The absentee/early vote thread

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/791385700730101894
Latest NBC Marist poll in Nevada has Clinton up 25 points in early voting (60-35)

That makes their topline numbers look extremely ridiculous.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/791385700730101894
Latest NBC Marist poll in Nevada has Clinton up 25 points in early voting (60-35)

That makes their topline numbers look extremely ridiculous.

70% of all Nevada votes in 2012 were early votes. If this keeps up than it isn't just ridiculous but nearly impossible.

[dspNY]

Iowa absentee ballot stats, 10/26

DEM: 219,284
GOP: 174,991
IND: 111,484
Other: 1,520

Ballots cast:

DEM: 156,535
GOP: 115,699
IND: 69,222
Other: 942

Dems now 44.3K ahead in ballot requests, up about 2K from yesterday but slip about 200 in votes cast to a 40.8K lead

[dspNY]

In Florida, Democrats have requested 3557 more absentee ballots + votes in VBM but the GOP has about a 35.5K lead in just ballots cast. Are some Dems requesting VBM ballots and deciding to vote in person?

[Classic Conservative]

In Florida, Democrats have requested 3557 more absentee ballots + votes in VBM but the GOP has about a 35.5K lead in just ballots cast. Are some Dems requesting VBM ballots and deciding to vote in person?

They could just not be returning their ballots.

[Alcon]

The only state not to show this trend is CO, which was almost exactly even.    

That's because Colorado votes by mail; it's not really "early voting" so much as...normal, gradual voting.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

In Florida, Democrats have requested 3557 more absentee ballots + votes in VBM but the GOP has about a 35.5K lead in just ballots cast. Are some Dems requesting VBM ballots and deciding to vote in person?

They could just not be returning their ballots.

Or because they're no immediately filling out the ballots...

[Classic Conservative]

In Florida, Democrats have requested 3557 more absentee ballots + votes in VBM but the GOP has about a 35.5K lead in just ballots cast. Are some Dems requesting VBM ballots and deciding to vote in person?

They could just not be returning their ballots.

Or because they're no immediately filling out the ballots...

I mean like the election is 12 days away (because mail for today has already ended on the East Coast) so they better get those ballots in.

[NOVA Green]

In Florida, Democrats have requested 3557 more absentee ballots + votes in VBM but the GOP has about a 35.5K lead in just ballots cast. Are some Dems requesting VBM ballots and deciding to vote in person?

They could just not be returning their ballots.

Or because they're no immediately filling out the ballots...

I mean like the election is 12 days away (because mail for today has already ended on the East Coast) so they better get those ballots in.

Well, coming from the first state to go all vote-by-mail, going way back in the early 2000s, and predominately vote-by-mail in the 1990s, I can attest that many people do wait.

Note, that in Oregon (Not sure about CO) there are ballot drop stations located all over the place in every city in the state, and typically election day has the highest spikes, since here the ballots need to be either received in the mail by ED, or dropped off at a ballot deposit location (Basically like a blue postal mailbox).

Some states like California, allow ballots with a postmark of election day to be counted, which creates a giant headache for election geeks trying to track close elections.

Oregon now has an 83-86% voter participation rate since VbM was implemented, and I would not be surprised to see it higher this year now that automatic driver license registration has rolled out for the first time.

It is a first time for Colorado, so we'll see if their turnout numbers start looking more like fully VbM states (OR & WA) and heavily VbM states (CA) or if it engenders confusion while voters adapt to the new system in their first year.

[Gass3268]

In Florida, Democrats have requested 3557 more absentee ballots + votes in VBM but the GOP has about a 35.5K lead in just ballots cast. Are some Dems requesting VBM ballots and deciding to vote in person?

They could just not be returning their ballots.

Or because they're no immediately filling out the ballots...

I mean like the election is 12 days away (because mail for today has already ended on the East Coast) so they better get those ballots in.

Depends on the state, some will still count it if postmarked on Election Day.

[dspNY]

In Florida, Democrats have requested 3557 more absentee ballots + votes in VBM but the GOP has about a 35.5K lead in just ballots cast. Are some Dems requesting VBM ballots and deciding to vote in person?

