The absentee/early vote thread

[swf541]

I voted yesterday for Trump, McGinty, PA Att General, & PA Treasurer.

Is there a lot of McGinty/ Trump voters?

[Speed of Sound]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  27m27 minutes ago
Current FL active voter demos:

13.4% black
15.6% Hispanic
64% white

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  33m33 minutes ago
Of the 3.6m votes cast in FL (EIP & VBM) thru Sunday:
11.3% by blacks
13.5% by Hispanics
70.3% by whites

Good?

Not sure that's the case. FWIW, those are slightly worse for Dems in each demo compared to the 2012 exit polls (not that that's a perfect model at all).

EDIT: his followup tweets confirm that these aren't great demo numbers, really. Weird that we're running so close to 2012 party numbers, then.....

[BoAtlantis]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  27m27 minutes ago
Current FL active voter demos:

13.4% black
15.6% Hispanic
64% white

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  33m33 minutes ago
Of the 3.6m votes cast in FL (EIP & VBM) thru Sunday:
11.3% by blacks
13.5% by Hispanics
70.3% by whites

Good?

Not sure that's the case. FWIW, those are slightly worse for Dems in each demo compared to the 2012 exit polls (not that that's a perfect model at all). But I guess non-whites might come out stronger closer to/on election day?

I read that Millennials and black voters should start to vote at a higher rate than last week as the Election Day nears. If they're still at the same pace as they were last week, it signals trouble.

[Classic Conservative]

I voted yesterday for Trump, McGinty, PA Att General, & PA Treasurer.

Is there a lot of McGinty/ Trump voters?

Well Smilo and Sparks are both so, there's a probably a large number.

[Maxwell]

Voting TRUMP/McGinty is a very hipster/Atlas position, so I'm going to guess not really very many.

[Ozymandias]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  11m11 minutes ago Washington, DC
The early vote tracker in North Carolina updated--and corrected. I'm sorry for screwing up, described in this image: https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/793145685013069824

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  8m8 minutes ago Washington, DC
The main take away from our NC early vote tracker so far: our expectations for the composition of the electorate haven't budged at all

In reply to Nate Cohn
Kenny Johnson ‏@dodgingcars  6m6 minutes ago
@Nate_Cohn it doesn't seem like the lower than 2012 AA vote is hurting her.  I wonder why? Is she wooing more of of the Romney voters?

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  5m5 minutes ago Washington, DC
Nate Cohn Retweeted Kenny Johnson
Our estimate was the black share of electorate would fall to 21.4% from 23. Lower black turnout was baked in

[Speed of Sound]

So fixing the error dropped Clinton by .8%, but that still leaves their projection as Clinton winning by ~5. The weekend didn't move that number much (outside the error). So far so good in NC....if Cohn is right. The actual numbers on the ground without any extrapolation are just a big blur right now.

[BoAtlantis]

Doesn't relate to early vote/absentee but
LOL David Plouffe overconfident as ever

https://twitter.com/davidplouffe/status/792789574367842304

"Clinton path to 300+ rock solid. Structure of race not affected by Comey's reckless irresponsibility. Vote and volunteer, don't fret or wet"

Maybe he should remedy some bed-wetters in Atlas

[PresidentTRUMP]

So NC went R in 2012 and the AA vote is down right now by 18% yet you all are saying NC looks great for HRC right now? Obama lost in 2012 by 1-2% and the AA vote was 18% higher at this time last year no matter the reason for the lower turnout, yet NC again looks so good for her? Please explain.

[Brittain33]

So NC went R in 2012 and the AA vote is down right now by 18% yet you all are saying NC looks great for HRC right now? Obama lost in 2012 by 1-2% and the AA vote was 18% higher at this time last year no matter the reason for the lower turnout, yet NC again looks so good for her? Please explain.

College-educated white voters swinging wildly to Dems.

[Speed of Sound]

Doesn't relate to early vote/absentee but
LOL David Plouffe overconfident as ever

https://twitter.com/davidplouffe/status/792789574367842304

"Clinton path to 300+ rock solid. Structure of race not affected by Comey's reckless irresponsibility. Vote and volunteer, don't fret or wet"

Maybe he should remedy some bed-wetters in Atlas

I suppose it's good not to see him trying to pretend only about a firmish firewall, but otherwise he's as useless a metric for what's actually happening as a heavy partisan for anyone is.

[Dr. Arch]

So NC went R in 2012 and the AA vote is down right now by 18% yet you all are saying NC looks great for HRC right now? Obama lost in 2012 by 1-2% and the AA vote was 18% higher at this time last year no matter the reason for the lower turnout, yet NC again looks so good for her? Please explain.

The dynamics of the race are different. We're expecting higher Hispanic turnout and for HRC to pick up a significantly larger share of the educated vote, both of these must be factored in when looking at NC and FL, respectively.

Note that there will almost surely be a lot of crossover vote from normally R Cuban-American voters at the presidential ticket. Similarly, in NC, a state with a significant chunk of an educated populace, even though the AA turnout is down for now, the educated White vote will be propelling her to compensate for that and beyond what Obama did in 2012.

[Yank2133]

So NC went R in 2012 and the AA vote is down right now by 18% yet you all are saying NC looks great for HRC right now? Obama lost in 2012 by 1-2% and the AA vote was 18% higher at this time last year no matter the reason for the lower turnout, yet NC again looks so good for her? Please explain.

She is offsetting the decline AA with college educated whites.

[PresidentTRUMP]

So NC went R in 2012 and the AA vote is down right now by 18% yet you all are saying NC looks great for HRC right now? Obama lost in 2012 by 1-2% and the AA vote was 18% higher at this time last year no matter the reason for the lower turnout, yet NC again looks so good for her? Please explain.

