The absentee/early vote thread

[JerryArkansas]

Now Florida=in TRUMP's pocket.

Florida Early Voting(in person) 10/26
2012: DEM 46% | REP 36%    D +10%
2016 Day 2(10/26): DEM 43.5%(240K) | REP 39.2%(216K)    D +4.3%

Very good for TRUMP.

DAY 2 in-person Total: 552k  10/26/2016 5:38AM

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

the results of Palm Beach and Orange County hasnt been included yet for the second day

after Palm Beach and Orange County included. It didn't change that much.

Florida Early Voting(in person) 10/26  10/26/2016 7:06AM

2012 in person total: DEM 46% | REP 36%    D +10%
2016 Day 2(10/26): DEM 43.86%(256.6K) | REP 38.61%(225.9K)    D +5.25%
Total 585k

Keep in mind that several counties leaning heavily Trump have not started voting early yet.
especially Pasco county.

 

Also remember that you are comparing totals that are not at the same time in the election season.  But nice try doing what your doing.  Your cultists on twitter really love you, hope they don't turn on election day.

[Dan the Roman]

Now Florida=in TRUMP's pocket.

Florida Early Voting(in person) 10/26
2012: DEM 46% | REP 36%    D +10%
2016 Day 2(10/26): DEM 43.5%(240K) | REP 39.2%(216K)    D +4.3%

Very good for TRUMP.

DAY 2 in-person Total: 552k  10/26/2016 5:38AM

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

the results of Palm Beach and Orange County hasnt been included yet for the second day

after Palm Beach and Orange County included. It didn't change that much.

Florida Early Voting(in person) 10/26  10/26/2016 7:06AM

2012 in person total: DEM 46% | REP 36%    D +10%
2016 Day 2(10/26): DEM 43.86%(256.6K) | REP 38.61%(225.9K)    D +5.25%
Total 585k

Keep in mind that several counties leaning heavily Trump have not started voting early yet.
especially Pasco county.

 

The Florida policy concerning absentee ballots changed so the operative comparison should be with the total number of mail+early votes rather than early. In that measure Democrats and Republicans are very nearly tied, Republicans leading by about 6000, with 40K more Democratic ballots outstanding and with the vast majority of remaining votes likely to be early.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/

Overall story is that the GOP is picking up fast.

The Black vote is now 77% vs the comparable period (75% last update). Whites are now 108% (was 102%).

lol that's one (wrong) way to interpret the numbers.

What's a good way to interpret it? 10/26, Dr. Bitzer says
http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/2016/10/nearing-million-absentee-ballots-in.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Kind of odd that after underperforming mail ballots, GOP is doing relatively better with early voting (Bitzer's numbers are for combined mail/early vote). Maybe the excited Trump supporters are voting early, but they'll peter off. Still, I don't see how one can spin the week's past numbers as a good sign for Clinton.

[The Other Castro]

Important to note for NC:

(((Will Cubbison))) ‏@wccubbison
NC Early Vote Sites:
Yesterday 248
Today 253
Tomorrow 394 (!!)
After a weekend drop and only 120 Sunday, 400+ all next week

[Gass3268]

Important to note for NC:

(((Will Cubbison))) ‏@wccubbison
NC Early Vote Sites:
Yesterday 248
Today 253
Tomorrow 394 (!!)
After a weekend drop and only 120 Sunday, 400+ all next week

Yeah, this feels like an important factor.

Also should note that two polls have shown Hillary is doing much better than Obama did in the early vote in 2012. I think people are forgetting that there is going to be a decent % of registered Republicans (South Charlotte, Triangle Area) that will be voting for Clinton. Blue Dog Dems won't be the only voters to switch sides.

[HillOfANight]

I was just hoping Republicans would continue their abysmal mail margins, but it seems more like a race now. Hopefully Dems extend their leads again with more voting sites next week.

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/

Overall story is that the GOP is picking up fast.

The Black vote is now 77% vs the comparable period (75% last update). Whites are now 108% (was 102%).

lol that's one (wrong) way to interpret the numbers.

What's a good way to interpret it? 10/26, Dr. Bitzer says
http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/2016/10/nearing-million-absentee-ballots-in.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Kind of odd that after underperforming mail ballots, GOP is doing relatively better with early voting (Bitzer's numbers are for combined mail/early vote). Maybe the excited Trump supporters are voting early, but they'll peter off. Still, I don't see how one can spin the week's past numbers as a good sign for Clinton.

