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Author Topic: The absentee/early vote thread  (Read 170015 times)
dspNY
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« Reply #925 on: October 25, 2016, 07:50:19 PM »

Finally, some Arizona VBM party ID stats:

GOP: 235,565 (38.2%)
DEM: 229,053 (37.1%)
IND: 143,834 (23.3%)
Other: 8,431 (1.4%)

The registered voter base in AZ by party ID is 35R/34I/30D. So Dems are outdoing their registration numbers by 7 points, Republicans are outdoing their registration numbers by 3 points, and independents are lagging their voter registration by 11 points. Apparently in this early voting electorate, Monmouth found a Clinton +10

Do we know what EV looked like at that point in 2012?

No we do not. That being said, I remember Arizona's first returns being the mail ballots and Romney was up 14, and then they called the state pretty soon after
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #926 on: October 25, 2016, 07:52:18 PM »

in normal elections i would now be overjoyed.

in this election i am scared of registered usually non-voting dems...<.<



Yep. I do not see anything that would make me sleep well.

Other than the fact that almost everyone has said Florida is essentially won for Clinton.

Florida looks great so far with the massive uptick in Hispanic turnout, as do Arizona and Texas.  If you're going to worry, worry about black turnout in OH and NC and the apparently big uptick in NC white Dems (many of whom are not friendlies for Clinton).

The early white vote are the likely to be the kindest to Clinton.

IDK.  Trump and Clinton both killed the early vote in the primaries.  I would think it's just the opposite, with NeverTrump types and Clinton R's either voting on election day or not at all.

I disagree, you assume that the swing-voters/moderate Rs are only begrudgingly voting for her. I think that's a mistake.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #927 on: October 25, 2016, 07:59:31 PM »

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/

Overall story is that the GOP is picking up fast.

The Black vote is now 77% vs the comparable period (75% last update). Whites are now 108% (was 102%).


lol that's one (wrong) way to interpret the numbers.
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dspNY
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« Reply #928 on: October 25, 2016, 08:00:32 PM »

For some basic Arizona information, go to about 3:25 on this Youtube video from 2012. You see the majority of the mail ballots counted. Romney led by a 56-42 margin

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUOfdyg_hz8
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #929 on: October 25, 2016, 08:01:49 PM »

For some basic Arizona information, go to about 3:25 on this Youtube video from 2012. You see the majority of the mail ballots counted. Romney led by a 56-42 margin

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUOfdyg_hz8

Wow, that plus what Monmouth posted has me feeling somewhat bullish on Clinton's odds in AZ right now.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #930 on: October 25, 2016, 08:03:31 PM »

I feel like the general consensus is that Clinton is now slightly favored in Arizona anyway, yes?
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #931 on: October 25, 2016, 08:06:35 PM »

Florida is toast for Trump, guys

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale 37m37 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL

CORREX:  Broward had 30k more votes early today (not 25k). Almost tied record day one numbers!!!  #SteveCantAdd
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #932 on: October 25, 2016, 08:07:41 PM »

I feel like the general consensus is that Clinton is now slightly favored in Arizona anyway, yes?

I'm not sure. As I say, certainly these early voting numbers are quite encouraging and the polling has been decently so, but only Sabato and 538 of the 9 projectors in the NYT Upshot collection have it lean D.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #933 on: October 25, 2016, 08:08:04 PM »

Florida is toast for Trump, guys

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale 37m37 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL

CORREX:  Broward had 30k more votes early today (not 25k). Almost tied record day one numbers!!!  #SteveCantAdd


Great news!
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dspNY
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« Reply #934 on: October 25, 2016, 08:09:54 PM »

I feel like the general consensus is that Clinton is now slightly favored in Arizona anyway, yes?

I'm not sure. As I say, certainly these early voting numbers are quite encouraging and the polling has been decently so, but only Sabato and 538 of the 9 projectors in the NYT Upshot collection have it lean D.

I think it is a total tossup. Remember Clinton has to reverse a 9 point gap from 2012
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #935 on: October 25, 2016, 08:16:35 PM »

I feel like the general consensus is that Clinton is now slightly favored in Arizona anyway, yes?

I'm not sure. As I say, certainly these early voting numbers are quite encouraging and the polling has been decently so, but only Sabato and 538 of the 9 projectors in the NYT Upshot collection have it lean D.

I think it is a total tossup. Remember Clinton has to reverse a 9 point gap from 2012

Virginia had a 15 point swing to the Democrat in 2008. A 9 point swing in a formerly red state would not be unprecedented.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #936 on: October 25, 2016, 08:29:06 PM »

Colorado Update


Dems continue to beat the HOLY HELL out of Rethuglicans in early ballot returns

Democrats are up 23,000 ballots. At this point in 2014, Rethuglicans were up by 27,000 ballots. Turnout spiking in Pueblo and Denver counties.

15 days to Election Day 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  117,766 (64,777)
Republicans  94,499 (91,060)
Independent 70,410 (46,404)

TOTAL 286,639 (204,480)

Total turnout up 40%
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #937 on: October 25, 2016, 08:33:56 PM »

Colorado Update


Dems continue to beat the HOLY HELL out of Rethuglicans in early ballot returns

Democrats are up 23,000 ballots. At this point in 2014, Rethuglicans were up by 27,000 ballots. Turnout spiking in Pueblo and Denver counties.

