The absentee/early vote thread

[NOVA Green]

Early voting numbers in Harris County, Texas looking very favorable for Clinton:

57% Female, much more heavily Latino, 13% of EV are first time voters.

Also, in 2016 a study indicated that 52% of county respidents identify as Democrats versus only 30% Republicans.


http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/houston/article/Early-voting-numbers-surge-in-Harris-County-10421186.php

[Xing]

Hillary's got NV. The vote gap is pretty much identical to 2012, and even if there are some crossover votes for Trump from WCWs, there are certainly some crossover votes for Hillary as well, from Latinos.

[Ozymandias]

Breakdown of early voting in each state

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/29/where-early-voting-hints-at-good-news-for-hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump/

This article has a lot of nice summary graphs-- thanks for the link

[BoAtlantis]

Breakdown of early voting in each state

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/29/where-early-voting-hints-at-good-news-for-hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump/

This article has a lot of nice summary graphs-- thanks for the link

My pleasure

NC Status as of 10/28

                         Clinton          Trump         Clinton       Trump
Already voted     686,000         462,000    56.7%     38.2%
Yet to vote        1,491,000   1,440,000    46.4%   44.8%
Total estimates   2,177,000   1,903,000   49.2%   43.0%

[mark_twain]

Voted for Clinton in GA today!

[Dr. Arch]

Voted for Clinton in GA today!

You rock!

[BoAtlantis]

Voted for Clinton in GA today!

Which county? Long line?

[Badger]

Based on recent ealry voting

FL+NC+OH in TRUMP's pocket.

so TRUMP just needs 10 EV more.

WI or NV+NH or MI or PA

#Trump2016

alright you twerp. it seems we're going to need a rehash.

$500 Trump loses and I'm giving you 2-1 . I'll further give you 3-2 odds he loses FL.

Put your money where your mouth is here and now, or S.T.F.U.

If you continue to post your unmeritorious crap without taking my challenge, you are officially an honorless poltroon--i.e. my bitch.

Ball's in your court, chump. Put up or shut up.

[Speed of Sound]

Badger drops in and absolutely lays it down. Nice.

[BoAtlantis]

Badger drops in and absolutely lays it down. Nice.

I've always wondered where Trump supporters would put their money if they had to bet their life savings on it.

My guess is that they would also probably bet Hillary like the rational people. But since talk is cheap, they are being intellectually dishonest with themselves.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This thread is strangely quiet today. Throughout the past week I've heard people say that the weekend results would be crucial, so how is it going?

[Dr. Arch]

This thread is strangely quiet today. Throughout the past week I've heard people say that the weekend results would be crucial, so how is it going?

No updates on the site yet. I've been tracking sporadically throughout the day.

[Speed of Sound]

This thread is strangely quiet today. Throughout the past week I've heard people say that the weekend results would be crucial, so how is it going?

No updates on the site yet. I've been tracking sporadically throughout the day.

Yeah, it'll probably be 8 or 9 when Schale, Ralston, etc. come in with their info for the night.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

This thread is strangely quiet today. Throughout the past week I've heard people say that the weekend results would be crucial, so how is it going?

Ralston earlier around 10-11am said that turn out is 700 below Friday in Nevada. Not good for the democrats.

[Illuminati Blood Drinker]

This thread is strangely quiet today. Throughout the past week I've heard people say that the weekend results would be crucial, so how is it going?

Souls to the Polls happens on Sunday, you paranoid Chicken Littleing twat.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

This thread is strangely quiet today. Throughout the past week I've heard people say that the weekend results would be crucial, so how is it going?

Souls to the Polls happens on Sunday, you paranoid Chicken Littleing twat.

[Gass3268]

This thread is strangely quiet today. Throughout the past week I've heard people say that the weekend results would be crucial, so how is it going?

Ralston earlier around 10-11am said that turn out is 700 below Friday in Nevada. Not good for the democrats.

He also made the point that Friday was a holiday in Nevada.

[Badger]

Badger drops in and absolutely lays it down. Nice.

I've always wondered where Trump supporters would put their money if they had to bet their life savings on it.

My guess is that they would also probably bet Hillary like the rational people. But since talk is cheap, they are being intellectually dishonest with themselves.

exactly. i will win either poll states' money, silence, or honor. anyway it's a victory.

[windjammer]

Any news about Florida?

[BoAtlantis]

Any news about Florida?

Was mentioned earlier but here you go.

http://steveschale.com/

Day five of in person early voting looked like this:

Vote By Mail:    128,058 (+1K from yesterday) votes, GOP won (43-36-21), or just under 10K votes

In Person Early Vote: 265,310 votes (up about 1,500 from yesterday), Dems won (40-39-21) or just under 1K votes

393,368 votes were counted, and GOP won the day by about 9,000.

This brings us into total votes 3,258,034 with leading GOP up about 0.6%.

One other big picture number: There are now almost 70,000 more Democrats in Florida with a vote by mail ballot that they have not returned.  Data does show that Democrats have been returning theirs as quick, if not quicker than Republicans, but had a higher number of post-October 1 requests. Because Democrats actually have 5,000 more overall requests, the GOP VBM numbers should level out.  Even at current lower Dem return rates, the GOP advantage should reduce by about 20,000 by election day, given the Dems larger number of outstanding ballots.

Essentially GOP is holding Democrats off in the raw total votes and expanding the lead but that's because Democrats have many more outstanding absentee mail requests.

Higher % of GOP votes are also from already likely voters, whereas higher % of Democrats votes are from low propensity voters.

[Speed of Sound]

Those numbers are from the mid morning, just as an FYI.

[Gass3268]

The numbers out of Hillsborough County (+6.4% Dem lead) feel pretty good. It's predicted correctly 19 of the last 20 Presidents.

[OneJ]

Kyle Griffin on Twitter: Out of 12 battlegrounds, DEM early/absentee voters outpacing GOP in 8: CO, IA, MI, NC, NV, OH, VA, WI —NBC analysis of TargetSmart data.

Link: https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/792478146612387840

[Speed of Sound]

@RalstonReports  17s seconds ago

Turnout today in Clark County is going to be higher than Friday. 24,000 by 3 PM. It was 22,000 at same time Friday.



Any fear about turnout being down early in the day seems to have been unnecessary (...as usual).

[Dr. Arch]

@RalstonReports  17s seconds ago

Turnout today in Clark County is going to be higher than Friday. 24,000 by 3 PM. It was 22,000 at same time Friday.

#BS-E-Mail Motivation