We also have to take into account that Independent #'s are greater this year. And a big share of that comes from young people voting for Hillary.

I'm going by my rough memory but Hillary is doing somewhat better under Independent in NC compared to Obama. D minus R margin would be a pretty conservative estimate.

[ApatheticAustrian]

dems now leading in nevada with 24000 votes..

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

obama's overall advantage over romney before election day 2012 has been 34.000 votes....

[BoAtlantis]

Steve Schale

Bellwethers:

Hillsborough County -- the only county in Florida to vote for Obama twice and Bush twice, saw over 18,000 in person votes for the second straight day, and Democrats increase their early vote lead to more than 4,000 votes, and their total early/VBM lead to over 10,000 votes.  Democratic share of total early/VBM votes is about 7.3%.  

I-4 Corridor:  Democrats won every county that is on I-4, except Seminole County (we can't expect to win a county so Republican that you have to go back to Truman to find a Democrat who carried it every day).  Overall for the day, Democrats won 45-35.

Here are a few counties:

Broward: (60D-21R), +11,987 for day 2.
Dade: (48D-29R) +6,600 for day 2.
Orange: (50D-29R) +3,665 for day 2

Also, here is one more for you: among first day of early voting Democratic and NPA Hispanics, 44% were either first time voters, or only voting in their second ever general election.  In other words, these voters are expanding the electorate.

Overall, after day one (again I will update these later), of the roughly 1.6 million ballots cast, 79% of Republican votes came from the most likely of voters, compared to 73% of Democratic votes.  In other words, a larger share of the Democratic turnout has been from new voters, and infrequent voters."

Very important, bolded.

Those of us that watch football, LOL at below.

"Well right now, Republicans are doing about as well in Duval as the Jaguars."

[ApatheticAustrian]

Apparently @seanspicer said GOP up 8 in EV on I-4. Nope

VBM+EV -> Counties on I-4: Dems +30K (+7%)
Entire TPA/ORL DMA: Dems -15K (-1.5%)

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/791291220836356096?lang=de

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/26/1587009/-Early-voting-in-Columbus-OH-on-record-pace

In-person early voting in Franklin County (Columbus) Ohio is coming in far above 2012 totals.
In-person early voting in Franklin County Ohio, 2016 vs. 2012

EARLY VOTING DAY #   2012 DATE   2012 EARLY VOTES   2016 DATE   2016 EARLY VOTES

1   10/2   1,515   10/12   2,483
2   10/3   1,152   10/13   2,076
3   10/4   1,102   10/14   2,471
4   10/5   1,417   10/17   2,284
5   10/9   4,237   10/18   2,032
6   10/10   1,186  10/19   2,189
7   10/11   967   10/20   2,125
8   10/12   1,318   10/21   2,804
9   10/15   1,233   10/24   3,406
10   10/16   1,135   10/25   3,059
11   10/17   1,254   10/26   -
12   10/18   1,237   10/27   -
13   10/19   1,888   10/28   -
14   10/22   2,307   10/29   -
15   10/23   2,264   10/30   -
16   10/24   2,607   10/31   -
17   10/25   2,772   11/01   -
18   10/26   3,784   11/02   -
19   10/29   4,443   11/03   -
20   10/30   3,656   11/04   -
21   10/31   4,118   11/05   -
22   11/01   4,964   11/06   -
23   11/02   5,578   11/07   -
24   11/03   4,832      
25   11/04   3,707      
26   11/05   4,383   
   
"In summary, for the first 10 early voting days in 2012 there were 15,262 votes cast in-person, vs. 24,929 this time, a 63% increase. While there are three fewer early voting days in 2016 compared to 2012, the voting rate is on track to blow through the 2012 total.

In 2012 there were a total of 69,112 in-person early votes cast in the county. The total this time could exceed 100,000, which would be a 45% increase, not  stretch given that the increase so far exceeds 60%."


Ohio is really confusing right now because there are some mixes of positive and negative news.

[Virginiá]

At what point might we be able to reasonably estimate the turnout for this election?

I understand population growth has an effect here, but even with that, it almost seems like turnout might at least be on par with 2012, which was considered high turnout.

