The absentee/early vote thread

[ApatheticAustrian]

Remember, these tweets were sent 2 hours before the polls closed.  So more are going to vote.

i meant didn't decrease anyway, just a typo.

as long as nevada-indies don't suddenly break haaaaaard for trump, this is great news.

[dspNY]

Ralston: Dems with 1,800 voter advantage on the first day of early voting in Washoe (the swing county in NV). About 4800 Dems to 3000 Repubs

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/790009366321639424

[ApatheticAustrian]

drip drip drip

gop turnout down in swing country with republican reg. edge in NV


More democrats than republicans voted today in @washoecounty. Dems=4,809. Reps=3,078
https://twitter.com/Colinlygren/status/790006894307848192


9,429 people voted today in @washoecounty. That's just 18 more people than the first day of early voting in the 2012 General Election (9411)
https://twitter.com/Colinlygren/status/790005513371185156

[dspNY]

drip drip drip

gop turnout down in swing country with republican reg. edge in NV


More democrats than republicans voted today in @washoecounty. Dems=4,809. Reps=3,078
https://twitter.com/Colinlygren/status/790006894307848192


9,429 people voted today in @washoecounty. That's just 18 more people than the first day of early voting in the 2012 General Election (9411)
https://twitter.com/Colinlygren/status/790005513371185156

That indicates Republican disillusionment in NV, at least in the early going. Washoe is a fast-growing county with a slight GOP voter registration edge. Clark County's 1st day turnout will be much larger than 2012, even with the population growth taken into account

[Antonio the Sixth]

Great news! Keep it up, Dems!

Are there stats on the race/ethnicity of early voters as well?

[Holmes]

Bad first day of early voting for Republicans in Nevada. Nearly two thirds of votes in the state are early votes so Clinton may have the state won before election day if this pattern holds.

[ApatheticAustrian]

first day is surely too early for assumptions but if dems are more energized to vote than reps, it's telling...and a total turnaround to the major narrative of this campaign.

[Gass3268]

More on Washoe:

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[Antonio the Sixth]

More on Washoe:

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DOMINATING

[Lief 🗽]

lol @ the people who ever though Nevada was anything but Safe D.

[BoAtlantis]

Glad to hear strong numbers from NV

As for OH, it seems that Hillary's team is optimistic about the state.

http://m.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/22/1585592/-Some-Good-Initial-Signs-from-Ohio-Early-Voting-for-Clinton

"Although the total # of absentee ballot requests in OH is down from 2012, a greater proportion of those requests are coming from the 5 big Dem counties (Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Montgomery and Summit).  Dems have thus far increased their advantage in returned ballots as compared to 2012.

More people voted during in person early voting in the first 4 days than over a similar period in 2012 (Hillary stated this in her speech in Cleveland), particularly in Hamilton County (Cincinnati) and Franklin County (Columbus). The campaign is expecting that the total vote and margin in those 2 counties will exceed Obama’s margins in 2012."

[Speed of Sound]

That's awesome from NV!

As for OH, I thought the news so far had been pretty sour. Again, I'm terrible at deciphering early voting trends etc. Is there anything to what Bo just posted?

[ApatheticAustrian]

don't think anyone can decipher OH right now.

as far as i have read, much easier for "smaller" states or states with a bigger early-vote tradition......so VA/NC/FL/NV can be followed easier.

[Hydera]

lol @ the people who ever though Nevada was anything but Safe D.

It should be safe D but the forum is a bit reserved because the polls doesnt show a good enough lead which is because spanish speaking households have bad response rates to polls.

[Ljube]

lol @ the people who ever though Nevada was anything but Safe D.

It should be safe D but the forum is a bit reserved because the polls doesnt show a good enough lead which is because spanish speaking households have bad response rates to polls.

No longer reserved. Safe D.

[Xing]

lol @ the people who ever though Nevada was anything but Safe D.

Yep, that's what I've been telling people from the start.

[Eraserhead]

Trump's mob buddies better start cracking skulls in NV.

