advantage. In Iowa, the best analyst is Pat Rynard (the Iowa Starting Line guy). He recently posted that the Democrats are recovering their position and starting to impose their will in the ground game after falling behind early.

You may be right.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

My guess is that the true believers are coming out for Trump with in person voting, but it should revert to traditional trends of Democrats dominating early voting. TargetSmart's #s look weird/outdated for North Carolina, unless they think white Dems are Republicans this year...

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/789477974353518592
Registered Republicans were only 24% of 1st day in person voters.

That's probably worse for them than 2012, and we still have Souls to the Polls to expand the advantage. In Iowa, the best analyst is Pat Rynard (the Iowa Starting Line guy). He recently posted that the Democrats are recovering their position and starting to impose their will in the ground game after falling behind early.

It is not about ground-game lol. Trump is trailing in polls. What analysis do you need? Or did you think that trend in polls was not real?

[pppolitics]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/21/in-several-key-states-the-early-vote-has-shifted-heavily-to-the-democrats-since-2012/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_earlyvote-910a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

[heatcharger]

Wtf happened in Florida in 2008?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nevada is unsettling.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Outside of Nev(Which Obama won in 2008) and maybe slightly in Iowa...The signs point to a huge Clinton advantage.

[Hydera]

Wtf happened in Florida in 2008?

Prior to the debates and the bulk of the GFC starting around the Lehman collapse on September 15. McCain held a 5% margin according to RCP.




So some disgruntled Hillary primary votes along with the upset of many voters on jokes about McCain's age and Obama ignoring the state because of McCain's poll lead at the time i think a lot of absentee ballots were sent that came from republicans.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html

It took the Financial crisis starting and the debates to make a huge shift in opinion by November.


But look on the brightside. the 2008/2012 early vote had the GOP leading the absentee votes by 25% and now its in the 1-3%.

[HillOfANight]

Nevada is unsettling.

In person voting starts there Saturday. Watch for a huge swing.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Nevada is unsettling.

In person voting starts there Saturday. Watch for a huge swing.

Did it start earlier in 2012?

[Crumpets]

My ballot just arrived! I'll probably fill it out and mail it in tomorrow.

[dspNY]

Nevada is unsettling.

The Dems built an 89K voter registration edge in the state. In person early voting starts tomorrow. I think we'll be OK in Nevada

[Seriously?]

I wouldn't take much of the numbers in NC and FL showing a shift vs. same time out in 2012 seriously right now. You had a major disruption due to the hurricane in more Republican parts of the state. More likely than not, there will be more late arrivers in those areas.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Nevada is unsettling.

In person voting starts there Saturday. Watch for a huge swing.

Did it start earlier in 2012?

2016: October 22, 17 days

2012: October 20, 17 days

[dspNY]

A few other states and CDs

Colorado ballots cast

DEM: 22,605 (43.9%)
GOP: 15,680 (30.5%)
IND: 12,410 (24.1%)
Other: 770 (1.5%)

Maine-2 ballots cast

DEM: 10,932 (46.0%)
GOP: 6,490 (27.3%)
IND: 5,631 (23.7%)
Other: 725 (3.0%)

These numbers indicate that Clinton has recovered well in Maine-2 and is likely being under-polled there.

Nebraska (statewide)

GOP: 65,823 (43.5%)
DEM: 61,611 (40.7%)
IND: 23,117 (15.3%)
Other: 880 (0.6%)

The Nebraska early vote numbers indicate that Clinton is doing very well in Nebraska-2

[Gass3268]

45% increase in Latino VBM in California!

[Lief 🗽]

45% increase in Latino VBM in California!

RIP Darrell Issa

[Antonio the Sixth]

45% increase in Latino VBM in California!

I REALLY hope we'll see those kinds of numbers in NV and AZ too. Time has come for the Great Latino Surge.