They could just not be returning their ballots.

Or because they're no immediately filling out the ballots...

I mean like the election is 12 days away (because mail for today has already ended on the East Coast) so they better get those ballots in.

Depends on the state, some will still count it if postmarked on Election Day.

In Florida, vote by mail requests terminate on November 2 and must be received no later than 7 PM on Election Day. Therefore, to ensure that the votes are counted, they should be sent by November 1 or 2 or hand-delivered to a voting station on Election Day itself

[Gass3268]

In Florida, Democrats have requested 3557 more absentee ballots + votes in VBM but the GOP has about a 35.5K lead in just ballots cast. Are some Dems requesting VBM ballots and deciding to vote in person?

They could just not be returning their ballots.

Or because they're no immediately filling out the ballots...

I mean like the election is 12 days away (because mail for today has already ended on the East Coast) so they better get those ballots in.

Depends on the state, some will still count it if postmarked on Election Day.

In Florida, vote by mail requests terminate on November 2 and must be received no later than 7 PM on Election Day. Therefore, to ensure that the votes are counted, they should be sent by November 1 or 2 or hand-delivered to a voting station on Election Day itself

Thanks for the official word!

[dspNY]

In Florida, Democrats have requested 3557 more absentee ballots + votes in VBM but the GOP has about a 35.5K lead in just ballots cast. Are some Dems requesting VBM ballots and deciding to vote in person?

They could just not be returning their ballots.

Or because they're no immediately filling out the ballots...

I mean like the election is 12 days away (because mail for today has already ended on the East Coast) so they better get those ballots in.

Depends on the state, some will still count it if postmarked on Election Day.

In Florida, vote by mail requests terminate on November 2 and must be received no later than 7 PM on Election Day. Therefore, to ensure that the votes are counted, they should be sent by November 1 or 2 or hand-delivered to a voting station on Election Day itself

Thanks for the official word!

You're welcome.

Now for an interesting treat...here are some SOUTH Carolina early voting demographics

White: 108,256 (66.8%)
African-American: 52,936 (32.7%)
Hispanic: 638 (0.4%)
Unknown: 113 (0.1%)

[HillOfANight]

In Florida, Democrats have requested 3557 more absentee ballots + votes in VBM but the GOP has about a 35.5K lead in just ballots cast. Are some Dems requesting VBM ballots and deciding to vote in person?

They could just not be returning their ballots.

Or because they're no immediately filling out the ballots...

I mean like the election is 12 days away (because mail for today has already ended on the East Coast) so they better get those ballots in.

Depends on the state, some will still count it if postmarked on Election Day.

In Florida, vote by mail requests terminate on November 2 and must be received no later than 7 PM on Election Day. Therefore, to ensure that the votes are counted, they should be sent by November 1 or 2 or hand-delivered to a voting station on Election Day itself

Thanks for the official word!

You're welcome.

Now for an interesting treat...here are some SOUTH Carolina early voting demographics

White: 108,256 (66.8%)
African-American: 52,936 (32.7%)
Hispanic: 638 (0.4%)
Unknown: 113 (0.1%)

Whoa! Higher than Georgia (the white vote too though). What's it like in the past.

[OneJ]

In Florida, Democrats have requested 3557 more absentee ballots + votes in VBM but the GOP has about a 35.5K lead in just ballots cast. Are some Dems requesting VBM ballots and deciding to vote in person?

They could just not be returning their ballots.

Or because they're no immediately filling out the ballots...

I mean like the election is 12 days away (because mail for today has already ended on the East Coast) so they better get those ballots in.

Depends on the state, some will still count it if postmarked on Election Day.

In Florida, vote by mail requests terminate on November 2 and must be received no later than 7 PM on Election Day. Therefore, to ensure that the votes are counted, they should be sent by November 1 or 2 or hand-delivered to a voting station on Election Day itself

Thanks for the official word!

You're welcome.