[Minnesota Mike]

Nevada Day 1 as of 11:30 PM (some smaller counties have not reported yet):

http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4531

In Person

Dem 27,309 (52.79%)
Rep 15,313 (29.60%)
Other 9,113 (17.61%)

Absentee's

Dem 13,708 (42.79%)
Rep 12,293 (38.37%)
Other 6,038 (18.85%)

Total

Dem 41,017 (48.96%)
Rep  27,606 (32.95%)
Other 15,151 (18.09%)

[Ebsy]

If day one numbers hold through the week, Democratic vote share would be up 5 points from 2012 in Clark County, just under 50% to just under 55%.

[dspNY]

Florida VBM 10/23 (last day before in-person early voting begins)

Ballots outstanding/remaining

DEM: 767,354
GOP: 751,791
IND: 394,468
Other: 46,836

Ballots cast

GOP: 496,040 (41.7%)
DEM: 476,292 (40.1%)
IND: 185,369 (15.6%)
Other: 31,039 (2.6%)

The GOP leads by 19,748, with one more county needing to update (Volusia)

Combined, the Republicans lead by 4,185 ballots out of 3.15 million ballots sent/cast right before in-person early voting begins

[HillOfANight]

Georgia early vote demographics (10/20)

White: 270,554 (62.5%)
African-American: 122,660 (28.4%)
Hispanic: 4,124 (1.0%)
Other: 7,058 (1.6%)
Unknown: 28,217 (6.5%)

Michael hasn't tweeted yet, but I checked his spreadsheet and it's a bit concerning... Since 10/20, whites are down 0.1%, blacks down 1.2%, other up 0.4%, unknown up 0.8%.

White: 403,067 - 62.4%
Black: 175,732   - 27.2%
Hispanic: 6,752   - 1%
Other: 12,896 - 2%
Unknown: 47,264 - 7.3%

Total: 645,711

[JerryArkansas]

Georgia early vote demographics (10/20)

White: 270,554 (62.5%)
African-American: 122,660 (28.4%)
Hispanic: 4,124 (1.0%)
Other: 7,058 (1.6%)
Unknown: 28,217 (6.5%)

Michael hasn't tweeted yet, but I checked his spreadsheet and it's a bit concerning... Since 10/20, whites are down 0.1%, blacks down 1.2%, other up 0.4%, unknown up 0.8%.

White: 403,067 - 62.4%
Black: 175,732   - 27.2%
Hispanic: 6,752   - 1%
Other: 12,896 - 2%
Unknown: 47,264 - 7.3%

Total: 645,711

I wouldn't be too concerned as of yet.  IIRC Griffin said that many people who were registered under unknown were African Americans who were not able to or haven't changed the designation.  I could be remembering wrong though, so just better ask him.

[Gass3268]

Jon Ralston:

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[HillOfANight]

Georgia early vote demographics (10/20)

White: 270,554 (62.5%)
African-American: 122,660 (28.4%)
Hispanic: 4,124 (1.0%)
Other: 7,058 (1.6%)
Unknown: 28,217 (6.5%)

Michael hasn't tweeted yet, but I checked his spreadsheet and it's a bit concerning... Since 10/20, whites are down 0.1%, blacks down 1.2%, other up 0.4%, unknown up 0.8%.

White: 403,067 - 62.4%
Black: 175,732   - 27.2%
Hispanic: 6,752   - 1%
Other: 12,896 - 2%
Unknown: 47,264 - 7.3%

Total: 645,711

I wouldn't be too concerned as of yet.  IIRC Griffin said that many people who were registered under unknown were African Americans who were not able to or haven't changed the designation.  I could be remembering wrong though, so just better ask him.

http://www.peachpundit.com/2014/10/30/examination-voting-history-shows-changing-demographics-affect-2014-elections/#comment-392573
Mark Rountree (Landmark pollster) has said his research shows unknown to be 2/3 minority. Still, odd that weekend voting and blacks declined. Maybe expanded early voting 10/29 will flip the numbers.

[The Other Castro]

Jon Ralston:

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In comparison to 2012's first day of NV early vote:

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https://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/democrats-massacre-republicans-first-day-early-voting-urban-areas