The absentee/early vote thread
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Author Topic: The absentee/early vote thread  (Read 169988 times)
Ogre Mage
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« Reply #575 on: October 22, 2016, 06:49:12 AM »
« edited: October 22, 2016, 06:55:23 AM by Ogre Mage »

Politico:  early voting shows upsurge of women

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http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/early-voting-women-battleground-states-230176#ixzz4NmH8mlfp
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #576 on: October 22, 2016, 07:04:06 AM »


Lovely.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #577 on: October 22, 2016, 07:26:45 AM »


Such nasty women.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #578 on: October 22, 2016, 07:42:13 AM »

Just a note:

In the Austrian Presidential runoff, a record number of postal ballots was requested (ca. 900.000) and the left-wing candidate won 2/3 of them (incl. my vote).

Yet on election day, the far-right populist candidate won the precinct vote by 52-48 (precinct votes were 85% of the total vote, postal votes were around 15%).

Overall, the result was about 50-50 in the end.

So, despite Dems doing well with the early vote it means nothing about how the overall vote will end up, as Trump's voters are the ones who will most likely vote strongly on election day - rather than early by postal ballot.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #579 on: October 22, 2016, 07:46:27 AM »

Just a note:

In the Austrian Presidential runoff, a record number of postal ballots was requested (ca. 900.000) and the left-wing candidate won 2/3 of them (incl. my vote).

Yet on election day, the far-right populist candidate won the precinct vote by 52-48 (precinct votes were 85% of the total vote, postal votes were around 15%).

Overall, the result was about 50-50 in the end.

So, despite Dems doing well with the early vote it means nothing about how the overall vote will end up, as Trump's voters are the ones who will most likely vote strongly on election day - rather than early by postal ballot.

America is not Austria.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #580 on: October 22, 2016, 07:52:21 AM »

Just a note:

In the Austrian Presidential runoff, a record number of postal ballots was requested (ca. 900.000) and the left-wing candidate won 2/3 of them (incl. my vote).

Yet on election day, the far-right populist candidate won the precinct vote by 52-48 (precinct votes were 85% of the total vote, postal votes were around 15%).

Overall, the result was about 50-50 in the end.

So, despite Dems doing well with the early vote it means nothing about how the overall vote will end up, as Trump's voters are the ones who will most likely vote strongly on election day - rather than early by postal ballot.

You dont have to constantly downplay Hillary's chances. Sometimes evidence dictates she's just doing well.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #581 on: October 22, 2016, 07:52:29 AM »

Just a note:

In the Austrian Presidential runoff, a record number of postal ballots was requested (ca. 900.000) and the left-wing candidate won 2/3 of them (incl. my vote).

Yet on election day, the far-right populist candidate won the precinct vote by 52-48 (precinct votes were 85% of the total vote, postal votes were around 15%).

Overall, the result was about 50-50 in the end.

So, despite Dems doing well with the early vote it means nothing about how the overall vote will end up, as Trump's voters are the ones who will most likely vote strongly on election day - rather than early by postal ballot.

America is not Austria.

True, but it doesn't help to interpret a lot into these tiny good early voting numbers for the Dems, when Trump voters could turn out heavily on election day. Because the early vote and election day vote could be apples and oranges.

On the other hand, if all vote-by-mail states (such as CO) show a significant Democratic advantage a day before election day (when 95% of CO ballots have been mailed back already), then there's reason to believe Trump will be heavily defeated (yet we still don't know how Indys voted) ...
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #582 on: October 22, 2016, 07:58:05 AM »

in fact, without the strong increase of postal ballots, the right-wing candidate would have won.

usually...in austria...some sub-groups (student's/educated persons/the elderly) of the electorate vote much more often with postal ballots than other groups = the increase of postal ballots has been a sign that the green candidate would do better with those voters than usual.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #583 on: October 22, 2016, 08:00:35 AM »

Absentee vote up 63.33% in Nothern Virginia, down 0.4% in the rest of the state
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #584 on: October 22, 2016, 08:06:58 AM »

in fact, without the strong increase of postal ballots, the right-wing candidate would have won.

usually...in austria...some sub-groups (student's/educated persons/the elderly) of the electorate vote much more often with postal ballots than other groups = the increase of postal ballots has been a sign that the green candidate would do better with those voters than usual.

But you cannot argue that the increase in postal ballots was responsible for the left-wing candidate's win. This argument is as bad as the FPÖ's (= far-right wingers) wishes that abolishing the postal vote would help them electorally ... => if the postal vote is abolished, postal-voting people would simply go back to precinct voting instead (and don't tell me they wouldn't, because they have no time on a Sunday).
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #585 on: October 22, 2016, 08:17:33 AM »

Just a note:

In the Austrian Presidential runoff, a record number of postal ballots was requested (ca. 900.000) and the left-wing candidate won 2/3 of them (incl. my vote).

Yet on election day, the far-right populist candidate won the precinct vote by 52-48 (precinct votes were 85% of the total vote, postal votes were around 15%).

Overall, the result was about 50-50 in the end.

So, despite Dems doing well with the early vote it means nothing about how the overall vote will end up, as Trump's voters are the ones who will most likely vote strongly on election day - rather than early by postal ballot.

America is not Austria.

True, but it doesn't help to interpret a lot into these tiny good early voting numbers for the Dems, when Trump voters could turn out heavily on election day. Because the early vote and election day vote could be apples and oranges.