Now for an interesting treat...here are some SOUTH Carolina early voting demographics

White: 108,256 (66.8%)
African-American: 52,936 (32.7%)
Hispanic: 638 (0.4%)
Unknown: 113 (0.1%)

WOW! Looks better than I expected.

[dspNY]

And some Wisconsin absentee stats for 10/26

Dane and Milwaukee (Dem counties) make up 29% of the early vote. They were 26% of the 2012 statewide vote.

Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington (Republican counties) make up 14.6% of the early vote. They were 12.3% of the 2012 statewide vote. So I think Clinton needs to shore up Wisconsin

[dspNY]

In Florida, Democrats have requested 3557 more absentee ballots + votes in VBM but the GOP has about a 35.5K lead in just ballots cast. Are some Dems requesting VBM ballots and deciding to vote in person?

They could just not be returning their ballots.

Or because they're no immediately filling out the ballots...

I mean like the election is 12 days away (because mail for today has already ended on the East Coast) so they better get those ballots in.

Depends on the state, some will still count it if postmarked on Election Day.

In Florida, vote by mail requests terminate on November 2 and must be received no later than 7 PM on Election Day. Therefore, to ensure that the votes are counted, they should be sent by November 1 or 2 or hand-delivered to a voting station on Election Day itself

Thanks for the official word!

You're welcome.

Now for an interesting treat...here are some SOUTH Carolina early voting demographics

White: 108,256 (66.8%)
African-American: 52,936 (32.7%)
Hispanic: 638 (0.4%)
Unknown: 113 (0.1%)

Whoa! Higher than Georgia (the white vote too though). What's it like in the past.

I think this is about normal for SC

[ApatheticAustrian]

i guess SC whites are even more lopsided anti-dem, otherwise reps couldn't win that state like that.

[Gass3268]

And some Wisconsin absentee stats for 10/26

Dane and Milwaukee (Dem counties) make up 29% of the early vote. They were 26% of the 2012 statewide vote.

Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington (Republican counties) make up 14.6% of the early vote. They were 12.3% of the 2012 statewide vote. So I think Clinton needs to shore up Wisconsin

Wisconsin is never decided in the 5 core counties, the outstate is what is important.

[Devout Centrist]

http://www.wkow.com//story/33488042/2016/10/26/city-of-madison-shatters-early-voting-record#.WBFOSrbiwOA.twitter

[Badger]

Good numbers from CNN
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/26/politics/early-voting-statistics-2016-election/index.html

Arizona
Dems ahead by 4,116 votes, a major improvement from their position at this time four years ago, when they trailed by 21,179.

Colorado
Democrats have outvoted Republicans by more than 10,000. At this point in 2012, Republicans had the advantage by about 7,600 votes.

Florida
Republicans currently hold an 18,120-vote advantage, a paltry amount compared to their 113,222-vote edge at this time in 2008.

Nevada
Democrats hold a nearly 15,000-vote lead, a slight improvement from their position in 2012.

North Carolina
Democrats better than their 2012 pace, but Black vote only 25% share vs 30% in 2012.

Utah
At this point in 2012, Republicans led Democrats in early voting by more than 31,000 voters. But so far this year, the GOP advantage is only 15,834.

Iowa
Democrats are ahead of Republicans in the latest early vote count, but their margin is lower than it was at this point in 2012, to the tune of about 7,200 votes

That's surprising about Nevada . from all I'd been reading I thought Democrats were absolutely romping in the early vote. I'd assumed compared to previous years , but apparently incorrectly .

[Ozymandias]

That's surprising about Nevada . from all I'd been reading I thought Democrats were absolutely romping in the early vote. I'd assumed compared to previous years , but apparently incorrectly .

They are romping-- they just also romped in 2012, when Obama won Nevada by 7 pts despite many polls suggesting otherwise.

[Crumpets]

Interesting vote tracker for North Carolina from Upshot:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

I don't know if they have one for other states.

[dspNY]

Democrats win by 45 votes in Washoe County in the in-person early vote today (4,051-4,006)

[Thomas D]

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn:

Clinton has an even larger 66 to 28 percent lead among those early voters (n=47) who did not vote in the 2012 election.

Re:North Carolina