The absentee/early vote thread

[HillOfANight]

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/

Overall story is that the GOP is picking up fast.

The Black vote is now 77% vs the comparable period (75% last update). Whites are now 108% (was 102%).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/

Overall story is that the GOP is picking up fast.

The Black vote is now 77% vs the comparable period (75% last update). Whites are now 108% (was 102%).

We'll see how this weekend goes.

[ApatheticAustrian]

yeah...not nearly enough stations.

[HillOfANight]

Even when isolated to where sites weren't reduced, Blacks are 91% of where they were, whites 128%.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Even when isolated to where sites weren't reduced, Blacks are 91% of where they were, whites 128%.

Again... we'll just have to WAIT. AND. SEE. It's not a nice number, but not worth panicking over just yet.

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/

Overall story is that the GOP is picking up fast.

The Black vote is now 77% vs the comparable period (75% last update). Whites are now 108% (was 102%).

If you look at this image, Democrats are somewhat behind their 2012 pace but nothing terrifying considering the restricted locations. Black votes will probably pick up the pace eventually with more open locations.

The higher share of whites isn't as bad of news for Hillary as one might think, since she will earn higher share of educated whites this year than Obama.

Also unaffiliated #'s are higher this year than in 2012. Many unaffiliated are youngsters that are voting for Hillary.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/

Overall story is that the GOP is picking up fast.

The Black vote is now 77% vs the comparable period (75% last update). Whites are now 108% (was 102%).

If you look at this image, Democrats are somewhat behind their 2012 pace but nothing terrifying considering the restricted locations. Black votes will probably pick up the pace eventually with more open locations.

The higher share of whites isn't as bad of news for Hillary as one might think, since she will earn higher share of educated whites this year than Obama.

Also unaffiliated #'s are higher this year than in 2012. Many unaffiliated are youngsters that are voting for Hillary.

Yes. That's the key.

[Mehmentum]

Also, keep in mind that we have two polls that show Clinton winning early voters in NC by 10 points more than she did in 2012.

[BoAtlantis]

Even when isolated to where sites weren't reduced, Blacks are 91% of where they were, whites 128%.

91% isn't too bad. Obama would naturally do better among black voters.

Also, as I said above, 128% whites don't mean too much to me. Using the theory that educated whites are the most likely to vote, it could also mean that educated whites are NeverTrump-ers voting out in droves.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Dave Wasserman (https://twitter.com/Redistrict) tweets:

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and

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Also:

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[dspNY]

Wisconsin early vote stats 10/25

289,253 ballots have been cast.

Heavily Democratic Dane and Milwaukee Counties have cast 84,406 votes (29.2% of the overall vote). They were 26% of the state vote in 2012.

Heavily Republican Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties have cast 13.7% of the overall vote. They were 12.3% of the state vote in 2012. So Republicans have picked it up a little here. Waukesha had a big dump of votes.

The Dem counties are overperforming by 3.2% and the GOP counties are overperforming by 1.4%

[Speed of Sound]

Schale thrice on the Florida numbers today:

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Schale really starting to ring the bell of "it's over in FL".

[Dr. Arch]

@steveschale  5s seconds ago


In bellwether Hillsborough, Dems extend in person early lead. Lead in all votes cast (EV/abs) by 7.5% after day 2.

My friend, who I encouraged to vote, just sent his ballot in Hillsborough.

[ApatheticAustrian]

in normal elections i would now be overjoyed.

in this election i am scared of registered usually non-voting dems...<.<

[ag]

in normal elections i would now be overjoyed.

in this election i am scared of registered usually non-voting dems...<.<

Yep. I do not see anything that would make me sleep well.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

in normal elections i would now be overjoyed.

in this election i am scared of registered usually non-voting dems...<.<

Yep. I do not see anything that would make me sleep well.

Given some of you, I don't expect some to sleep until Clinton has left office.

[Gass3268]

in normal elections i would now be overjoyed.

in this election i am scared of registered usually non-voting dems...<.<

Yep. I do not see anything that would make me sleep well.

Other than the fact that almost everyone has said Florida is essentially won for Clinton.

[Gass3268]

in normal elections i would now be overjoyed.

in this election i am scared of registered usually non-voting dems...<.<

Yep. I do not see anything that would make me sleep well.

Other than the fact that almost everyone has said Florida is essentially won for Clinton.

Florida looks great so far with the massive uptick in Hispanic turnout, as do Arizona and Texas.  If you're going to worry, worry about black turnout in OH and NC and the apparently big uptick in NC white Dems (many of whom are not friendlies for Clinton).

Two polls in NC (PPP & Upshot) have Clinton winning the early vote in NC more than Obama did.

[Speed of Sound]

in normal elections i would now be overjoyed.

in this election i am scared of registered usually non-voting dems...<.<

Yep. I do not see anything that would make me sleep well.

Other than the fact that almost everyone has said Florida is essentially won for Clinton.

And, I'll waste my breath to say that, if she wins FL, it requires the superhuman bending of the mind to see how she loses the GE.

Clinton wins this scenario 270-268, for God's sake:

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

  Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions:  10,015,480 votes making up 21.7% of the 2012 early vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

in normal elections i would now be overjoyed.

in this election i am scared of registered usually non-voting dems...<.<

Yep. I do not see anything that would make me sleep well.

Other than the fact that almost everyone has said Florida is essentially won for Clinton.

And, I'll waste my breath to say that, if she wins FL, it requires the superhuman bending of the mind to see how she loses the GE.

Clinton wins this scenario 270-268, for God's sake:

I hereby nominate this map for Strangest Semi-Plausible Clinton Win.

[Doimper]

  Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions:  10,015,480 votes making up 21.7% of the 2012 early vote.

Is there any info about how many were cast at this point in 2012?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

in normal elections i would now be overjoyed.

in this election i am scared of registered usually non-voting dems...<.<

Yep. I do not see anything that would make me sleep well.

Other than the fact that almost everyone has said Florida is essentially won for Clinton.

Florida looks great so far with the massive uptick in Hispanic turnout, as do Arizona and Texas.  If you're going to worry, worry about black turnout in OH and NC and the apparently big uptick in NC white Dems (many of whom are not friendlies for Clinton).

The early white vote are the likely to be the kindest to Clinton.

[dspNY]

Finally, some Arizona VBM party ID stats:

GOP: 235,565 (38.2%)
DEM: 229,053 (37.1%)
IND: 143,834 (23.3%)
Other: 8,431 (1.4%)

The registered voter base in AZ by party ID is 35R/34I/30D. So Dems are outdoing their registration numbers by 7 points, Republicans are outdoing their registration numbers by 3 points, and independents are lagging their voter registration by 11 points. Apparently in this early voting electorate, Monmouth found a Clinton +10

[Antonio the Sixth]

Finally, some Arizona VBM party ID stats:

GOP: 235,565 (38.2%)
DEM: 229,053 (37.1%)
IND: 143,834 (23.3%)
Other: 8,431 (1.4%)

The registered voter base in AZ by party ID is 35R/34I/30D. So Dems are outdoing their registration numbers by 7 points, Republicans are outdoing their registration numbers by 3 points, and independents are lagging their voter registration by 11 points. Apparently in this early voting electorate, Monmouth found a Clinton +10

Do we know what EV looked like at that point in 2012?