On the other hand, if all vote-by-mail states (such as CO) show a significant Democratic advantage a day before election day (when 95% of CO ballots have been mailed back already), then there's reason to believe Trump will be heavily defeated (yet we still don't know how Indys voted) ...
Alright, but still, America is not Austria.  Election day of course is going to skew Republican, everyone knows this.  You can still look at the trends however when it comes to enthusiasm.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #586 on: October 22, 2016, 08:23:10 AM »

The trends in early voting pretty much agree with the recent polls, so I don't really see any reasons to question them. First, when they don't, we can make some hyphothesis to explain it.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #587 on: October 22, 2016, 08:49:12 AM »

But you cannot argue that the increase in postal ballots was responsible for the left-wing candidate's win. This argument is as bad as the FPÖ's (= far-right wingers) wishes that abolishing the postal vote would help them electorally ... => if the postal vote is abolished, postal-voting people would simply go back to precinct voting instead (and don't tell me they wouldn't, because they have no time on a Sunday).

2 things....

1) if you would forbid some ways of voting you would for sure disenfranchise some voters.

2) more important:

the green candidate won the first runoff election cause he did better with those voting blocs who vote through postal ballots than other green/left-wing-candidates.

in general early voting in the US seems to be a tool with big-D democratic advantage - but i would guess that the college-educated and elderly also voted before in a higher margin before election day.

white, angry men, the key target group of mister trump, internationally prefers to vote in-person on election day.

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dspNY
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« Reply #588 on: October 22, 2016, 09:14:23 AM »

Florida VBM stats (10/22)

Ballots requested/still outstanding:

DEM: 790,749
GOP: 780,168
IND: 402,220
Other: 48,620

Ballots cast:

GOP: 463,959 (41.8%)
DEM: 443,502 (40.0%)
IND: 172,753 (15.6%)
Other: 28,901 (2.6%)

Overall advantage for the GOP in ballots cast is now 20,457. Overall advantage for the GOP in ballots cast + ballots requested is down to a four digit margin: 9,876. However, as the number of ballots requested turn into votes, the actual vote count becomes more important
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #589 on: October 22, 2016, 09:15:37 AM »

https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/789824761576599552

North Carolina Early Vote and Absentee Vote is 6% less black than 2012.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #590 on: October 22, 2016, 09:19:01 AM »


This is what happens when you pass voter supression laws. Hopefully things improve when more stations open up.
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dspNY
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« Reply #591 on: October 22, 2016, 09:19:05 AM »


Far fewer polling places open in African-American neighborhoods this time than last time. That will pick up as more polling places open
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Virginiá
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« Reply #592 on: October 22, 2016, 09:22:28 AM »

On the other hand, if all vote-by-mail states (such as CO) show a significant Democratic advantage a day before election day (when 95% of CO ballots have been mailed back already), then there's reason to believe Trump will be heavily defeated (yet we still don't know how Indys voted) ...

Colorado still has in-person voting, but because of the all-mail system they reduced the number of polling stations. I can't find the source, so I could be wrong, but I recall reading a year ago that a majority of voters didn't vote by mail in 2014 (but I imagine that will pick up as more people become comfortable with the process)

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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #593 on: October 22, 2016, 09:25:43 AM »

just read on wikipedia (yeah, yeah, i know) that obama has had a lead of about 100k votes before election day 2012 in florida....guess regarding how close 2012 has been in florida, the dems need a similar margin again.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #594 on: October 22, 2016, 09:35:35 AM »

Just a note:

In the Austrian Presidential runoff, a record number of postal ballots was requested (ca. 900.000) and the left-wing candidate won 2/3 of them (incl. my vote).

Yet on election day, the far-right populist candidate won the precinct vote by 52-48 (precinct votes were 85% of the total vote, postal votes were around 15%).

Overall, the result was about 50-50 in the end.

So, despite Dems doing well with the early vote it means nothing about how the overall vote will end up, as Trump's voters are the ones who will most likely vote strongly on election day - rather than early by postal ballot.

It also has to be put in context with polls. In 2014, Democrats were expected to lose the senate and only got false hope from the early signs but got crushed anyway.

This year seems to dovetail nicely with the polls with IA and OH requests being down, which are confirmed by polls to be Trump's strongest swing states; Republicans' requests being down in NC, which seems to confirm that Hillary is leading him there.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #595 on: October 22, 2016, 09:51:27 AM »

Austria has multiple parties and there was zero historical precedent for predicting a Green - Far Right runoff.

In the U.S., we have at least two recent elections with early voting with the same parties that can provide a basis for comparison.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #596 on: October 22, 2016, 10:12:06 AM »

Austria has multiple parties and there was zero historical precedent for predicting a Green - Far Right runoff.

In the U.S., we have at least two recent elections with early voting with the same parties that can provide a basis for comparison.

But muh dogsweat ™
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Gass3268
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« Reply #597 on: October 22, 2016, 10:33:04 AM »

Mr. Nevada, Jon Ralston, is doing a live blog on the first day of in-person early voting in Nevada.
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Hydera
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« Reply #598 on: October 22, 2016, 10:48:02 AM »

Back to the Virginia early votes.

http://www.vpap.org/visualizations/early-voting

63.3% Increase in Nova. Followed by a 10% increase in SouthWest Virginia.

However out of the 88,618 votes cast. 16,935 were new votes from NoVA. But only 367 new votes from SouthWest Virginia.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #599 on: October 22, 2016, 10:51:56 AM »

Too early to bust this out?

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