The absentee/early vote thread

[dspNY]

Florida is crushing it

 Steve Schale ‏@steveschale 3m3 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL

Dems also win GOP-leaning Volusia County (Daytona) on day 2, by roughly same narrow margin as day 1.
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Steve Schale ‏@steveschale 7m7 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL

Day 2 of Orange County (Orlando) outpaced Day 1. Dems crush it again there, win 50-28%.

The only way that happens is with very heavy Hispanic turnout which seems to be the story which will persist through Election Day

[NOVA Green]

Dave Wasserman (https://twitter.com/Redistrict) tweets:

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and

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Also:

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Wow!

These numbers are not a good early indicator for Republicans in Texas...

80% of the population of the Great State of Texas lives in a handful of urban Metro areas, and generally counties with high population growth, and the Travis and El Paso county numbers indicate an early surge of Latino voters in heavily populated counties.

Additionally Williamson (Round Rock) is basically an Upper-Middle-Class community North of Austin where there is a significant tech sector, exactly the type of college educated Anglos that are abandoning the top of the ticket in droves, so I suspect this is actually positive news for the Dems and as I have stated elsewhere, this county might be one of the surprise Texas county flips come November.

Even the "lowest turnout" of the Metro counties is not necessarily bad news for Dems. Montgomery County is typically a +55-60 Republican County, where I suspect higher turnout will result in significantly lower total Republican vote margins than previously, as well as places like Denton, Tarrant, and Fort Bend where increased turnout will also likely favor Democrats because of the proportion of non-voters combined with college educated Anglos will similarly cause a net reduction of total Republican total vote margins in these counties.

If Williamson County, which is a few points right of the state, ever flipped to Clinton, she would likely win Texas

I both agree and disagree...

I could easily envision a scenario where Williamson flips, along with similar large swings in heavily Anglo College-Educated counties, but Trump still ekes out a win because of the relative inelastic nature of EastTex and rural/ small town parts of NorthTex.

Although polling of Texas is sketchy, especially once we look at data from various regions of the state, it does appear that the largest swings towards Clinton are in the Metro Houston area, as well as Central Texas, while DFW doesn't appear to be swinging as hard towards the Democrats.

However, with Texas it all boils down to both voter registration and turnout levels, and at least the early voting results indicate that the state is not completely out of grasp for Clinton, and there is an outside chance of a hidden surge of voters making this a close ball game at the end of the 4th quarter.

But yes, if Clinton can win over wealthy Anglos in Williamson County, it would seem to indicate a complete collapse of the Anglo educated suburban voters, that will likely manifest in other places such as Montgomery/Fort Bend (Houston), Collins/Denton/Tarrant (DFW), as well as the heavily Anglo suburbs within Bexar and Travis counties....

If so, it might just be enough to take the ball over the finish line, or at least get a successful Field Goal in OT, to carry the state.... not expecting that as the outcome, and we'll need to continue to monitor EV numbers further and see if Republican enthusiasm and voting continues to remain depressed closer to election day.

[Minnesota Mike]

Florida is toast for Trump, guys

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale 37m37 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL

CORREX:  Broward had 30k more votes early today (not 25k). Almost tied record day one numbers!!!  #SteveCantAdd

Early Voting turnout is through the roof in Florida. Another 35,000 voters voted early today in Miami-Dade for a total of 70,000  (no partisan breakdown yet but has to be good for Democrats).  That is about 30% of the 2012 total  early turnout and there are still 12 days of Early Voting left.

[Crumpets]

For anyone who is concerned that the early vote is "cannibalizing" the election day vote - that's not necessarily a bad thing. Remember all the stories of people in hours-long lines on election day in 2012? Every person who would vote on election day instead voting early is a person who is not waiting in line on election day.

[Minnesota Mike]

For anyone who is concerned that the early vote is "cannibalizing" the election day vote - that's not necessarily a bad thing. Remember all the stories of people in hours-long lines on election day in 2012? Every person who would vote on election day instead voting early is a person who is not waiting in line on election day.

Knock on wood at least in Florida things seem to be going smother than in 2012. Going from 8 to 14 Early Voting days and extending hours is a big help.

[dspNY]

For anyone who is concerned that the early vote is "cannibalizing" the election day vote - that's not necessarily a bad thing. Remember all the stories of people in hours-long lines on election day in 2012? Every person who would vote on election day instead voting early is a person who is not waiting in line on election day.

