The absentee/early vote thread

[Gass3268]

Texas Tribune has a great early vote tracker that compares county numbers to 2012 and 2008.



https://apps.texastribune.org/texas-early-voting-tracker/?utm_campaign=trib-social&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=1477592335

This is an awesome page....

Running through the numbers looks like there is a major spike in voter turnout in the heavily Democratic strongholds of Dallas, Travis, and El Paso counties, not to mention a pretty decent bump in Harris County, which is not only the largest county in the state, but quite possibly a C +10 County this year, Hidalgo seems to represent a massive surge in the heavily Democratic Rio Grange Valley....

Bexar seems to have a slower increase in total EV numbers than most other urban/suburban counties on the graph, so it will be interesting to see how this trends in what I am expecting to be a +10-12 C county this year...

EVs also appear to be high in traditionally Republican suburban counties of DFW (Tarrant, Collins, and Denton) but this does not necessarily indicate an increase in total Republican vote margins compared to '08 and '12, considering that this could also indicate a significant number of new voter registrations of younger Latinos and Millennials voting Dem, plus defection of college educated Anglos. We'll see what the final outcome is in these counties, but Collins and Denton in particular look ripe for significant defection of traditional Republican leaning voters, and also have a fast growing and educated demographic.

Fort Bend County having this spike is definitely a positive, since it is a county that has been on the "flip list" of Texas suburban counties for quite some time, and has been rapidly trending D. compared to statewide averages.

Regarding Bexar, I suspect military turnout is substantially weaker this year than 2008/12.  The Hampton Roads part of VA is actually down in absentees vs. 2012 right now. 

I do think you are underestimating how Trumpy the DFW suburbs could be, particularly the Ft. Worth side.  We're now seeing polls from Oklahoma with Clinton < Obama after all.

The education levels of Collin (49.4%) and Denton (41.0%) would suggest that it is very different from Oklahoma (23.8%). Also Collin is only 59.39% non-Hispanic white and Denton is 60.87%, Oklahoma is 66.54%.

[The Other Castro]

10/27 Maine update:

[DINGO Joe]

I do think you are underestimating how Trumpy the DFW suburbs could be, particularly the Ft. Worth side.  We're now seeing polls from Oklahoma with Clinton < Obama after all.

A long long time ago Colin and Denton  could be viewed as Red River Valley country and similar to Oklahoma, but they are straight up suburbia now.  Even back when Ann Richards beat Clayton Williams, Republican women in Colin and Denton sick of his claptrap were integral in helping her win.

[Thomas D]

WBAL Baltimore News
@wbaltv11
Final update per MD State Board of Elections: 125,914 voters checked-in day one of early voting. Entire early voting period in 2012: 107,385

[HillOfANight]

http://www.cleveland.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/10/early_vote_numbers_in_ohio_sug.html

Regarding Ohio, topline #s are bad for Clinton, but explained as due to reduction in early voting compared to 2012, that should reverse this weekend.

- Counties where Obama won, requests are down 4%, especially in Cuyahoga, down 17%.
- Counties where Romney won, requests are up 11% compared to 2012.

Dem Spin
- elimination of the so-called Golden Week, meaning that Ohio voters have had seven fewer days to vote this year than they did in 2012.
- Democratic counties actually are casting more ballots per day than they did four years ago.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Republicans seem to win Washoe County (NV) today by about 300 votes....guess we are going to need the weekend vote to learn which direction the wind is blowing.

But:

Also Clark County turnout slowed today....low turnout days advance Republicans.

[Ebsy]

We won't know the final Clark County numbers until later. Ralston has tweeted that turnout was slowing down before only to see Clark County numbers surge to record highs by 9 PM.

[Gass3268]

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[Marokai Backbeat]

Ohio is depressing.

[Devout Centrist]

Ohio is depressing.

Nothing to really worry about yet. Clinton will probably win by 2.5% or so.

[Ebsy]

Ohio is depressing.

The modeling of the early vote has Democrats doing comparatively to 2012.

[ApatheticAustrian]

schale's tweets are super-interesting but he seems a little bit vague (i understand that we are going to know much more after this weekend).....in general he says it is fine but not good enough right now.

if the dems overtake the GOP and start banking votes, i guess we can sleep better.

[Virginiá]

WBAL Baltimore News
@wbaltv11
Final update per MD State Board of Elections: 125,914 voters checked-in day one of early voting. Entire early voting period in 2012: 107,385

Wow. Shame MD only holds legislative elections during midterms, else this year would probably be a jackpot for Democrats.

