The absentee/early vote thread

[OneJ]

IS EVERYONE READY FOR SOULS TO THE POLLS?!?!

PRAISE THE LORD!!!

HALLELUJAH!!!!

I can feel the Holy Ghost right now to be honest!

[Adam Griffin]

Not sure if anybody has posted this yet, but it's kind of interesting:

https://floridaturnout.com/

[Erich Maria Remarque]

do not-registered UAF matter in any way?

they are part of the dem/rep-numbers anyway, not?

Cohn is pointing out that there's a difference in how people are registered with the state, and how they identify themselves when a pollster calls.  I believe there are more voters who are registered as unaffiliated (because they didn't bother to enroll) but then identify with their current lean when they are called.  My recollection (maybe I'm wrong) is that a lot of young people are registered unaffiliated, but identify as Democratic.

Yep. And, OTOH, many current R's/conservatives are self-IDing as independents, even though they aren't registered as such. Both just point to a need for a different lens according to whether you're looking at EV data or poll #s.

Yep!  This is the big problem with re-weighing to party ID.  Imagine both things are true.  You have young, independent-registered voters identifying as Democrats.  You also have Republican-registered voters identifying as independent, because they don't like the party.

That means your poll will show as having too many Democrats, and too few Republicans.  It also means your self-identified Independent sample is more Republican than actual, registered Independents.  That's because it's lacking a lot of Democratic-leaning Independents (those young voters who are IDing as Democrats), and includes a lot of registered Republicans (those registered Republicans identifying as Independents).

If this happens, your sample should be more Democratic, and less Republican, than registered voters.  Re-weighting to party ID will mess this up.  Also, because your self-IDed Independents are a lot more Republican than actual Independents, re-weighting to party ID will further skew the sample Republican.

(Sorry, I'm sure y'all know this, just my daily Bill Mitchell antidote)

In Florida it might be the other way round (OBS. it is based just on one poll, might be an outlier).

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/30/upshot/florida-poll.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Though

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

do not-registered UAF matter in any way?

they are part of the dem/rep-numbers anyway, not?

Cohn is pointing out that there's a difference in how people are registered with the state, and how they identify themselves when a pollster calls.  I believe there are more voters who are registered as unaffiliated (because they didn't bother to enroll) but then identify with their current lean when they are called.  My recollection (maybe I'm wrong) is that a lot of young people are registered unaffiliated, but identify as Democratic.

Yep. And, OTOH, many current R's/conservatives are self-IDing as independents, even though they aren't registered as such. Both just point to a need for a different lens according to whether you're looking at EV data or poll #s.

Yep!  This is the big problem with re-weighing to party ID.  Imagine both things are true.  You have young, independent-registered voters identifying as Democrats.  You also have Republican-registered voters identifying as independent, because they don't like the party.

That means your poll will show as having too many Democrats, and too few Republicans.  It also means your self-identified Independent sample is more Republican than actual, registered Independents.  That's because it's lacking a lot of Democratic-leaning Independents (those young voters who are IDing as Democrats), and includes a lot of registered Republicans (those registered Republicans identifying as Independents).

If this happens, your sample should be more Democratic, and less Republican, than registered voters.  Re-weighting to party ID will mess this up.  Also, because your self-IDed Independents are a lot more Republican than actual Independents, re-weighting to party ID will further skew the sample Republican.

(Sorry, I'm sure y'all know this, just my daily Bill Mitchell antidote)

In Florida it might be the other way round (OBS. it is based just on one poll, might be an outlier).

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/30/upshot/florida-poll.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Though

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This isn't surprising. Plenty of Panhandle whites register as Dem despite never voting that way.

[BoAtlantis]

[Erich Maria Remarque]

This isn't surprising. Plenty of Panhandle whites register as Dem despite never voting that way.

As I understood, Trump is extra strong (comparing to other Republicans) in this segment. The point is that one should be extra cautious with "extrapolating" early voting data.

[The Other Castro]

10/30:


Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  6m6 minutes ago
Dems continue to make up lost ground in NC with the expansion of polling locations. Down -4.0% from 2012 levels today, was -4.7% y'day.

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  4m4 minutes ago
Like Georgia yesterday, NC early voters became younger. Age 60+ went from 47.8% to 46.0% (-1.8%) of early voters in one day

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  1m1 minute ago
Today is the critical "souls to polls" day for African-American churches in North Carolina. There is no NC Sunday in-person voting next week.

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  43s44 seconds ago
More NC Dems voted yesterday than in 2012 (+7,062), dispelling pundit speculation that Comey letter would slow down Dem voting

[Gass3268]

Based on polling, I'm starting to think that Hillary's getting a % of Registered Republicans and unaffiliateds in the early vote.

[The Other Castro]

Based on polling, I'm starting to think that Hillary's getting a % of Registered Republicans and unaffiliateds in the early vote.

Regarding registered unafilliateds, most definitely. The kind of numbers in the early voter polls would probably not be possible without sizeable Clinton strength in that group.

[JerryArkansas]

In NC yesterday, 7062 more Democrats voted than in 2012 on that same day.  Turnout doesn't seem to be taking a hit.

[heatcharger]

10/30:
Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  1m1 minute ago
Today is the critical "souls to polls" day for African-American churches in North Carolina. There is no NC Sunday in-person voting next week.

Pisses me off so much that they did that. I hope they feel energized to vote because of the NC GOP's efforts to disenfranchise them.

[dspNY]

In NC yesterday, 7062 more Democrats voted than in 2012 on that same day.  Turnout doesn't seem to be taking a hit.

