The absentee/early vote thread

[The Other Castro]

Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti  2m2 minutes ago
Even more Team HRC cheering of early vote #s: they note there's been a *99%* increase in Latino voting in FL compared to this point in '12

Are we sure this isn't a typo? I mean how could it be possible?

It doesn't surprise me to this end. Trump is just that toxic.

Gabriel Debenedetti added that Joe Arpaio's reelection race could also be contributing to the excitement (Maricopa County).

[HillOfANight]

Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti  2m2 minutes ago
Even more Team HRC cheering of early vote #s: they note there's been a *99%* increase in Latino voting in FL compared to this point in '12

Are we sure this isn't a typo? I mean how could it be possible?

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/784107933411991555
They have been broadcasting this for weeks. Ground game.

I know that but for that number to be true it must mean that virtually zero Hispanics voted early in 2012.

Not really. Maybe 50k early voted before and now 100k have.

[Person Man]

How does this all compare to 2012?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti  32s33 seconds ago
And in Arizona, notes the Clinton camp, Democrats lead Republicans by ~1,000 ballots cast, compared to ~20,000 DEFICIT at this point in '12.

Wonderful.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti  2m2 minutes ago
Even more Team HRC cheering of early vote #s: they note there's been a *99%* increase in Latino voting in FL compared to this point in '12

Are we sure this isn't a typo? I mean how could it be possible?

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/784107933411991555
They have been broadcasting this for weeks. Ground game.

I know that but for that number to be true it must mean that virtually zero Hispanics voted early in 2012.

No.  Suppose 100 voted early in 2012.  If 199 voted early in 2016, that would be an increase of 99.  Divide this by the original number (100) and it's a 99% increase.

[IceSpear]

So does it seem the early voting tea leaves are lining up with the polling, more or less? I know Dems are lagging in IA/OH and improving in NC/AZ.

[Dr. Arch]

So does it seem the early voting tea leaves are lining up with the polling, more or less? I know Dems are lagging in IA/OH and improving in NC/AZ.

Yep, NC, NV, FL, etc. are looking great.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti  2m2 minutes ago
Even more Team HRC cheering of early vote #s: they note there's been a *99%* increase in Latino voting in FL compared to this point in '12

Are we sure this isn't a typo? I mean how could it be possible?

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/784107933411991555
They have been broadcasting this for weeks. Ground game.

I know that but for that number to be true it must mean that virtually zero Hispanics voted early in 2012.

No.  Suppose 100 voted early in 2012.  If 199 voted early in 2016, that would be an increase of 99.  Divide this by the original number (100) and it's a 99% increase.

Got it. Still, it's a startling number, especially considering that a few days ago California Democrats were delighted because the Latino early vote was up "only" 43%.

[BoAtlantis]

Busy day for TX

https://twitter.com/JMilesKHOU/status/790601122343858176

"Harris Co Clerk: 9000-10000 people voting, on average, per hour right now on 1st early voting day"

[Maxwell]

Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics  3m3 minutes ago
Per NBC's data, more than 6.5M Americans have already voted in '16 election. Here's partisan breakdown by battleground state

Before anyone freaks out PA, they have a pretty strict excuse absentee policy. Compared to Virginia where potential disruptions in public transportation is a legitimate excuse.

oh relax guys these are all TRUMP DEMS voting. We're still going to #MAGA folks!

[HillOfANight]

Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti  2m2 minutes ago
Even more Team HRC cheering of early vote #s: they note there's been a *99%* increase in Latino voting in FL compared to this point in '12

Are we sure this isn't a typo? I mean how could it be possible?

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/784107933411991555
They have been broadcasting this for weeks. Ground game.

I know that but for that number to be true it must mean that virtually zero Hispanics voted early in 2012.

No.  Suppose 100 voted early in 2012.  If 199 voted early in 2016, that would be an increase of 99.  Divide this by the original number (100) and it's a 99% increase.

Got it. Still, it's a startling number, especially considering that a few days ago California Democrats were delighted because the Latino early vote was up "only" 43%.

That's not a swing state where resources are being poured though. Also, the 99% is not completely organic. I read there's a law if you voted in 2014, you could request to automatically get mail ballots in the future.

http://www.news-journalonline.com/news/20160929/voting-early-record-number-of-florida-voters-request-absentee-ballots

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[OneJ]

Busy day for TX

https://twitter.com/JMilesKHOU/status/790601122343858176

"Harris Co Clerk: 9000-10000 people voting, on average, per hour right now on 1st early voting day"

Amazing!

[Maxwell]

Busy day for TX

https://twitter.com/JMilesKHOU/status/790601122343858176

"Harris Co Clerk: 9000-10000 people voting, on average, per hour right now on 1st early voting day"

Amazing!

that's terrifying news for The Donald - prior to this election Texas was noted for terrible voter turnout.