College-educated white voters swinging wildly to Dems.

How could you possibly know the above to be true? Even if true, trump will off-set that with whites with a high school degree or less who went Obama in 2012.

Are states actually showing the percentage for each candidate each day or is that all based on "assumptions"? If they are can you please provide the website so i can check the daily percentages per candidate. Thanks.

[JerryArkansas]

So NC went R in 2012 and the AA vote is down right now by 18% yet you all are saying NC looks great for HRC right now? Obama lost in 2012 by 1-2% and the AA vote was 18% higher at this time last year no matter the reason for the lower turnout, yet NC again looks so good for her? Please explain.

College-educated white voters swinging wildly to Dems.

How could you possibly know the above to be true?

The polls, all of them.

[GeorgiaModerate]

In Georgia's four most populous counties, as of this morning:

Fulton: 22% of RV have already voted
DeKalb: 19%
Cobb: 14%
Gwinnett: 13%

Source: http://www.ajc.com/news/local/dekalb-county-leader-early-voting/8HFkR2iBp6L2uGDLgQkd2M/

In raw terms this would appear to be positive for the Democrats, but I have no idea how it compares to a similar point in 2012.

[BoAtlantis]

Doesn't relate to early vote/absentee but
LOL David Plouffe overconfident as ever

https://twitter.com/davidplouffe/status/792789574367842304

"Clinton path to 300+ rock solid. Structure of race not affected by Comey's reckless irresponsibility. Vote and volunteer, don't fret or wet"

Maybe he should remedy some bed-wetters in Atlas

I suppose it's good not to see him trying to pretend only about a firmish firewall, but otherwise he's as useless a metric for what's actually happening as a heavy partisan for anyone is.

Yea it was meant to be only half-serious.

[PresidentTRUMP]

So NC went R in 2012 and the AA vote is down right now by 18% yet you all are saying NC looks great for HRC right now? Obama lost in 2012 by 1-2% and the AA vote was 18% higher at this time last year no matter the reason for the lower turnout, yet NC again looks so good for her? Please explain.

College-educated white voters swinging wildly to Dems.

How could you possibly know the above to be true?

The polls, all of them.

Ohhh the "polls" are, you mean the polls for example showing CLinton a week ago up 15% in a 4 way national race which is basically mathematically impossible? Or do you mean ALL of the polls showing Clinton up 20-35% in the Michigan Primary all the way up until the night before the primary, when she lost by 1-2 % to Sanders in the State. OVER a 20% swing of "all of the polls were showing". Those polls are what you guys are going off of, okay than.

Thought we had actual data showing who voted for who with all of the celebrating, lol. Was wondering if they were giving that info out on a daily basis, i didn't think they were but wasn't sure.

[BoAtlantis]

[PresidentTRUMP]

Find this board to funny, literally. Were tracking Texas like it might actually go D this cycle LOL. Only on atlas. No tracking or polls for the most part showing that Wisconsin, Minn & PA are within 3-5%. But were keeping daily totals on Texas because Hillary is going to flip that state LOL. Give me a break already.

What about daily Polls in the 3 above states, NM, NH and Michigan and see what they look like if we poll them everyday. No reason i guess because the Media has told us every one of those states is a lock for Clinton and she has double digit leads in all of them. Yet we have polls daily with Georgia and Arizona. 

[Brittain33]

Ohhh the "polls" are, you mean the polls for example showing CLinton a week ago up 15% in a 4 way national race which is basically mathematically impossible? Or do you mean ALL of the polls showing Clinton up 20-35% in the Michigan Primary all the way up until the night before the primary, when she lost by 1-2 % to Sanders in the State. OVER a 20% swing of "all of the polls were showing". Those polls are what you guys are going off of, okay than.

Well, if you don't find polls to be of any value or meaning, you won't find much to talk about on this forum for the next eight days.

[HillOfANight]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-coalition-hispanic-support-is-up-black-turnout-is-down/

In Florida, the good news for Clinton is that the two most Latino counties in the state, Miami-Dade and Osceola, are above the state average in their progress towards exceeding 2012 early/vote-by-mail turnout.

But the bad news for her is that turnout has lagged behind the state average in all five counties with the highest percentage of African-American voters

Lee County, a GOP bastion on the southwest Gulf Coast, is already at 125 percent of its 2012 total, and Sumter County, the ruby red home of The Villages, is at 104 percent, signaling increased GOP enthusiasm.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Find this board to funny, literally. Were tracking Texas like it might actually go D this cycle LOL. Only on atlas. No tracking or polls for the most part showing that Wisconsin, Minn & PA are within 3-5%. But were keeping daily totals on Texas because Hillary is going to flip that state LOL. Give me a break already.

What about daily Polls in the 3 above states, NM, NH and Michigan and see what they look like if we poll them everyday. No reason i guess because the Media has told us every one of those states is a lock for Clinton and she has double digit leads in all of them. Yet we have polls daily with Georgia and Arizona. 

You are mixing apples and oranges.  Polls and early voting data are entirely different things.

[BuckeyeNut]

Interesting finding in Ohio:

While early turnout is down in Franklin, Hamilton, Cuyahoga, and Montgomery counties, turnout is up in the actual cities of Columbus, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Dayton. Cincinnati and Columbus have cleared their 2012 totals, even though there's one week less of early voting this year.

[Dr. Arch]

Interesting finding in Ohio:

While early turnout is down in Franklin, Hamilton, Cuyahoga, and Montgomery counties, turnout is up in the actual cities of Columbus, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Dayton. Cincinnati and Columbus have cleared their 2012 totals, even though there's one week less of early voting this year.

Disaffected moderates?