The absentee/early vote thread

[Mehmentum]

Democrats win by 45 votes in Washoe County in the in-person early vote today (4,051-4,006)

Kind of underwhelming.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Democrats win by 45 votes in Washoe County in the in-person early vote today (4,051-4,006)

Kind of underwhelming.

Not really given the first couple of days.

[ApatheticAustrian]

not underwhelmung...more like deadly for republicans.

dems only lead by about 1k votes in 2012 in washoe early voting, but "cancelling" the second largest county, which has a rep edge, was enough to make all of nevada blue, since clark county is such a giant that all the rest can't compete.

killing all rep edge so early is the reason, the rep congressman from CD3 panicked.

[RJEvans]

Interesting vote tracker for North Carolina from Upshot:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

I don't know if they have one for other states.

I'm curious to see how accurate this may be.

[Panda Express]

Colorado Daily Update


Less ballots returned yesterday but Dems still expand their lead. Republicans are now running under what they were at this time in 2014 (and that was a mid-term!)


14 days to Election Day 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  166,605 (105,401)
Republicans  141,354 (145,824)
Independent 103,354 (77,285)

TOTAL 416,951 (332,050)

Total turnout up 26%

[ApatheticAustrian]

washoe county 2012.....




comparison is deadly atm.

and schale is atm deconstructing bloomberg's FL poll:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/with_replies?lang=de

[Dr. Arch]

washoe county 2012.....




comparison is deadly atm.

and schale is atm deconstructing bloomberg's FL poll:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/with_replies?lang=de

How is it at the moment? More favorable to D?

[ApatheticAustrian]

How is it at the moment? More favorable to D?

yeah, about doubled their advantage and without reps really winning a single day. (and i guess weekends are dem-friendly days anyway)

[NOVA Green]

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn:

Clinton has an even larger 66 to 28 percent lead among those early voters (n=47) who did not vote in the 2012 election.

Re:North Carolina

Looks like an extremely small sample size, (47) voters???

Still.... not particularly bad news although we'll need to see much more than this to make assumptions regarding those who have already voted that did not vote in 2012.

[dspNY]

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn:

Clinton has an even larger 66 to 28 percent lead among those early voters (n=47) who did not vote in the 2012 election.

Re:North Carolina

Looks like an extremely small sample size, (47) voters???

Still.... not particularly bad news although we'll need to see much more than this to make assumptions regarding those who have already voted that did not vote in 2012.

Very small sample size but we're also seeing evidence of this in Florida with Democrats turning out more infrequent voters

[Maxwell]

but but but trump is going to turnout new voters who have never voted before!

[Smash255]

What is the best link to see the N.C data breakout?   

The only thing I see on the B.O.E website links to a massive excel file

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 12,879,802 votes making up 27.9% of 2012's early vote!

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Is there any state so far where voter turnout has gone down? Regardless of winners I love the increase in turnout this cycle!

[ApatheticAustrian]

ofc there are...some states have changed laws and accessability of early voting.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

Some early votes so far
Arizona  Democrats 278,507    36.4%,   Republicans 296,495   38.7%
Colorado  Democrats 166,605   40.0%,   Republicans 141,354   33.9%
Florida     Democrats 830,341   40.8%,   Republicans 835,252   41.0%
Iowa        Democrats 156,535   45.7%,   Republicans 115,699   33.8%, About 40,836 lead!
Nevada     Democrats 105,543   45.7%,   Republicans  81,998   35.5%
North Carolina   Democrats 382,587   47.1%,  Republicans   231,940   28.6%

One question, how is the early vote in Florida now compared to the same time in 2012?

[Brittain33]

One question, how is the early vote in Florida now compared to the same time in 2012?

Every time I've seen this come up, the answer is that laws changed or data isn't available so people don't know.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

One question, how is the early vote in Florida now compared to the same time in 2012?

Every time I've seen this come up, the answer is that laws changed or data isn't available so people don't know.

I did some searching and the republicans had a 6% lead in 2012!
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=157569.500

Florida

Quote
Voted ballots
Party          Total             %
REP        504,940    45%
DEM        445,862    39%
IND        183,527    16%
Total     1,134,329    

Outstanding requests:
Party           Total              %
REP        575,069    39%
DEM        600,629    40%
IND        312,058    21%
Total     1,487,756    

Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/#storylink=cpy

[Gustaf]

From following the discussion here it seems like there are some states (like Iowa) where Democrats tend to dominate the early vote and others (like Florida) where Republicans do. Why is that?

[ApatheticAustrian]

not early voting in general....mail votes, and i guess this is about the dispositions of old people.

old iowans still hate the GOP i guess...and old inhabitants of FL are more conservative.

[HillOfANight]

Georgia: Doesn't look great for Clinton (compared to final early vote #s of previous years, but not safe for Trump either. Counties are required to have Saturday voting in 2 days which should help, plus sites dramatically expand in Gwinnett and others starting Monday the 31st.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164112.msg3507207#msg3507207

2008 Early Vote:
White: 60.4%
Black: 34.9%
Other: 4.7%

2012 Early Vote:
White: 59.0%
Black: 33.7%
Other: 7.3%

2016 Early Vote:
White: 61.6%
Black: 28.5%
Other: 9.9%

[psychprofessor]

Tom Bonier ‏@tbonier
OH Dem surge continues - Cuyahoga/Franklin now account for 21.4% of EV. Were 15.2% last Thursday, and 20% yesterday.

Belal Said ‏@BelalMSaid
@tbonier how does that compare to 2012?
Tom Bonier
Tom Bonier –  ‏@tbonier

@BelalMSaid 26.9%. So the upward trend will need to continue. But the early underperformance may just have been overwhelmed clerks.
5:18 AM - 27 Oct 2016

[Classic Conservative]

Tom Bonier ‏@tbonier
OH Dem surge continues - Cuyahoga/Franklin now account for 21.4% of EV. Were 15.2% last Thursday, and 20% yesterday.

Belal Said ‏@BelalMSaid
@tbonier how does that compare to 2012?
Tom Bonier
Tom Bonier –  ‏@tbonier

@BelalMSaid 26.9%. So the upward trend will need to continue. But the early underperformance may just have been overwhelmed clerks.
5:18 AM - 27 Oct 2016

https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectProject/status/791616786735038465

Michael McDonald
Michael McDonald‏ @ElectProject
This is the good news. The bad news for Dems is that Cuyahoga is -37% from 2012 voted level, Franklin is -28%

[ApatheticAustrian]

sounds like..other than solid dem NV...nobody can really see clear winner in NC/FL.

[Gass3268]

sounds like..other than solid dem NV...nobody can really see clear winner in NC/FL.

Did you see this Upshot article about North Carolina? They currently have Clinton winning the early vote 58.4-36.7 and based on that they have Clinton winning by 6 points, 49.1-43.1.