[ApatheticAustrian]

my biggest fear atm would be that the party-registration data is going to be useless at the end, cause there has been more crossover-potential than ever.

especially true in OH.

[BoAtlantis]

Few more positives for Hillary in OH

https://twitter.com/tbonier

"Sleeping giant awakens? Huge surge in early vote in Cuyahoga/Franklin Counties yesterday, now accounting for 20% of early votes cast in OH."

"38% of ballots cast in Ohio yesterday came from Franklin and Cuyahoga County. Time to lose the media narrative on Trump doing well in OH."

[Mehmentum]

my biggest fear atm would be that the party-registration data is going to be useless at the end, cause there has been more crossover-potential than ever.

especially true in OH.

True, but polling generally shows that Democrats are much more unified this year than Republicans so generally I'd think that Democrats should outperform the registration gap this year. 

There are a few areas like some parts Northern Florida and Western NC and VA, that could skew these numbers if Trump is turning out people in those areas to a large degree.

[Gass3268]

Few more positives for Hillary in OH

https://twitter.com/tbonier

"Sleeping giant awakens? Huge surge in early vote in Cuyahoga/Franklin Counties yesterday, now accounting for 20% of early votes cast in OH."

"38% of ballots cast in Ohio yesterday came from Franklin and Cuyahoga County. Time to lose the media narrative on Trump doing well in OH."

Cuyahoga/Franklin only made up 15.2% of the early vote cast as of last Thursday. That's a 5% increase in less than a week!

I also wonder if the Clinton camp decided to hold back a bit here like they also did in Iowa, where we are also seeing Democratic recovery/.

[HillOfANight]

Good numbers from CNN
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/26/politics/early-voting-statistics-2016-election/index.html

Arizona
Dems ahead by 4,116 votes, a major improvement from their position at this time four years ago, when they trailed by 21,179.

Colorado
Democrats have outvoted Republicans by more than 10,000. At this point in 2012, Republicans had the advantage by about 7,600 votes.

Florida
Republicans currently hold an 18,120-vote advantage, a paltry amount compared to their 113,222-vote edge at this time in 2008.

Nevada
Democrats hold a nearly 15,000-vote lead, a slight improvement from their position in 2012.

North Carolina
Democrats better than their 2012 pace, but Black vote only 25% share vs 30% in 2012.

Utah
At this point in 2012, Republicans led Democrats in early voting by more than 31,000 voters. But so far this year, the GOP advantage is only 15,834.

Iowa
Democrats are ahead of Republicans in the latest early vote count, but their margin is lower than it was at this point in 2012, to the tune of about 7,200 votes

[Lief 🗽]

I may be misremembering, but I think OH party registration is just based on which primary you voted in. So I'm sure there are a lot of independents and Democrats who voted in the Republican primary for Kasich.

[HillOfANight]

Targetsmart uses a variety of factors to estimate party affiliation (race, Facebook activity, etc). I'm sure they considered the crossover vote in the primaries.

[Yank2133]

Those CO numbers are insane.

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject
Colorado mail ballot stats: 416,951 voted, Dems +6.1 points over Reps (was +8.1 y'day)
http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/newsRoom/index.html

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject
Despite closing reg Dem lead in CO, 2K more Dems than Reps returned ballots y'day. As ballots pile up, will be harder to move percentages

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject
Kicking myself for not saving the CO 2012 daily updates, but at the end of 2012, reg Reps were +1.8 points over Dems

[Gass3268]

Should be noted that CO went to a near all-VbM system. Still great numbers!

[Ozymandias]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  2m2 minutes ago Washington, DC
Clinton leads 59-36 in the North Carolina early vote with more than 800k votes cast. We'll be tracking it daily

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

[The Other Castro]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  2m2 minutes ago Washington, DC
Clinton leads 59-36 in the North Carolina early vote with more than 800k votes cast. We'll be tracking it daily

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

Nice!

[Speed of Sound]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  2m2 minutes ago Washington, DC
Clinton leads 59-36 in the North Carolina early vote with more than 800k votes cast. We'll be tracking it daily

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

Nice!

Yeah, wow. That's a pretty strong statement out of one of the places where it's been a tad less clear re: Clinton's standing.

Their current projection for the final result in NC, for those that don't click through, is 49-43 Clinton.