15 days to Election Day 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  117,766 (64,777)
Republicans  94,499 (91,060)
Independent 70,410 (46,404)

TOTAL 286,639 (204,480)

Total turnout up 40%

Great to see this. CO might be my new home state in the not-so-distant future Smiley
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #938 on: October 25, 2016, 08:43:02 PM »

Dave Wasserman (https://twitter.com/Redistrict) tweets:

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Wow!

These numbers are not a good early indicator for Republicans in Texas...

80% of the population of the Great State of Texas lives in a handful of urban Metro areas, and generally counties with high population growth, and the Travis and El Paso county numbers indicate an early surge of Latino voters in heavily populated counties.

Additionally Williamson (Round Rock) is basically an Upper-Middle-Class community North of Austin where there is a significant tech sector, exactly the type of college educated Anglos that are abandoning the top of the ticket in droves, so I suspect this is actually positive news for the Dems and as I have stated elsewhere, this county might be one of the surprise Texas county flips come November.

Even the "lowest turnout" of the Metro counties is not necessarily bad news for Dems. Montgomery County is typically a +55-60 Republican County, where I suspect higher turnout will result in significantly lower total Republican vote margins than previously, as well as places like Denton, Tarrant, and Fort Bend where increased turnout will also likely favor Democrats because of the proportion of non-voters combined with college educated Anglos will similarly cause a net reduction of total Republican total vote margins in these counties.

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dspNY
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« Reply #939 on: October 25, 2016, 08:49:18 PM »

Colorado Update


Dems continue to beat the HOLY HELL out of Rethuglicans in early ballot returns

Democrats are up 23,000 ballots. At this point in 2014, Rethuglicans were up by 27,000 ballots. Turnout spiking in Pueblo and Denver counties.

15 days to Election Day 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  117,766 (64,777)
Republicans  94,499 (91,060)
Independent 70,410 (46,404)

TOTAL 286,639 (204,480)

Total turnout up 40%

This is a shade over 11% of the overall 2012 vote
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dspNY
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« Reply #940 on: October 25, 2016, 08:52:42 PM »

Dave Wasserman (https://twitter.com/Redistrict) tweets:

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and

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Also:

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Wow!

These numbers are not a good early indicator for Republicans in Texas...

80% of the population of the Great State of Texas lives in a handful of urban Metro areas, and generally counties with high population growth, and the Travis and El Paso county numbers indicate an early surge of Latino voters in heavily populated counties.

Additionally Williamson (Round Rock) is basically an Upper-Middle-Class community North of Austin where there is a significant tech sector, exactly the type of college educated Anglos that are abandoning the top of the ticket in droves, so I suspect this is actually positive news for the Dems and as I have stated elsewhere, this county might be one of the surprise Texas county flips come November.

Even the "lowest turnout" of the Metro counties is not necessarily bad news for Dems. Montgomery County is typically a +55-60 Republican County, where I suspect higher turnout will result in significantly lower total Republican vote margins than previously, as well as places like Denton, Tarrant, and Fort Bend where increased turnout will also likely favor Democrats because of the proportion of non-voters combined with college educated Anglos will similarly cause a net reduction of total Republican total vote margins in these counties.



If Williamson County, which is a few points right of the state, ever flipped to Clinton, she would likely win Texas
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #941 on: October 25, 2016, 08:58:00 PM »

from ralston...another 30k out of clark county today, still going.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/791084516748189696
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #942 on: October 25, 2016, 08:59:12 PM »


Wow.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #943 on: October 25, 2016, 09:03:01 PM »


About 21.7% of the total Clark County vote from 2012 in just 4 days of vote.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #944 on: October 25, 2016, 09:05:14 PM »

I don't think Williamson will flip, unless establishment but anti-Trump Republican turnout really crashes, but it will swing to Clinton considerably. Hays County (Austin's other suburban county) should flip though.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #945 on: October 25, 2016, 09:06:59 PM »

since ralston explains that hispanic unions beat the tacos out of republicans in NV, maybe latinos are the last hope for unionized america.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #946 on: October 25, 2016, 09:08:05 PM »

10 million votes have been cast:
http://www.electproject.org/early_2016
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #947 on: October 25, 2016, 09:17:07 PM »

Florida is crushing it

 Steve Schale ‏@steveschale 3m3 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL

Dems also win GOP-leaning Volusia County (Daytona) on day 2, by roughly same narrow margin as day 1.
0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
Steve Schale ‏@steveschale 7m7 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL

Day 2 of Orange County (Orlando) outpaced Day 1. Dems crush it again there, win 50-28%.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #948 on: October 25, 2016, 09:22:11 PM »

on the positive side for reps....atm they lead washoe county, Nv today with 5 more votes.
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Xing
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« Reply #949 on: October 25, 2016, 09:22:30 PM »

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/791100260604981248

Republicans won today's votes in Washoe by a whopping five votes, but that's after getting hammered the previous three days.
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