The absentee/early vote thread

[BoAtlantis]

Jon Ralston

"Dems won Clark by 3,600 votes on Friday - raw vote lead 40K. Same as '12 but percentage  lower because more voters. Detailed post coming."

[GeorgiaModerate]

yeah.....it is.

which brings me to the question.....does that mean you americans are able to vote right now but not between next friday and tuesday?

The rules vary from state to state; some states have no early voting at all, but what you said is probably true in most that do.  For more detail, https://ballotpedia.org/Early_voting is a good starting point.

[StatesPoll]

North Carolina Early Voting
Black voter shares: 30%(2012) -> 22%(10/29) Decreased by 26.6%
Hillary is finished in NC

Florida Early voting
Hillary is finished in FL

1) Vote by mails. 10/29/2016: REP +3.3% >= 2012 final results Rep +3%

2) Early voting in person. 10/28: DEM +3.34% much better than  2012 final results DEM +10%

3) Total:  3.253 Million voted.  REP 40.8% | DEM 40.1% | Ind 19.1%

REP 1.328 Million votes | DEM 1.305 Million. REP +0.7% (10/29/2016)

GOP is doing far much better than 2012. about +3.7% better.

(2012 final results of Early voting: DEM +3%.)


I. Florida Vote-By-Mail   10/29/2016 6:44AM

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Voted Ballots: 1.86 Million votes.

REP:  784K (42.15%) | DEM: 723K (38.87%) | Other 18.98%

REP: +3.28%. A bit batter than 2012.

(Vote-By-Mail 2012 final results : REP +3%)


II. Florida Early Voting In person.  10/29/2016 6:44AM
Voted(Total) : 1.393 Million votes.
REP: 543.9K (39.05%) |  DEM: 582.4K (41.81%) | Other 19.14%
DEM +2.76%
very good numbers for TRUMP.
Because in 2012 final results, it was Dem +10% (DEM 46 : REP 36)


 III. Vote-by-mail(Total Requests) in BIG 3 Dem county increae % = getting down

I’m sure GOP gonna expand leads of vote-by-mail.

Miami-Dade: 386K(10/27) -> 395K(10/29) = +2.3% in 2days (+1.15% / day)

Broward: 268K(10/27) -> 270K(10/29) = +0.74% in 2days (+0.37% / day)

Orange: 204K(10/27) ->208.3K(10/29) = +2.1% in 2days (+1.05% / day)

[StatesPoll]

Based on recent ealry voting

FL+NC+OH in TRUMP's pocket.

so TRUMP just needs 10 EV more.

WI or NV+NH or MI or PA

#Trump2016

[Tender Branson]

It seems the early vote in NC, FL and NV is slowly trending the way of Trump/Republicans.

And in CO (where Dems are currently way ahead, but virtually nothing is in yet) the email scandal comes at the worst possible time for Hillary because most voters will fill out their ballot this weekend and over the next week with peak mail returns in about 1 week ... and the email stuff will dominate the whole next week.

[JerryArkansas]

Based on recent ealry voting

FL+NC+OH in TRUMP's pocket.

so TRUMP just needs 10 EV more.

WI or NV+NH or MI or PA

#Trump2016

The stupid is strong with you.

[StatesPoll]

Based on recent ealry voting

FL+NC+OH in TRUMP's pocket.

so TRUMP just needs 10 EV more.

WI or NV+NH or MI or PA

#Trump2016

The stupid is strong with you.

Then you should show some facts instead of mumbling

[JerryArkansas]

It seems the early vote in NC, FL and NV is slowly trending the way of Trump/Republicans.

And in CO (where Dems are currently way ahead, but virtually nothing is in yet) the email scandal comes at the worst possible time for Hillary because most voters will fill out their ballot this weekend and over the next week with peak mail returns in about 1 week ... and the email stuff will dominate the whole next week.

Except it isn't.  But continue with your concern trolling.

[OneJ]

It seems the early vote in NC, FL and NV is slowly trending the way of Trump/Republicans.

And in CO (where Dems are currently way ahead, but virtually nothing is in yet) the email scandal comes at the worst possible time for Hillary because most voters will fill out their ballot this weekend and over the next week with peak mail returns in about 1 week ... and the email stuff will dominate the whole next week.

The emails won't damage Hillary as much as you think it will in all honesty.

[StatesPoll]

It seems the early vote in NC, FL and NV is slowly trending the way of Trump/Republicans.

And in CO (where Dems are currently way ahead, but virtually nothing is in yet) the email scandal comes at the worst possible time for Hillary because most voters will fill out their ballot this weekend and over the next week with peak mail returns in about 1 week ... and the email stuff will dominate the whole next week.

CO is interesting.

at the beginning DEM bragged D+10% BLAH BLAH BLAH     

Now it is D+3.9%
(I know it was slightlly +R in 2012)

[ApatheticAustrian]

i can with some mental tricks understand how people could doubt FL/NC but...how in 7 hells is hard-early-voting republican nightmare NV a problem?

[Tender Branson]

It seems the early vote in NC, FL and NV is slowly trending the way of Trump/Republicans.

And in CO (where Dems are currently way ahead, but virtually nothing is in yet) the email scandal comes at the worst possible time for Hillary because most voters will fill out their ballot this weekend and over the next week with peak mail returns in about 1 week ... and the email stuff will dominate the whole next week.

CO is interesting.

at the beginning DEM bragged D+10% BLAH BLAH BLAH     

Now it is D+3.9%
(I know it was slightlly +R in 2012)

For a Trump win, CO will likely need to be at least R+5 by Nov. 7 when about 90% of ballots are returned.

Maybe R+2 or R+3 if the Indys are going strongly for the Republicans.