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/steveschale?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

"And in Duval County, FL, which hasn't voted for Dem for POTUS since 1976, Dems have a 1K vote lead on day 1 of early voting."

"Day 1 EV so far is +13 Dem.  
All EV/VBM so far is +7 Dem -- but definitely growing.
Countywide reg overall is +7 Dem."

He's talking about Hillsborough^

"Low propensity voters make up about 27% of FL Dem VBM so far. GOP about 21%. Total about +30K. Dems are expanding contrary to GOP narrative."

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/steveschale?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

"And in Duval County, FL, which hasn't voted for Dem for POTUS since 1976, Dems have a 1K vote lead on day 1 of early voting."

"Day 1 EV so far is +13 Dem.  
All EV/VBM so far is +7 Dem -- but definitely growing.
Countywide reg overall is +7 Dem."

He's talking about Hillsborough^

"Low propensity voters make up about 27% of FL Dem VBM so far. GOP about 21%. Total about +30K. Dems are expanding contrary to GOP narrative."

Yeah, he has access to more data than we do, which makes sense as the head of Obama's Florida campaign in 2008.

[dspNY]

Iowa absentee ballot stats, 10/24

Ballots requested:

DEM: 201,034
GOP: 162,170
IND: 100,109
Other: 1,306

Ballots cast:

DEM: 134,487
GOP: 94,519
IND: 56,032
Other: 746

Iowa Dems are now 39K ahead on ballot requests, an improvement of 3500 over the weekend, and are up 40K in ballots cast, up about 1500 from last Friday. Clinton has a long way to go to reach a 50K lead but she is slowly getting out of trouble here

[NOVA Green]

Busy day for TX

https://twitter.com/JMilesKHOU/status/790601122343858176

"Harris Co Clerk: 9000-10000 people voting, on average, per hour right now on 1st early voting day"

Amazing!

that's terrifying news for The Donald - prior to this election Texas was noted for terrible voter turnout.

Great news!

Harris county turnout and margins are key towards making this a close statewide race. I've been predicting a +10-15 Clinton margin in Harris for awhile, and with this level of turnout so far, it's not looking good for Da Donald down in Tejas.

[dspNY]

Busy day for TX

https://twitter.com/JMilesKHOU/status/790601122343858176

"Harris Co Clerk: 9000-10000 people voting, on average, per hour right now on 1st early voting day"

Amazing!

that's terrifying news for The Donald - prior to this election Texas was noted for terrible voter turnout.

Great news!

Harris county turnout and margins are key towards making this a close statewide race. I've been predicting a +10-15 Clinton margin in Harris for awhile, and with this level of turnout so far, it's not looking good for Da Donald down in Tejas.

That CBS News poll yesterday must have got around Texas political circles FAST! Maybe lots of infrequent or non voters with Dem sympathies believe their vote matters in a three point race

[The Other Castro]

Ryan Struyk ‏@ryanstruyk
At least 6,950,184 votes have been cast in the presidential election so far, per new @AP data out just now.


That looks like more than 1.4 million votes today alone, unless AP was just behind on a batch.

[mencken]

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Republican 503,632   
Democrat 483,019   
Other 31,507   
NPA 188,191

What's the official party line as for why this is happening?

[Gass3268]

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Republican 503,632   
Democrat 483,019   
Other 31,507   
NPA 188,191

What's the official party line as for why this is happening?

That's only the mail ballots, and Republicans were further ahead than that in 2012.

Yeah, Republicans are like 3% points behind 2012.

[IceSpear]

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Republican 503,632   
Democrat 483,019   
Other 31,507   
NPA 188,191

What's the official party line as for why this is happening?

Are you dense or something? It's all relative. That's like saying IA is solid D because they're ahead in raw early vote, even though they're underperforming 2012.

[The Other Castro]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  18m18 minutes ago
Another big day of voting in Clark: 23,000 had turned out by 3 PM. 30,000 turned out on Day 3 in 2012. Will be close to that, I'd think.

[mencken]

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Republican 503,632   
Democrat 483,019   
Other 31,507   
NPA 188,191

What's the official party line as for why this is happening?

Are you dense or something? It's all relative. That's like saying IA is solid D because they're ahead in raw early vote, even though they're underperforming 2012.

I was led to believe that this was an improvement from 2012.

[dspNY]

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Republican 503,632   
Democrat 483,019   
Other 31,507   
NPA 188,191

What's the official party line as for why this is happening?

Are you dense or something? It's all relative. That's like saying IA is solid D because they're ahead in raw early vote, even though they're underperforming 2012.

I was led to believe that this was an improvement from 2012.

That Florida number includes all of the in-person early voting which leans Dem. Right now the vote by mail is virtually even when you account for ballot requests in addition to ballots cast