The absentee/early vote thread

[PollsDontLie]

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/10/30/exclusive-in-florida-no-party-affiliation-npa-voters-and-hispanics-who-skipped-2012-or-werent-registered-are-flocking-to-the-polls/

- Republicans are cannibalizing 2012 Election Day voters at a higher rate than Democrats: 18.7% of the 1.51m Republicans who’ve voted thus far in Florida waited in 2012 to cast a ballot on Election Day; 16.8% of the 1.43m Democrats who’ve voted to date voted on Election Day four years ago.

- Over 29% of the 476k Hispanics who’ve cast ballots thru yesterday are either new to the registration books or skipped the 2012 election. This is true for only 1/5 of the 2.5m white voters who’ve voted, and 17% of the 391k black voters who’ve cast ballots thus far in 2016.

I get why the cannibalization could be bad for Rs, but your second point does not add up for me.  So what you're saying is that votes for those who are new or skipped the 2012 election break down as follows?

Hispanic: 138k
Black: 66k
White: 500k

In other words, there are 2.5 times as many white voters who are new or who didn't vote in 2012 than there are hispanic or black voters.  How is this bad for Rs again?

A good portion of those white voters who didn't vote in 2012 are young

Yes, if the proportion of white voters that fit into this category skewed overwhelmingly young, that would be bad for Rs, but we don't have the statistics to back that up.

[fldemfunds]

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/10/30/exclusive-in-florida-no-party-affiliation-npa-voters-and-hispanics-who-skipped-2012-or-werent-registered-are-flocking-to-the-polls/

- Republicans are cannibalizing 2012 Election Day voters at a higher rate than Democrats: 18.7% of the 1.51m Republicans who’ve voted thus far in Florida waited in 2012 to cast a ballot on Election Day; 16.8% of the 1.43m Democrats who’ve voted to date voted on Election Day four years ago.

- Over 29% of the 476k Hispanics who’ve cast ballots thru yesterday are either new to the registration books or skipped the 2012 election. This is true for only 1/5 of the 2.5m white voters who’ve voted, and 17% of the 391k black voters who’ve cast ballots thus far in 2016.

Those NPA Hispanic voters were the group that Nate Cohn said his poll would not be able to catch. 29% of 476K is 138K new voters. They're probably breaking about 3-1 for Clinton too. That's part of how she can lead by 13-15 points in the early vote when party ID stats are even

This is what I've been saying to everyone who is nervous. NPAs are usually unaffiliated dems in FL. The fact that party reg is even, means Hillary is probably up 3-5% right now, at least. She's going to win FL by 5%+.

[HillOfANight]

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/10/30/exclusive-in-florida-no-party-affiliation-npa-voters-and-hispanics-who-skipped-2012-or-werent-registered-are-flocking-to-the-polls/

- Republicans are cannibalizing 2012 Election Day voters at a higher rate than Democrats: 18.7% of the 1.51m Republicans who’ve voted thus far in Florida waited in 2012 to cast a ballot on Election Day; 16.8% of the 1.43m Democrats who’ve voted to date voted on Election Day four years ago.

- Over 29% of the 476k Hispanics who’ve cast ballots thru yesterday are either new to the registration books or skipped the 2012 election. This is true for only 1/5 of the 2.5m white voters who’ve voted, and 17% of the 391k black voters who’ve cast ballots thus far in 2016.

I get why the cannibalization could be bad for Rs, but your second point does not add up for me.  So what you're saying is that votes for those who are new or skipped the 2012 election break down as follows?

Hispanic: 138k
Black: 66k
White: 500k

In other words, there are 2.5 times as many white voters who are new or who didn't vote in 2012 than there are hispanic or black voters COMBINED.  How is this bad for Rs again?

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/30/upshot/florida-poll.html

Mrs. Clinton actually leads among voters who are unaffiliated with a major party —In this case, it’s by a 10-point margin.

[Minnesota Mike]

A low turnout tie in Washoe county NV.

https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

Sunday, October 30, 2016
Democratic - 1,888
Republican - 1,873
TOTAL - 4,764

At this point a tie day in Washoe favors Hillary.

All the Rural counties are closed for EV today so that leaves only Clark.

[Speed of Sound]

A low turnout tie in Washoe county NV.

https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

Sunday, October 30, 2016
Democratic - 1,888
Republican - 1,873
TOTAL - 4,764

At this point a tie day in Washoe favors Hillary.

All the Rural counties are closed for EV today so that leaves only Clark.

That's a good result indeed. Hopefully that means that the margin will be the same in Clark as yesterday, since this is the same as Washoe's yesterday. If it's D +2k in Clark or so, that's 46k in Clark, just a little underneath what Ralston called a blue Nevada.

[Ozymandias]

"Hispanic Turnout is the the Big Story in Florida… "

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/10/30/exclusive-in-florida-no-party-affiliation-npa-voters-and-hispanics-who-skipped-2012-or-werent-registered-are-flocking-to-the-polls/

"The story of the election in Florida thus far is that No Party Affiliates and Hispanics who sat out (or who’ve registered since the 2012 General Election) appear to be much more engaged in the Florida election than other partisan or racial/ethnic groups."