And on Election Day, Clinton will find the less frequent Dem voters who haven't voted yet with her GOTV apparatus

[Ozymandias]

Using numbers from http://www.electproject.org/early_2016, here's total "ADVANCE" (Mail-in + Early) vote as a fraction of 2012 TOTAL vote (with some bolded battleground states):

State   2012 Total Vote  2016 Advance Vote  % of 2012 Total
TN   2,458,577   697,542   28.37%
AZ   2,298,802   616,883   26.83%
MT   483,932   104,162   21.52%
IA   1,574,738   311,007   19.75%
FL   8,474,134   1,614,883   19.06%
GA   3,897,839   699,824   17.95%
NV   1,014,918   174,119   17.16%
NC   4,493,301   653,487   14.54%
ME   711,053   85,141   11.97%
CO   2,569,516   286,639   11.16%
ND   321,072   35,599   11.09%
NM   783,758   84,432   10.77%
NE   790,662   79,742   10.09%
ID   652,274   64,402   9.87%
WI   3,063,064   289,253   9.44%
OH   5,580,715   509,829   9.14%
IN   2,623,541   238,749   9.10%
CA   13,015,298   1,174,119   9.02%
WA   3,125,516   257,048   8.22%
MI   4,722,988   386,199   8.18%
UT   1,017,401   74,143   7.29%
TX   7,991,197   575,941   7.21%
AR   1,069,468   70,180   6.56%
VA   3,847,243   204,324   5.31%
MN   2,925,920   150,973   5.16%
SC   1,964,118   100,966   5.14%
OR   1,775,995   76,755   4.32%
KS   1,158,833   49,304   4.25%
NJ   3,638,499   141,282   3.88%
IL   5,241,179   167,872   3.20%
DE   413,890   11,516   2.78%
DC   292,992   5,659   1.93%
RI   444,668   7,293   1.64%
AK   297,625   4,733   1.59%
KY   1,796,832   19,820   1.10%
MS   1,285,584   13,167   1.02%
WV   670,438   5,811   0.87%
AL   2,070,327   2,399   0.12%
CT   1,558,132   0   0.00%
HI   434,539   0   0.00%
LA   1,994,065   0   0.00%
MD   2,697,018   0   0.00%
MA   3,161,215   0   0.00%
MO   2,757,323   0   0.00%
NH   708,399   0   0.00%
NY   7,071,734   0   0.00%
OK   1,334,872   0   0.00%
PA   5,742,040   0   0.00%
SD   363,815   0   0.00%
VT   297,247   0   0.00%
WY   247,026   0   0.00%
USA   128,925,332   10,045,197   7.79%

[Crumpets]

Here's a map - 4% change in vote = 10% change in color

[BundouYMB]

Well, FWIW the TN Republican party issued a statement last week telling voters to "vote their conscience." Governor Haslam is also #NeverTrump.

I really don't think it matters though. TN would probably be one of the last states (along with Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and West Virginia) to vote for Clinton. The EV surge probably is due to a change in rules or something.

[ag]

However, with Texas it all boils down to both voter registration and turnout levels,

And this is, of course, where there is the nearly untapped reserve of the Rio Grande Valley. This part of the state normally has abyssmal turnout. But, of course, in recent decades nobody has thought of mobilizing it - there has not been a reason to do so. While it might be too late to do so in this election, if Texas becomes competitive, Dems should be able to add a percentage point or two to their statewide results through proper registration/GOTV effort in the Valley.

[Ozymandias]

Well, FWIW the TN Republican party issued a statement last week telling voters to "vote their conscience." Governor Haslam is also #NeverTrump.

I really don't think it matters though. TN would probably be one of the last states (along with Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and West Virginia) to vote for Clinton. The EV surge probably is due to a change in rules or something.

Actually, back in 2012 about 60% of the total vote in TN was cast early, so I don't think 28% at this point is that unexpected.

[Devout Centrist]

I didn't even notice TN.  What's going on there?

They have a lot of TN Volunteer's. Same for Montana.

[Alcon]

My first analysis of Washington suggests a pretty good enthusiasm gap so far for the Democrats:

Here's an interesting pattern in the turnout results so far, for the 25 counties where I have matchbacks:

* 4.4% of voters who didn't vote in the Presidential Primary have returned ballots

* 11.6% of Republican voters from the Primary have returned ballots

* 15.0% (!) of Democratic voters from the Primary have returned ballots

Obviously, that won't hold up, but that's a 64%-36% D turnout split among Presidential Primary voters in the General so far, when the Presidential Primary was only 58%-42% D.  That seems like a significant early enthusiasm gap to me, and it holds up across counties.

[Speed of Sound]

Not sick of Schalian input on FL yet? Good!

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[Maxwell]

Every day that voter turnout is high is another day that Trump's chances at the White House slips.

[Adam Griffin]

Even when isolated to where sites weren't reduced, Blacks are 91% of where they were, whites 128%.

That number isn't potentially all that bad. Is this for advance in-person voting only, or is it all ballots cast thus far? Assuming it's the former:

Looking at the non-rogue counties...what is the status of absentee mail ballots at this particular point (accepted)? The Democratic ballots were off-the-chart compared to 2012 last I recall; I believe it has narrowed since.

I know I talk a lot about AIP voting cannibalizing ED voting, but Democrats are increasingly pushing it a step further; trying to convert early in-person voters into ABM voters. Is it possible that it is playing a role here; that the surge in mail ballots has cannibalized what was previously AIP vote, which before that was ED vote?

