The absentee/early vote thread

[dspNY]

Georgia early vote demographics (10/20)

White: 270,554 (62.5%)
African-American: 122,660 (28.4%)
Hispanic: 4,124 (1.0%)
Other: 7,058 (1.6%)
Unknown: 28,217 (6.5%)

Michael hasn't tweeted yet, but I checked his spreadsheet and it's a bit concerning... Since 10/20, whites are down 0.1%, blacks down 1.2%, other up 0.4%, unknown up 0.8%.

White: 403,067 - 62.4%
Black: 175,732   - 27.2%
Hispanic: 6,752   - 1%
Other: 12,896 - 2%
Unknown: 47,264 - 7.3%

Total: 645,711

I wouldn't be too concerned as of yet.  IIRC Griffin said that many people who were registered under unknown were African Americans who were not able to or haven't changed the designation.  I could be remembering wrong though, so just better ask him.

http://www.peachpundit.com/2014/10/30/examination-voting-history-shows-changing-demographics-affect-2014-elections/#comment-392573
Mark Rountree (Landmark pollster) has said his research shows unknown to be 2/3 minority. Still, odd that weekend voting and blacks declined. Maybe expanded early voting 10/29 will flip the numbers.

So the real demographic numbers are something like 64% white, 30% African-American, and 5% other

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/790204516515799041

"Dems have a 13,500 raw vote lead statewide after the first day of early/mail voting in Nevada:
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4531 …
Full post coming."

[Landslide Lyndon]

Not exactly an early voting post but...
As Kyle Kondik mentioned on twitter California Republicans are probably facing a downballot disaster. The presidential election is uncompetitive, the senate election is between two Democrats, throw in Trump's meltdown and that means that Republican voters have almost zero motivation to go to the polls. Bad news for Issa, Knight and perhaps many other congressmen.

[Virginiá]

Not exactly an early voting post but...
As Kyle Kondik mentioned on twitter California Republicans are probably facing a downballot disaster. The presidential election is uncompetitive, the senate election is between two Democrats, throw in Trump's meltdown and that means that Republican voters have almost zero motivation to go to the polls. Bad news for Issa, Knight and perhaps many other congressmen.

Not to mention the state legislature. Democrats could really have a shot at a comfortable supermajority if it does indeed turn out to be hell on earth for the CA GOP. That would essentially seal their fate as nothing but a inland rump party.

[Speed of Sound]

A graph of the numbers on white voters' early voting in NC, per Michael Bitzer:

[Hydera]

http://www.electproject.org/early_2016


North Carolina looks very promising. 44.2% Dem vs 30.1% GOP.

For West Virginia even though democrats lead, lots of democrats have not been voted for a Democrat in the presidential ballot for years.

[HillOfANight]

Georgia early vote demographics (10/20)

White: 270,554 (62.5%)
African-American: 122,660 (28.4%)
Hispanic: 4,124 (1.0%)
Other: 7,058 (1.6%)
Unknown: 28,217 (6.5%)

Michael hasn't tweeted yet, but I checked his spreadsheet and it's a bit concerning... Since 10/20, whites are down 0.1%, blacks down 1.2%, other up 0.4%, unknown up 0.8%.

White: 403,067 - 62.4%
Black: 175,732   - 27.2%
Hispanic: 6,752   - 1%
Other: 12,896 - 2%
Unknown: 47,264 - 7.3%

Total: 645,711

I wouldn't be too concerned as of yet.  IIRC Griffin said that many people who were registered under unknown were African Americans who were not able to or haven't changed the designation.  I could be remembering wrong though, so just better ask him.

http://www.peachpundit.com/2014/10/30/examination-voting-history-shows-changing-demographics-affect-2014-elections/#comment-392573
Mark Rountree (Landmark pollster) has said his research shows unknown to be 2/3 minority. Still, odd that weekend voting and blacks declined. Maybe expanded early voting 10/29 will flip the numbers.

So the real demographic numbers are something like 64% white, 30% African-American, and 5% other

http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/10/georgia-black-turnout-on-record-pace-147409
http://gapundit.com/2014/08/26/2010-and-2012-general-election-voter-turnout-by-race/
In 2012, late October, blacks were 33% of early voting, and including final election day turnout, ended up at 30%.

http://www.electproject.org/2008_early_vote
In 2008, blacks were 34.9% of early voting (ended up ~30% of overall turnout).

So unless she starts polling really well with whites, the black turnout needs to increase a lot.

[republicanx]

http://www.electproject.org/early_2016


North Carolina looks very promising. 44.2% Dem vs 30.1% GOP.

For West Virginia even though democrats lead, lots of democrats have not been voted for a Democrat in the presidential ballot for years.

80k lead, coming into election day they had 162 lead. when does early voting stop in nc?

[Ebsy]

I don't think it is terribly useful to compare race numbers from now back to 2012 because the share of "unknown" has grown so much, especially in heavily black counties.

