The absentee/early vote thread

[NOVA Green]

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Republican 503,632   
Democrat 483,019   
Other 31,507   
NPA 188,191

What's the official party line as for why this is happening?

The interesting item on the link you posted are actually the concentration of NPA not-yet-returned  numbers in counties that are swinging heavily towards Clinton this year (Miami-Dade, Tampa/St Pete, Orlando) heavily as a result of Latinos swinging hard against the Republican Pres nominee.

I haven't run the numbers on NPA in FL by county between '12 and '16, but it does appear that there are a lot of infrequent and/or first time voters that selected NPA in counties where Clinton will likely perform quite well in November.

[dspNY]

Georgia early vote demographics, 10/24

White: 61.3%
African-American: 28.9%
Hispanic: 1.0%
Other: 1.8%
Unknown: 6.9%

African-American numbers improved a little due to a Souls to the Polls push

[Gass3268]

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[Smash255]

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Republican 503,632   
Democrat 483,019   
Other 31,507   
NPA 188,191

What's the official party line as for why this is happening?

Are you dense or something? It's all relative. That's like saying IA is solid D because they're ahead in raw early vote, even though they're underperforming 2012.

I was led to believe that this was an improvement from 2012.

That also included early in person voting, which began today in most counties in Florida those #'s aren't out yet.  Early in person voting started slightly later in Florida in 2012, but the day early voting began the GOP had a 66k absentee lead in returned ballot (about 5%), this year it is 2%.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/10/with-16m-floridians-having-voted-dems-cut-gop-absentee-vote-lead-in-half-in-1st-early-vote-day.html

[Holmes]

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That's good. It's Monday. More people will vote after work.

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/790577926819442688

In first four hours of early voting in bellwether Hillsborough County, FL, Dems have a 49-35% lead in voters.  #enthusiasmgap

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/790577513235881984

In conservative Duval County, FL, the GOP was +3,000 in VBM ballots over two weeks of voting.  In 4 hours of Early Vote, Dems are up 500.

Update on the above

"First day EV in bellwether Hillsborough County, FL: Dem win 49-34.  Increased total early vote lead by about 60%."

"In conservative Duval County, FL GOP had 3k vote lead in two weeks of VBM.  Dems cut it in half on day one of early vote: +1700 Dem today."

[dspNY]

Wisconsin absentee ballot stats, 10/24

Dane and Milwaukee Counties have returned 73,233 of the 249,172 absentee ballots in Wisconsin, for 29.4% of the statewide total. These two counties contributed to 26% of the 2012 statewide total. These are the two big Dem counties.

Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties have returned 30,953 ballots, 12.4% of the 249,172 absentee ballots in Wisconsin. These three counties contributed to 12.3% of the 2012 statewide total. These are the three big GOP counties.

Dem big counties up 3.3%, GOP essentially flat

[IceSpear]

Wisconsin absentee ballot stats, 10/24

Dane and Milwaukee Counties have returned 73,233 of the 249,172 absentee ballots in Wisconsin, for 29.4% of the statewide total. These two counties contributed to 26% of the 2012 statewide total. These are the two big Dem counties.

Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties have returned 30,953 ballots, 12.4% of the 249,172 absentee ballots in Wisconsin. These three counties contributed to 12.3% of the 2012 statewide total. These are the three big GOP counties.

Dem big counties up 3.3%, GOP essentially flat

I'm surprised the WOW counties are flat, considering they're not exactly in love with Trump and 2012 had a favorite son on the ticket.

[dspNY]

Colorado mail ballot stats, 10/24

DEM: 48,167 (42.2%)
GOP: 36,825 (32.3%)
IND: 24,744 (24.1%)
Other: 1,676 (1.5%)

[Gass3268]

Wisconsin absentee ballot stats, 10/24

Dane and Milwaukee Counties have returned 73,233 of the 249,172 absentee ballots in Wisconsin, for 29.4% of the statewide total. These two counties contributed to 26% of the 2012 statewide total. These are the two big Dem counties.

Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties have returned 30,953 ballots, 12.4% of the 249,172 absentee ballots in Wisconsin. These three counties contributed to 12.3% of the 2012 statewide total. These are the three big GOP counties.

Dem big counties up 3.3%, GOP essentially flat

I'm surprised the WOW counties are flat, considering they're not exactly in love with Trump and 2012 had a favorite son on the ticket.

Turnout is Wisconsin is always very good.

[Gass3268]

Colorado mail ballot stats, 10/24

DEM: 48,167 (42.2%)
GOP: 36,825 (32.3%)
IND: 24,744 (24.1%)
Other: 1,676 (1.5%)

Michael McDonald said that Republicans typically lead, but this is the presidential election under new all mail-ballot + vote centers with same day reg law.

[psychprofessor]

Whoa, Democrats surging in VBM in NEBRASKA:

2016:

VBM Requests: D 30,910 46% R 23,408 35% I 11,881 18% Total 66,768

2012:

vs. 2012 Requests: D 26,019 118.8% R 23,560 99.4% I 10,070 118.0% Total 59,980 111.3%

[Doimper]

Whoa, Democrats surging in VBM in NEBRASKA:

2016:

VBM Requests: D 30,910 46% R 23,408 35% I 11,881 18% Total 66,768

2012:

vs. 2012 Requests: D 26,019 118.8% R 23,560 99.4% I 10,070 118.0% Total 59,980 111.3%

Hello, NE-02

[Crumpets]

I stand by my prediction that NE-2 will vote to the left of the nation as a whole.

[Gass3268]

Whoa, Democrats surging in VBM in NEBRASKA:

2016:

VBM Requests: D 30,910 46% R 23,408 35% I 11,881 18% Total 66,768

2012:

vs. 2012 Requests: D 26,019 118.8% R 23,560 99.4% I 10,070 118.0% Total 59,980 111.3%

Hello, NE-02

If that holds up NE-01 could be reasonable.

[Gass3268]

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[Doimper]

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Holy sh**t

[ApatheticAustrian]

i know, NV starts getting boring, but...


Third straight day of 30,000-plus voters turning out for early voting in Clark County. 32,500 had voted by 6 PM. 30K voted on Day 3 in '12.
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/790722043620630530?lang=de


how do you step up from titanium?

[dspNY]

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Dallas County went for Obama by 15-16 points even though he lost Texas by 11 and 16 points in his two campaigns

[Dr. Arch]

i know, NV starts getting boring, but...


Third straight day of 30,000-plus voters turning out for early voting in Clark County. 32,500 had voted by 6 PM. 30K voted on Day 3 in '12.
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/790722043620630530?lang=de


how do you step up from titanium?

Carbon-Fiber

[Gass3268]

In early Utah turnout, a third more Democrats than expected have voted

[Gass3268]

As polls closed at 6 p.m., more than 63,000 people had turned out for the first day of early voting, shattering the previous record of 47,093 set on day one of early voting in 2012.


Harris County, TX

[NOVA Green]

Whoa, Democrats surging in VBM in NEBRASKA:

2016:

VBM Requests: D 30,910 46% R 23,408 35% I 11,881 18% Total 66,768

2012:

vs. 2012 Requests: D 26,019 118.8% R 23,560 99.4% I 10,070 118.0% Total 59,980 111.3%

Hello, NE-02

If that holds up NE-01 could be reasonable.

What's the PVI on NE-01?

I I know that 2010 redistricting in Nebraska and the unicameral legislature shifted some heavily Democratic regions of Metro Omaha into the 1st district, and additionally there is a huge college town in Lincoln that is heavily D.

Still skeptical on NE-02, let alone NE-01 so curious on your explanation for why the 1st CD might be in play....

[Devout Centrist]

As polls closed at 6 p.m., more than 63,000 people had turned out for the first day of early voting, shattering the previous record of 47,093 set on day one of early voting in 2012.


Harris County, TX

Jesus.

[Smash255]

As polls closed at 6 p.m., more than 63,000 people had turned out for the first day of early voting, shattering the previous record of 47,093 set on day one of early voting in 2012.


Harris County, TX

Jesus.

Travis might be interesting.....