[psychprofessor]

schale's tweets are super-interesting but he seems a little bit vague (i understand that we are going to know much more after this weekend).....in general he says it is fine but not good enough right now.

if the dems overtake the GOP and start banking votes, i guess we can sleep better.

read between the lines, he's ecstatic

[Gass3268]

schale's tweets are super-interesting but he seems a little bit vague (i understand that we are going to know much more after this weekend).....in general he says it is fine but not good enough right now.

if the dems overtake the GOP and start banking votes, i guess we can sleep better.

read between the lines, he's ecstatic

This and he's privy to much more information than we are.

[ApatheticAustrian]

read between the lines, he's ecstatic

you are absolutely correct, i am just not sure if this is his personality as a professional democratic personality or a honest broker.

while...i am a natural doubter anyway. weekend will be great!

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Republicans seem to win Washoe County (NV) today by about 300 votes....guess we are going to need the weekend vote to learn which direction the wind is blowing.

But:

Also Clark County turnout slowed today....low turnout days advance Republicans.

Is this normal for a Candidate that is supposedly 6-9% ahead nationally to be having a hard time in Nevada and Ohio. What would you estimate based on this information?

[ApatheticAustrian]

Is this normal for a Candidate that is supposedly 6-9% ahead nationally to be having a hard time in Nevada and Ohio.

she is NOT having a hard time in NV.

(OH is to the right of the nation and one of the most perfectly-tailored states for trump at all)

in fact....she is weak in the northeast compared to obama and stroooong in the south and in CA.

so yeah, this works out just fine....just not at the same pacing in every state.

[KingSweden]

WBAL Baltimore News
@wbaltv11
Final update per MD State Board of Elections: 125,914 voters checked-in day one of early voting. Entire early voting period in 2012: 107,385

Wow. Shame MD only holds legislative elections during midterms, else this year would probably be a jackpot for Democrats.

Can Dems maximize their map much more in MD?

[Gass3268]

WBAL Baltimore News
@wbaltv11
Final update per MD State Board of Elections: 125,914 voters checked-in day one of early voting. Entire early voting period in 2012: 107,385

Wow. Shame MD only holds legislative elections during midterms, else this year would probably be a jackpot for Democrats.

Can Dems maximize their map much more in MD?

They lost some seats in 2014.

[Virginiá]

WBAL Baltimore News
@wbaltv11
Final update per MD State Board of Elections: 125,914 voters checked-in day one of early voting. Entire early voting period in 2012: 107,385

Wow. Shame MD only holds legislative elections during midterms, else this year would probably be a jackpot for Democrats.

Can Dems maximize their map much more in MD?

The Congressional map is maxed out, the State Senate could be beefed up a little bit more, and they could probably expand their State House majority by up to 15 - 20 seats or so.

But I don't know about a presidential year. These years are when the Democratic coalition is at its best, and in a state like Maryland that has a very large minority population, that could make a good bit of difference given the tendencies of young & non-white voters to sit out midterms.

I do know that their legislative terms are a bit redundant. Both chambers have 4 year terms and no staggered elections, so it seems pointless. They should at least have the House hold elections every 2 years.

[psychprofessor]

Nebraska, and specifically NE-02 looking good

Douglas #NE02
Requests
D 33,106 47%
R 24,621 35%
I 12,824 18%
Total 71,179

Returns
D 22,063 48%
R 16,145 35%
I 7,104 16%
Total 45,559

[ApatheticAustrian]

EXCLUSIVE FL early vote stat: Of the 2.47m votes cast as of this am,
1/5 (514k) cast by voters who didn't vote in 2012

 D 37%
NPA 24%
 R 34%
https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/791835826153979904

i wonder where they found soooo many unaffiliated voters in FL...hahah ahah ahaha......

[ApatheticAustrian]

more FL fun....

EXCLUSIVE: Of the 514k EIP & VBM who've voted in FL but who skipped 2012 or registered subsequently:

67% white

8% black

17% Hispanic


In FL, 53% of registered "Active" voters are women, 45% are men.

Of those who have voted as of this am...

54% women

44% men

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/791837496954978304

[ApatheticAustrian]

Of 998.2k Ds voted,

59.5% w

13.4% H

22.3% b

Of 1.01m Rs voted,

85.7% w

10.5% H

.7% b


https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/791841359892213760


seems like a strong hispanic GOP vote right now...and an abysmal black vote.