[HillOfANight]

Well I downloaded the Georgia absentee files and learned that Clayton, Bibb, Richmond, Rockdale, etc. (heavily Black/Obama counties) don't have weekend voting until October 29, so that definitely explains a lot...

[dspNY]

Well I downloaded the Georgia absentee files and learned that Clayton, Bibb, Richmond, Rockdale, etc. (heavily Black/Obama counties) don't have weekend voting until October 29, so that definitely explains a lot...

Voter suppression

Were they open for the entire early voting window in 2012? That's the question for comparison purposes. We have clear data showing NC's attempt to suppress the African-American vote

[HillOfANight]

Not sure exactly. Those areas are probably controlled by Democrats.

On the plus side, just checking Clayton (Obama 85 Romney 15), they'll have Sunday voting October 30th.

Fulton (64 Obama 35 Romney) is also voting this Sunday and next, and Dekalb (78 Obama 21 Romney) in a few places on 10/30 (Sunday).

[HillOfANight]

Ok his spreadsheet now says "Counting all returned ballots as mail ballots, including in-person. Will fix."

[psychprofessor]

Florida absentees capturing a Latino surge:

daniel a. smith
daniel a. smith –  ‏@electionsmith

Absentee ballots cast in 2012 GE at this time, 80% by Whites, 9% by Hispanics, 8% by blacks. Thru 10/22/2016, the %s are:
76% W
12% H
8% B

[Dr. Arch]

Florida absentees capturing a Latino surge:

daniel a. smith
daniel a. smith –  ‏@electionsmith

Absentee ballots cast in 2012 GE at this time, 80% by Whites, 9% by Hispanics, 8% by blacks. Thru 10/22/2016, the %s are:
76% W
12% H
8% B

I've been saying this for months, but pollsters have underestimated the tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of Puerto Ricans who moved to Florida in the last 4 years.

[Speed of Sound]

Crossed the 5 million votes cast mark!

https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/790286401598205952

[Minnesota Mike]

Nevada Elections ‏@NVElect  51m51 minutes ago
There was an error in reporting Washoe mail/absentee ballot returns. The corrected info can be found here: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4537 ….

Reps take a small lead in absentees but Dems dominating in In Person WEarly Voting.

[OneJ]

Speaking of Black turnout, what are the numbers looking like so far because I heard that it was still high anyway?

[Ebsy]

Nevada Elections ‏@NVElect  51m51 minutes ago
There was an error in reporting Washoe mail/absentee ballot returns. The corrected info can be found here: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4537 ….

Reps take a small lead in absentees but Dems dominating in In Person WEarly Voting.

I think the final breakdown for Nevada voting in 2012 was about 61% in person early voting, 8.5%  mail-in/absentee and 30.5% election day. Democrats won the early vote in a romp and eleciton day narrowly while Republicans won absentee ballots narrowly.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Speaking of Black turnout, what are the numbers looking like so far because I heard that it was still high anyway?

about the same in GA and a little bit down in NC but that comparison is unfair cause of the decrease of early polling stations.

[OneJ]

Speaking of Black turnout, what are the numbers looking like so far because I heard that it was still high anyway?

about the same in GA and a little bit down in NC but that comparison is unfair cause of the decrease of early polling stations.

That sounds good despite obvious voter suppression.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

An Noticeable Trend in Comparing 2012 to 2016 Cumulative NC Absentee Voting by Old North State Politics

Election Update: Trump May Depress Republican Turnout, Spelling Disaster For The GOP by 538, Nate Silver

[ApatheticAustrian]

Nevada:

22,000 people had voted in Clark County by 3 PM. Looks as if total will be bigger than 26,000 on second day in 2012.
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/790321227139125248


NC and FL:


Republican Lead in Two Early Voting States Will Be Tested
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/republican-lead-two-early-voting-states-will-be-tested-n671396

 At first glance, these numbers look promising for Republicans. However, Republicans in Florida and North Carolina did much better with mail in absentee ballot voting than in person voting. The 2016 early voting numbers reported here include only mail in absentee early votes in both states.

One way to benchmark the current 2016 early voting numbers in Florida and North Carolina is to break out the early vote from 2012 by early voting method. This break out allows for a comparison of mail in absentee voting versus in person voting in both states. In 2012, Republicans in Florida cast 3 percent more ballots than Democrats by absentee mail in voting. Results in Florida so far in 2016 show very similar results for mail in voting with Republican down 1 percent compared to Democrats from the 2012 numbers.

North Carolina, however, shows that Democrats are significantly outperforming their 2012 mail in absentee voting numbers. In 2012, Republicans held a 22 percent advantage over Democrats in mail absentee ballots cast. The Republican advantage currently is only 5 percent - a net drop of 17 percentage points from the final 2012 mail in voting numbers.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Democrats now lead in NV by about 12000 votes. (combined early-in-voting and the small rep-lead with absentees)

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/790350942805725185

[Holmes]

Yeah, Hillary won Nevada. We're seeing it happen over the span of 17 days.