"Over 29% of the 476k Hispanics who’ve cast ballots thru yesterday are either new to the registration books or skipped the 2012 election. This is true for only 1/5 of the 2.5m white voters who’ve voted, and 17% of the 391k black voters who’ve cast ballots thus far in 2016."

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

A low turnout tie in Washoe county NV.

https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

Sunday, October 30, 2016
Democratic - 1,888
Republican - 1,873
TOTAL - 4,764

At this point a tie day in Washoe favors Hillary.

All the Rural counties are closed for EV today so that leaves only Clark.

That isn't a tie, but a win for Hillary.

[Panda Express]

Very happy to see that the Reid machine is burying Trump in Nevada. A great parting gift from a great senator.

[swf541]

A low turnout tie in Washoe county NV.

https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

Sunday, October 30, 2016
Democratic - 1,888
Republican - 1,873
TOTAL - 4,764

At this point a tie day in Washoe favors Hillary.

All the Rural counties are closed for EV today so that leaves only Clark.

That isn't a tie, but a win for Hillary.

Yep, isnt that a 15 vote win?

[ApatheticAustrian]

don't really get the cannibalization theory right now, since republicans are in fact leading in FL.....AND according to polls more trump voters still want to vote.

would need the UNAFF to be real gamechangers this time.

@NV...trump is toast.

[Minnesota Mike]

A low turnout tie in Washoe county NV.

https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

Sunday, October 30, 2016
Democratic - 1,888
Republican - 1,873
TOTAL - 4,764

At this point a tie day in Washoe favors Hillary.

All the Rural counties are closed for EV today so that leaves only Clark.

That isn't a tie, but a win for Hillary.

OK if you have to nitpick it's a win for Hillary. I suppose you like polls with decimal points to

[Speed of Sound]

A low turnout tie in Washoe county NV.

https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

Sunday, October 30, 2016
Democratic - 1,888
Republican - 1,873
TOTAL - 4,764

At this point a tie day in Washoe favors Hillary.

All the Rural counties are closed for EV today so that leaves only Clark.

That isn't a tie, but a win for Hillary.

OK if you have to nitpick it's a win for Hillary. I suppose you like polls with decimal points to

Well, the point also is that slight wins in Washoe are a good sign state-wide, since Washoe is a little to the right of state #s recently.

[fldemfunds]

don't really get the cannibalization theory right now, since republicans are in fact leading in FL.....AND according to polls more trump voters still want to vote.

would need the UNAFF to be real gamechangers this time.

@NV...trump is toast.

Because likely voters are reliable. If someone has voted in 3/3 of the last presidential elections, then with less effort or no effort, they're likely to vote in this one. So if you go into election day and Reps have 50% of their most reliable votes in, but dems have 25% of their most reliable votes, you can guess who is more likely than not to have the better election day.

Now regarding the Republican lead. It's less than 1%. Florida is complicate for party registration purposes, but less so than in 2008. At this same point in 2008, Republicans led in total votes by approximately 6%. They're leading right now by less than 1%. Considering there's been a decent, though not complete, sorting out of dixiecrats changing their registration to R, this bodes extremely well for Democrats. Basically, in 2008 *when Dems barely won Florida* the GOP had a 6% in REGISTRATION TURNOUT advantage, which probably understated their lead because of the higher number of Dixiecrats, but now, with a lot of those same Dixiecrats now registered as Republicans, voter reg numbers are even. This does not include NPAs which tend to be dems in Florida.

[The Other Castro]

Trump is telling people not to vote by mail in Colorado:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/30/politics/donald-trump-write-in-ballots/index.html

[Speed of Sound]

Trump is telling people not to vote by mail in Colorado:

Brilliant.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump is telling people not to vote by mail in Colorado:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/30/politics/donald-trump-write-in-ballots/index.html

From that story:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Isn't the idea to sow confusion on the other side?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Trump is telling people not to vote by mail in Colorado:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/30/politics/donald-trump-write-in-ballots/index.html

From that story:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Isn't the idea to sow confusion on the other side?

Considering the only proven case of voter fraud this season was by a Trump-supporting simpleton...

[dspNY]

Trump is telling people not to vote by mail in Colorado:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/30/politics/donald-trump-write-in-ballots/index.html

ROFLMAO

[OneJ]

Trump is telling people not to vote by mail in Colorado:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/30/politics/donald-trump-write-in-ballots/index.html

From that story:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Isn't the idea to sow confusion on the other side?

This is great!

[Speed of Sound]

Ralston reminds why ties in Washoe are actually wins for Clinton:

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And Bonier is another voice of "NV is basically toast" (his 44k margin doesn't include today's Clark, which isn't out yet):

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[henster]

Black turnout down across the board pretty much everywhere, is nobody going to talk about this?

[Speed of Sound]

Black turnout down across the board pretty much everywhere, is nobody going to talk about this?

Not until any poll or projection of early voting shows Clinton doing anything less than killing Trump, no.

[HillOfANight]

I mention it with every CNN update which is every day.

[ApatheticAustrian]

black turnout isn't soooo extremely down.....from a high point....like everbody else's turnout is also up.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

black turnout isn't soooo extremely down.....from a high point....like everbody else's turnout is also up.

Stop feeding him, he's just emerged from his hole. He's one of the three-four posters who disappear when everything is great for Clinton then awakens to stalk us when things get even slightly wonky with peals of "I told you so!!!" Only to disappear.