[NOVA Green]

However, with Texas it all boils down to both voter registration and turnout levels,

And this is, of course, where there is the nearly untapped reserve of the Rio Grande Valley. This part of the state normally has abyssmal turnout. But, of course, in recent decades nobody has thought of mobilizing it - there has not been a reason to do so. While it might be too late to do so in this election, if Texas becomes competitive, Dems should be able to add a percentage point or two to their statewide results through proper registration/GOTV effort in the Valley.

Absolutely agreed....

The last time anyone attempted to organize in the Rio Grande Valley was way back in the days of the late great Cesar Chavez...

Obviously, the vast majority of SouthTex Latinos today are not Migros, but there was an historic culture of voter, economic, and political surpression from the dominant old Spanish Tejanos and Anglo ranchers and farmers, that is still prevalent to this day.

Based upon at least early voting numbers in the Rio Grande Valley, it does appear that there is an unprescedented level of political mobilization in voting patterns, although obviously investments in voter registration efforts and candidate recruitment for statewide elected offices, will have a much longer term impact, and again absolutely agreed this could well add +1-2% to Democratic margins statewide.

The realidad is that likely once there is a massive voter registration effort in Texas, the statewide Democratic Party will likely look much more progressive on economic policy positions than in in most other American states.

http://www.sampsoniaway.org/interviews/2014/04/03/%E2%80%9Cvoices-of-the-ufw-in-texas%E2%80%9D-a-documentary-on-the-united-farm-worker-movement-in-texas/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Farm_Workers

[Ebsy]

Day 4 number for Clark County, Nevada was 33,610, up from 30,931 in 2012. Democrats added another 5k votes to their lead, and are currently ahead by about 27k votes. They ended up ahead by about 40k votes at the end of week 1 in 2012, so they appear to be on track to pass that.

[IceSpear]

Isn't comparing raw vote problematic due to 4 years of population growth? Particularly for a state like Nevada.

[Ebsy]

Isn't comparing raw vote problematic due to 4 years of population growth? Particularly for a state like Nevada.

The percentages now are similar to 2012, and you are right, Clark County has added 150k voters. Obviously we'll know more at the end of the week when we see the final numbers and the partisan breakdown, but there is 0 evidence of a lack of enthusiasm in early voting in Clark County.

[StatesPoll]

Now Florida=in TRUMP's pocket.

Florida Early Voting(in person) 10/26
2012: DEM 46% | REP 36%    D +10%
2016 Day 2(10/26): DEM 43.5%(240K) | REP 39.2%(216K)    D +4.3%

Very good for TRUMP.

DAY 2 in-person Total: 552k  10/26/2016 5:38AM

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

[Landslide Lyndon]

Now Florida=in TRUMP's pocket.

Florida Early Voting(in person) 10/26
2012: DEM 46% | REP 36%    D +10%
2016 Day 2(10/26): DEM 43.5%(240K) | REP 39.2%(216K)    D +4.3%

Very good for TRUMP.

DAY 2 in-person Total: 552k  10/26/2016 5:38AM

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

I hope you get paid in dollars and not rubles.

[SunSt0rm]

Now Florida=in TRUMP's pocket.

Florida Early Voting(in person) 10/26
2012: DEM 46% | REP 36%    D +10%
2016 Day 2(10/26): DEM 43.5%(240K) | REP 39.2%(216K)    D +4.3%

Very good for TRUMP.

DAY 2 in-person Total: 552k  10/26/2016 5:38AM

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

the results of Palm Beach and Orange County hasnt been included yet for the second day

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Now Florida=in TRUMP's pocket.

Florida Early Voting(in person) 10/26
2012: DEM 46% | REP 36%    D +10%
2016 Day 2(10/26): DEM 43.5%(240K) | REP 39.2%(216K)    D +4.3%

Very good for TRUMP.

DAY 2 in-person Total: 552k  10/26/2016 5:38AM

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

I hope you get paid in dollars and not rubles.

At least he has a job.

[StatesPoll]

Now Florida=in TRUMP's pocket.

Florida Early Voting(in person) 10/26
2012: DEM 46% | REP 36%    D +10%
2016 Day 2(10/26): DEM 43.5%(240K) | REP 39.2%(216K)    D +4.3%

Very good for TRUMP.

DAY 2 in-person Total: 552k  10/26/2016 5:38AM

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

the results of Palm Beach and Orange County hasnt been included yet for the second day

after Palm Beach and Orange County included. It didn't change that much.

Florida Early Voting(in person) 10/26  10/26/2016 7:06AM

2012 in person total: DEM 46% | REP 36%    D +10%
2016 Day 2(10/26): DEM 43.86%(256.6K) | REP 38.61%(225.9K)    D +5.25%
Total 585k

Keep in mind that several counties leaning heavily Trump have not started voting early yet.
especially Pasco county.