We're absolutely livid with Comey

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/792733751063121921

"Yesterday was a lackluster day of early voting for Dems in Florida...only 3.5k more Ds than Rs voted EIP. In '12, Ds>Rs on 1st Sat by 40k"

Coupled with new polls from Florida today, no bueno.

[Speed of Sound]

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/792733751063121921

"Yesterday was a lackluster day of early voting for Dems in Florida...only 3.5k more Ds than Rs voted EIP. In '12, Ds>Rs on 1st Sat by 40k"

Coupled with new polls from Florida today, no bueno.

Now those are some not so great numbers. It's offset a little bit, as he notes after this, that unaffiliated voters in FL this cycle look to be and should be breaking hard to HRC, but that's still not a great number.

[BoAtlantis]

"In 2008, the early voting calendar was similar to this one, though the GOP went in with a much larger VBM lead.  If memory serves me right, it was the weekend when Democrats overtook the GOP. "


So if Democrats haven't taken the lead in raw votes by the end of the day, they're in trouble.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i think it would be intellectually honest to assume atm that mister trump is going to win florida.

if not we are dealing with changes, which couldn't have been polled, like a large cross-over-vote/haaaaard break of non-aff.

[Dr. Arch]

"In 2008, the early voting calendar was similar to this one, though the GOP went in with a much larger VBM lead.  If memory serves me right, it was the weekend when Democrats overtook the GOP. "


So if Democrats haven't taken the lead in raw votes by the end of the day, they're in trouble.

What state are you referring to?

[BoAtlantis]

"In 2008, the early voting calendar was similar to this one, though the GOP went in with a much larger VBM lead.  If memory serves me right, it was the weekend when Democrats overtook the GOP. "


So if Democrats haven't taken the lead in raw votes by the end of the day, they're in trouble.

What state are you referring to?

Sorry, FL

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/792733751063121921

"Yesterday was a lackluster day of early voting for Dems in Florida...only 3.5k more Ds than Rs voted EIP. In '12, Ds>Rs on 1st Sat by 40k"

Coupled with new polls from Florida today, no bueno.

Now those are some not so great numbers. It's offset a little bit, as he notes after this, that unaffiliated voters in FL this cycle look to be and should be breaking hard to HRC, but that's still not a great number.

wait a minute y'all. as a commentator in Smith's feed said, and Smith acknowledged, 1st Saturday in 12 was also the first dat of EIV. True?

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/792733751063121921

"Yesterday was a lackluster day of early voting for Dems in Florida...only 3.5k more Ds than Rs voted EIP. In '12, Ds>Rs on 1st Sat by 40k"

Coupled with new polls from Florida today, no bueno.

Now those are some not so great numbers. It's offset a little bit, as he notes after this, that unaffiliated voters in FL this cycle look to be and should be breaking hard to HRC, but that's still not a great number.

wait a minute y'all. as a commentator in Smith's feed said, and Smith acknowledged, 1st Saturday in 12 was also the first dat of EIV. True?

Which is why 2008 is the better comparison. But even 2008 is not an apple to apple comparison because there are much greater unaffiliated # breaking for Hillary this year.

But even beyond that, she needs to be performing better than right now if she wants to win by 1-2%.

[Speed of Sound]

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/792733751063121921

"Yesterday was a lackluster day of early voting for Dems in Florida...only 3.5k more Ds than Rs voted EIP. In '12, Ds>Rs on 1st Sat by 40k"

Coupled with new polls from Florida today, no bueno.

Now those are some not so great numbers. It's offset a little bit, as he notes after this, that unaffiliated voters in FL this cycle look to be and should be breaking hard to HRC, but that's still not a great number.

wait a minute y'all. as a commentator in Smith's feed said, and Smith acknowledged, 1st Saturday in 12 was also the first dat of EIV. True?

Ah, interesting. Thanks for the clarification. We'll see what Schale has to say if/when he updates today. Thanks!

[ApatheticAustrian]

wait a minute y'all. as a commentator in Smith's feed said, and Smith acknowledged, 1st Saturday in 12 was also the first dat of EIV. True?

you are correct.

just read that early voting in 2012 started 5 days after the last debate, means october 27th...





which was a saturday.

[BoAtlantis]

"Percentage of all Vote-by-Mail (VBM) ballots cast by Hispanics:

2016 =  12.9%
2012 = 9.5%

Percentage of all Early In-Person (EIP) ballots cast by Hispanics:

2016 = 14.2%
2012 = 9.9%"

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/10/29/an-electionsmith-exclusive-floridas-latest-party-raceethnicity-age-turnout-figures-as-of-this-morning/

As of this morning, some 3.23m of the state’s 12.7m active registered voters have cast Vote-by-Mail or Early In-Person ballots in Florida. So, 25.5% of active voters on the rolls have already turned out to vote in the Sunshine State.

Party Turnout

29.4% of 4.5m active registered Republicans have voted.
27.0% of 4.8m active registered Democrats have voted.
17.6% of 3.0m active registered No Party Affiliates have voted.

Racial/Ethnic Turnout

28.1% of 8.2m active registered Whites have voted.
20.6% of 1.7m active registered Blacks have voted.
21.4% of 2.0m active registered Hispanics have voted.

Age Turnout

41% of the 4.5m voters 60 and older have voted.
25.6% of the 3.3m voters 45-59 have voted.
14.7% of the 2.3m voters 30-44 have voted.
9.5% of the 2.0m voters 18-29 have voted.

[BoAtlantis]

"NV early voting blog updated!
Dem firewall in Clark close to 44,000. Statewide lead above 31,000. A lot like 2012."

[swf541]

"NV early voting blog updated!
Dem firewall in Clark close to 44,000. Statewide lead above 31,000. A lot like 2012."

Nevada seems to be looking pretty good