But as long as Dems are ahead with the returned ballots, it's about 99% likely that Hillary will win there.

[StatesPoll]

i can with some mental tricks understand how people could doubt FL/NC but...how in 7 hells is hard-early-voting republican nightmare NV a problem?

hahahaha

nightmare?

didn't u dem bragged D+18% in NV?

Now it is D+8% (Same as 2012 level)

don't u think it gonna be dead heat in next week?


hahahahahahahahahahahahaha    

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is States Poll the lovechild of Donald Trump and nkpatel?

[StatesPoll]

Is States Poll the lovechild of Donald Trump and nkpatel?

as I said already. show me some facts instead of mumbling. ok?

[Ozymandias]

Then you should show some facts instead of mumbling

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  2h2 hours ago Manhattan, NY
"Clinton has an 18 point lead in NC early voting with more than 1 million votes cast, according to our estimates"

This isn't like other years when you could just use Rep and Dem registration ID to safely infer voting leads-- a significant number of registered Republicans in both NC and Florida will be voting for Clinton, as indicated by the Upshot's model extrapolating from their polling.

[StatesPoll]

Then you should show some facts instead of mumbling

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  2h2 hours ago Manhattan, NY
"Clinton has an 18 point lead in NC early voting with more than 1 million votes cast, according to our estimates"

This isn't like other years when you could just use Rep and Dem registration ID to safely infer voting leads-- a significant number of registered Republicans in both NC and Florida will be voting for Clinton, as indicated by the Upshot's model extrapolating from their polling.

Blah blah blah so what?

Dem won of NC ealry voting but lost in final results

the point is GOP is doing better than 2012

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cv7tYZXXEAAfOXT.jpg

[Speed of Sound]

Then you should show some facts instead of mumbling

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  2h2 hours ago Manhattan, NY
"Clinton has an 18 point lead in NC early voting with more than 1 million votes cast, according to our estimates"

This isn't like other years when you could just use Rep and Dem registration ID to safely infer voting leads-- a significant number of registered Republicans in both NC and Florida will be voting for Clinton, as indicated by the Upshot's model extrapolating from their polling.

You're going to come out very disappointed with the conversation you just started.

[Ozymandias]

From latest Quinnipiac poll: https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2397

"North Carolina likely voters who cast early ballots go 62 - 34 percent for Clinton."

[dspNY]

Then you should show some facts instead of mumbling

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  2h2 hours ago Manhattan, NY
"Clinton has an 18 point lead in NC early voting with more than 1 million votes cast, according to our estimates"

This isn't like other years when you could just use Rep and Dem registration ID to safely infer voting leads-- a significant number of registered Republicans in both NC and Florida will be voting for Clinton, as indicated by the Upshot's model extrapolating from their polling.

Blah blah blah so what?

Dem won of NC ealry voting but lost in final results

the point is GOP is doing better than 2012

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cv7tYZXXEAAfOXT.jpg

Are they? Trump's Republican support is 10% less than Romney's and his Democratic support is virtually zero

[Ozymandias]

Clinton is up 54-41 among 26% of early Florida voters in FAU poll (http://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepipolls/index.aspx#.WBEZ1-ArLct)

So Clinton right now appears to be dominating the early vote in both NC and FL-- we should get a better sense of whether that continues as more polls with sizable numbers of early voters get released next week.

[StatesPoll]

From latest Quinnipiac poll: https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2397

"North Carolina likely voters who cast early ballots go 62 - 34 percent for Clinton."

wth believe that skewed poll ?

get this trhough your head.    

Black voter turnouts 26.6% decreased compare with 2012.

[StatesPoll]

Then you should show some facts instead of mumbling

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  2h2 hours ago Manhattan, NY
"Clinton has an 18 point lead in NC early voting with more than 1 million votes cast, according to our estimates"

This isn't like other years when you could just use Rep and Dem registration ID to safely infer voting leads-- a significant number of registered Republicans in both NC and Florida will be voting for Clinton, as indicated by the Upshot's model extrapolating from their polling.

Blah blah blah so what?

Dem won of NC ealry voting but lost in final results

the point is GOP is doing better than 2012

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cv7tYZXXEAAfOXT.jpg

Are they? Trump's Republican support is 10% less than Romney's and his Democratic support is virtually zero

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject Oct 28

NC Dems made up lost ground from last week of poll closures, now running -6.9% behind 2012. Reps actually running +0.3% ahead of 2012

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Then you should show some facts instead of mumbling

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  2h2 hours ago Manhattan, NY
"Clinton has an 18 point lead in NC early voting with more than 1 million votes cast, according to our estimates"

This isn't like other years when you could just use Rep and Dem registration ID to safely infer voting leads-- a significant number of registered Republicans in both NC and Florida will be voting for Clinton, as indicated by the Upshot's model extrapolating from their polling.

You're going to come out very disappointed with the conversation you just started.

I'm not saying he is wrong, but their latest poll was conducted when Trump was 7% down nationally efter a terrible one-month-long news cycle. His favorability among R was ~60% back then, before Obamacare "gate" it was about 70%, right now it might be even higher. He is even doing again better among Indys (so it is not enough data/evidence for that).

[dspNY]

From latest Quinnipiac poll: https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2397

"North Carolina likely voters who cast early ballots go 62 - 34 percent for Clinton."

wth believe that skewed poll ?

get this trhough your head.    

Black voter turnouts 26.6% decreased compare with 2012.

Clinton is winning independents and a slice of Republicans in these early vote subsamples. Trump is winning virtually zero Democrats. That's how you get Clinton winning by 20-25 points in the NC early vote when she's winning the Party ID battle by 15